The 2024 U.S. Presidential race

[Cindy Claveau]

MAGA thinks E. Coli outbreak at McDonald’s is a CDC plot to harm Trump

Sidenote: Everybody else thinks Trump is doing plenty of his own damage to his campaign without any help.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Trump and Gabbard having a good time.

 

[Free]

While this is almost certainly prima facie illegal under British election law, it seems to me extraordinary that the people responsible for conducting election polls according to US law don't seem to be treating it as a matter of some urgency to determine its legality under local US laws.

🚨🚨 SCOOP: DOJ sends Musk PAC warning letter

DOJ alerted Elon Musk America PAC lawyer of possible penalties for $1 million voter lottery

www.24sight.news

The Justice Department’s head of election crimes sent a warning letter to Elon Musk’s America PAC Monday, alerting it that it was a crime to knowingly offer anything of value to register to vote or vote, a person familiar with the warning letter told 24sight News.

Robert Heberle, the head of the Justice Department’s election crimes branch, wrote in the brief warning letter to America PAC lawyer Chris Gober, that offering anything of value to influence voting was in violation of U.S. law barring payments to sway votes.

The warning letter did not specify any immediate legal action, according to the person familiar with the DOJ warning to Musk, but it did spell out the penalties for breaking U.S. voting laws, including possible imprisonment of up to five years.

 

[Casey Pelous]

If Musk isn't careful this could go on his permanent record!

 

[Free]

If Musk isn't careful this could go on his permanent record!

Beh, he'll just fly off to Mars and start over.

 

[Soen Eber]

Beh, he'll just fly off to Mars and start over.

Please? *Hopes and prays*

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

Do I need a drink? Do I need a really stiff drink?

Oh, good! I was starting to think maybe I had just a bit too much!

 

[Free]

You know what this means? AI images and video of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are ramping up to the extreme. Keep any eagle eye out!

Why Are Trump Supporters Suddenly Freaked Out About Deepfakes?

Trump has previously called real videos of himself doing something embarrassing "fake" or AI.

gizmodo.com

 

[Khamon]

Musk needs a felony on his record. He's behind the curve and he knows it. They won't put him in jail because he's too big to fail.

 

[Free]

Nothing weird going on here.

 

[Scylla Rhiadra]

I'd love to believe this, but . . . pretty much every poll I'm seeing is showing Harris trending slowly but steadily down, especially in the "battleground" states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. I can't believe that's all the impact of fake polls.

I'm really starting to think she's going to lose this, god help us all.

https://x.com/CarlosEGates1/status/1849550461134688352

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

I'd love to believe this, but . . . pretty much every poll I'm seeing is showing Harris trending slowly but steadily down, especially in the "battleground" states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. I can't believe that's all the impact of fake polls.

I'm really starting to think she's going to lose this, god help us all.

https://x.com/CarlosEGates1/status/1849550461134688352

Agreed. I'm very worried about what will happen. I have no confidence Harris will win. This election is in the hands of a small number of very uneducated people in swing states no matter what the wider country wants.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I'd love to believe this, but . . . pretty much every poll I'm seeing is showing Harris trending slowly but steadily down, especially in the "battleground" states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. I can't believe that's all the impact of fake polls.

I'm really starting to think she's going to lose this, god help us all.

https://x.com/CarlosEGates1/status/1849550461134688352

I posted this earlier in the week, but it really is worth taking a look at this lengthy but very readable and accessible explanation of why polls shouldn't be taken particularly seriously

The Garden of Forking Paths | Brian Klaas | Substack

Wandering around an infinitely complex, ever-changing world. Click to read The Garden of Forking Paths, by Brian Klaas, a Substack publication.

www.forkingpaths.co

Evernote Link

Basically, the only thing we can reliably take from the polls is that neither candidate is going to win by a landslide.

In this edition, I’m going to:

• Walk you through how modern polls work (it’s not how you think and it has changed, even since 2020);
• Give you the tools to think smarter about polling errors and explain why official margins of error are absurdly and unjustifiably overconfident;
• Explain where polls end up going wrong with various forms of bias;
• Argue that—believe it or not—we still don’t know how accurate past polls have been (and may not for some time);
• Emphasize what’s unique about this presidential election that introduces new forms of polling uncertainty.

I learned a lot from it.

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

It shouldn't even be close! How are so many Americans okay with electing a traitorous, Fascist felon in any office, let alone that of the President of the United States?

 

[Free]

Apparently one thing that can scare Musk off is the threat of going to jail.

Musk's super PAC doesn't name daily $1 million winner after DOJ warning

Elon Musk's super PAC did not announce a lottery winner Wednesday in its daily $1 million giveaway that sparked concern from legal experts and prompted a warning from the Justice Department.

We'll have to see if an announcement for a winner today also doesn't occur.

 

[Essence Lumin]

It shouldn't even be close! How are so many Americans okay with electing a traitorous, Fascist felon in any office, let alone that of the President of the United States?

This whole Trump idolization thing makes me feel ill. How can such a large portion of the population be so dumb and deluded? NJ has early in person voting starting Saturday. I know where I will be going.

 

[WolfEyes]

It shouldn't even be close! How are so many Americans okay with electing a traitorous, Fascist felon in any office, let alone that of the President of the United States?

Maybe because they are also traitorous, fascist felons. At least traitorous and fascist if not convicted felons.

 

[Free]

'This video is fake': Key battleground state county smacks down hoax of destroyed ballots

A large suburban Pennsylvania county smacked down what it called a "fake" video showing mail-in ballots being destroyed.Bucks County — one of four Philly suburban counties that proved crucial for President Joe Biden when he flipped the state from red to blue in 2020 — said in a news release...

www.rawstory.com

Bucks County [PA] — one of four Philly suburban counties that proved crucial for President Joe Biden when he flipped the state from red to blue in 2020 — said in a news release Thursday that it was made aware of a video circulating Thursday afternoon on social media purporting to show mail-in ballots being opened — and destroyed.

"This video is fake," the county said.

Officials added: "The envelope and materials depicted in this video are clearly not authentic materials belonging to or distributed by the Bucks County Board of Elections."

“This type of behavior is meant to sow division and distrust in our election systems, and makes a mockery of the people working incredibly hard to ensure a free and fair election is carried out," the state's Elections Board said in a bipartisan statement. "The Board of Elections unequivocally condemns this purposeful spreading of dangerous disinformation. We will not be distracted from the job the voters of Bucks County have entrusted to us.”

Every report of something like this need to do the same: put the fear of Adonis in them that when they do it, they'll be arrested, prosecuted and imprisoned.

 

[Scylla Rhiadra]

I posted this earlier in the week, but it really is worth taking a look at this lengthy but very readable and accessible explanation of why polls shouldn't be taken particularly seriously

The Garden of Forking Paths | Brian Klaas | Substack

Wandering around an infinitely complex, ever-changing world. Click to read The Garden of Forking Paths, by Brian Klaas, a Substack publication.

www.forkingpaths.co

Evernote Link

Basically, the only thing we can reliably take from the polls is that neither candidate is going to win by a landslide.



I learned a lot from it.

Thank you, Innula. That was somewhat reassuring (in the same way that being reminded that only one of six chambers in the revolver contains an actual bullet is "reassuring"!)

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Polls used to be able to define a Likely Voter as someone who voted in the last two elections. That assumption has been blown up by a lot of factors.

State ballot measures on abortion, gerrymandering, minimum wage, and cannabis will potentially bring a very different mix of voters in some states. Trump has mobilized non-voters in rural communities while Harris is motivating young people. There are a lot of factors in play that make this hard to model.