The US-Iran War Has Begun

[Innula Zenovka]

War Crimes Seem To Be Official US Policy Now

We Will Rue The Day

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Attacking other infrastructure was probably a war crime as well (think bridges or power plants) but there can at least be arguments made that these are dual use facilities. Militaries use bridges, military production uses generated electricity. If the US destroyed all the bridges in Iran or shut off all the power, as Trump has threatened numerous times, I would definitely consider it a war crime. However, lawyers could try and argue that because of military use, these are allowable targets.

However, a reservoir serving a civilian community is unarguably a crime. The military will get its water somehow, the civilians will suffer. And note, this is one of the hottest and driest places on the globe. Academic data for the Sirik region confirms that summer temperatures routinely peak between 45°C and 48.5°C during the warmest months. That is over 115 degrees Fahrenheit. That is comparable to Death Valley in California.

A human being cannot live long in such a climate without water—so either the locals will die of dehydration or, more likely, some will drink contaminated water and die from that.

Either way the US has attacked, seemingly deliberately, a facility vital to the maintenance of human life that has no discernible military utility. So yes, it is a war crime.

 

[Free]

Iran Adds Elon Musk Companies To List Of Military Targets, State Media Reports

Elon Musk’s assets in the Middle East could soon be under threat of attack by Iran’s Military, state media reported Thursday, including Starlink and X operations in Arab countries and Israel.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Reuters: Mediator Pakistan says US and Iran expected to sign initial deal within 24 hours

Time will tell, of course. But it's come to something that many people -- and I'm certainly one of them -- now regard US official sources talking about the war with Iran as about as reliable as was Comical Ali in Iraq, and certainly as less reliable than Pakistan's officials.

 

[Beebo Brink]

Time will tell, of course. But it's come to something that many people -- and I'm certainly one of them -- now regard US official sources talking about the war with Iran as about as reliable as was Comical Ali in Iraq, and certainly as less reliable than Pakistan's officials.

I completely dismissed yet another deal announcement, too, but JVL of the Bulwark had an interesting take on this last night. He thinks this time there's really a deal taking place because Trump cannot resist the optics of "winning" the Iran War on his birthday celebration weekend and tying it to the UFC cage match event.

Of course, the devil is in the details. JVL predicts that the "deal" will be some vague, non-binding intent to blah blah blah. Trump will give the Iranians everything they want, claim it's a victory for the U.S. and just walk away from the entire mess leaving Iran and Oman in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[Govi]

Reuters: Mediator Pakistan says US and Iran expected to sign initial deal within 24 hours

Time will tell, of course. But it's come to something that many people -- and I'm certainly one of them -- now regard US official sources talking about the war with Iran as about as reliable as was Comical Ali in Iraq, and certainly as less reliable than Pakistan's officials.

Was Comical Ali the same person as Baghdad Bob?

 

[detrius]

Was Comical Ali the same person as Baghdad Bob?

"Hey, remember when America's wars of aggression were funny?"

 

[Govi]

"Hey, remember when America's wars of aggression were funny?"

If any were funny, it was the most somber kind of ironic humor. "War is hell." Sherman was right. The reason Baghdad Bob/Comical Ali are of interest to me is because we have a modern version, equally somber in his uninterntional humor: Tehran Don disseminating his Hormuz Hokum.

 

[Beebo Brink]

I completely dismissed yet another deal announcement, too, but JVL of the Bulwark had an interesting take on this last night. He thinks this time there's really a deal taking place because Trump cannot resist the optics of "winning" the Iran War on his birthday celebration weekend and tying it to the UFC cage match event.

JVL nailed it, down to the meaningless letter of intent they are all signing so both sides can walk away. Afterward, Iran will continue to monetize the Strait of Hormuz and Trump will just ignore it because he doesn't care.

For this, we have bombed and killed, depleted our weapons stocks, drained the strategic oil reserve, and lost even more standing in the new global world order that is forming around Canada, Europe and China.

 

[Free]

Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social)

The US and Iran have overcome every obstacle to peace except one small remaining disagreement: who won.

bsky.app

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Couch lover JD Vance announced that Trump might publish the deal in all detail this Friday.

In the meantime what we do know is bad news for Netanyahu, because part of the deal is an end of the war in Lebanon.

Also some sources reported that the US will pay $300bn as reparations to Iran; Trump denied that so far.

Trump could release US-Iran deal before Friday, Vance says

The US vice-president says the agreement is "about a page and a half" and "very general", meaning many details will be worked out later.

www.bbc.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The Eagle’s Graveyard is in the Persian Gulf

An interview with Andrew Gawthorpe on institutional collapse, Iran's strategic patience, and the end of American primacy in the Middle East.

eliasrutten.substack.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

America's loss is also China's gain. Let's not forget about that, even if not really mentioned in that substack.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

America's loss is also China's gain. Let's not forget about that, even if not really mentioned in that substack.

It does, though, make the point that

Interceptors are in desperate demand everywhere at once: Ukraine, the US presence in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan. The Iran conflict has burned through something like five to ten years’ worth of stocks that were already considered dangerously low, and it will take another five to ten to replace them. Long-range strike capability — Tomahawks and the like — has gone the same way, and all of it is precisely the inventory needed to fight a war with China. “They’ve essentially taken a whole bunch of capability from the European and Indo-Pacific theatres and burned it in the Middle East.” Factor in ground troops, or simply holding forces in the region, and the bill runs to tens or hundreds of billions — money meant for rebuilding the military to face China. “Here we are again, just like the Bush years, getting bogged down in the Middle East while China is quietly getting its act together in the Indo-Pacific.”

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

Also some sources reported that the US will pay $300bn as reparations to Iran; Trump denied that so far.

And Republicans bitched when Obama sent a couple billion of Iran's own money to them.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Also some sources reported that the US will pay $300bn as reparations to Iran; Trump denied that so far.

I think that came from satirical sources. .....but if it ends up being real, that could really be the final nail in his coffin.

That would deeply anger a lot of conservatives who can make excuses for basically anything other than losing a war. Some of his "true believers" will still just lie about it of course but this would be a very deep humiliation for Trump.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I think that came from satirical sources. .....but if it ends up being real, that could really be the final nail in his coffin.

That would deeply anger a lot of conservatives who can make excuses for basically anything other than losing a war...

...Trump started. Fixed that for you.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

...Trump started. Fixed that for you.

True, but even if Trump didn't start the war, him losing it wouldn't be great for the egos of his supporters.

And.... yeah... this would be the first time the USA formally lost a war where we actually paid the enemy compensation, I believe. Even with disasters like Vietnam, we didn't pay them unless I'm mistaken?

 

[Veritable Quandry]

The fund is apparently being funded by other Gulf states.

eta: It looks like the deal provides up to $300 billion in financing. Not in aid or reparations.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

There is, we are told, a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US, to be signed electronically on Friday.

What, though, is a Memorandum of Understanding, exactly? David Allen Green explains what it means and what (mostly) it doesn't in English law

In essence, when there has been a negotiation and a Memorandum of Understanding is an output, then there has been a deliberate decision by one or more parties for there not to have anything more binding. That decision can be for a good reason or a bad reason, or both. But there would have been a decision.

What is a Memorandum of Understanding?

These legal-sounding documents are often not what they seem

emptycity.substack.com

Does the term have any greater significance in the US?

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Same here. It is a common understanding but is not legally binding.

In the US, the President can sign a MoU for international agreements that do not require any changes to US law or budget. It is carried out entirely by Executive action.

An Agreement, like the North American Free Trade Agreement, requires Congress to pass it through both houses before it is binding.

A Treaty requires at a minimum a 2/3rds vote of support in the Senate. It may also require enabling legislation that goes through both chambers.

But using a Memorandum of Understanding, Trump can bypass Congress entirely. None of the funds are from the US Treasury, so he does not need a budget line. Sanctions relief is more complex, as some sanctions are discretionary and left to Executive determination while others are statutory and can not be waived without Congress. But Republicans will block any action Congress could take to enforce sanctions. It relies on an Executive branch that is committed to the rule of law.