The US-Iran War Has Begun

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The real question is, what even are those goals?

Keeping Netanyahu in office by fabricating a war so that Israel's jurisdiction cannot put him on trial before court for corruption.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Keeping Netanyahu in office by fabricating a war so that Israel's jurisdiction cannot put him on trial before court for corruption.

yeah.... it seems like forbidding elections or trials of leaders during war is one of the worst things a country can do. Very easy to exploit and gives terrible incentives. No one leader is that valuable. I have nothing against Zelenskyy, but Bibi is definitely riding that out.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

yeah.... it seems like forbidding elections or trials of leaders during war is one of the worst things a country can do. Very easy to exploit and gives terrible incentives. No one leader is that valuable. I have nothing against Zelenskyy, but Bibi is definitely riding that out.

Netanyahu's trial is taking place right now

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-allowed-to-end-days-testimony-in-criminal-trial-early-reason-unclear/

The next elections are scheduled to be held by October 27 this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

It's political calculation by the various coalition partners that's preventing their being held early, not any constitutional prohibition. The war is clearly a major factor in those calculations but, unlike in Ukraine, there's no legal or constitutional reason they couldn't be held early, afaik.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Netanyahu's trial is taking place right now

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-allowed-to-end-days-testimony-in-criminal-trial-early-reason-unclear/

The next elections are scheduled to be held by October 27 this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

It's political calculation of the various coalition partners that's preventing their being held early, not any constitutional prohibition. The war is clearly a major factor in those calculations but, unlike in Ukraine, there's no legal or constitutional reason they couldn't be held early, afaik.

Thanks, I read some missinformation (or oversimplified information) suggesting the wars were delaying Bibi's trial directly.

 

[Cristiano]

Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies

Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Free]

Yes, how dare Iran try to blow up our ships that are attacking them. How dare they.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Who will blink first?

There was a famous moment during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when news came through to President Kennedy and his advisors that the Soviet ships they feared were about to challenge the US blockade of Cuba had turned away.

samf.substack.com

Evernote Link (Substack paywall)

(Please let me know if the formatting for the Evernote link is off -- it looks OK to me in Web view but is strange inside my Evernote desktop app).

 

[Innula Zenovka]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia Slammed the Door on Trump's "Operation Project Freedom" — and There is no “Forthcoming Deal.” It's the Cover Story

Saudi Arabia yanked airbase access out from Trump's “Project Freedom,” collapsed the operation in 36 hours, and now the White House is selling us a peace deal nobody can actually point to.

deanblundell.substack.com

So on Sunday, May 3, Trump gets on Truth Social and announces Project Freedom: a U.S. Navy operation to “guide” stranded ships out of the Strait. Two carrier strike groups. 15,000 service members. Over 100 aircraft. The Pentagon goes loud. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper does the press tour. Rubio does the “left for dead” humanitarian framing at the White House. The whole apparatus is mobilized.

It begins Monday. Two American-flagged ships make it through. Iran fires cruise missiles, drones, and small boats at the convoy. The IRGC claims it hit a U.S. destroyer (the U.S. denies it). The UAE gets bombarded.

By Tuesday evening, it’s over.

Trump’s stated reason: “Project Freedom will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”

The actual reason, per NBC: MBS pulled the plug. Here’s why.

Spoiler -- this may have had something to do with it

Late March 2026. Trump is at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Florida — a Saudi-backed investment forum, it should be noted, hosted on American soil with Saudi money in the room. The war in Iran is roughly four weeks old. MBS is publicly cautious, privately (per multiple reports) supportive of degrading Iranian capability, and walking the tightest tightrope of his career.

And Trump, in front of cameras, decides to riff:

“He didn’t think this was going to happen … he didn’t think he’d be kissing my ass … he thought it’d be just another American President that was a loser … but now he has to be nice to me.”

Damage done.

 

[Ellie]

Thanks, I read some missinformation (or oversimplified information) suggesting the wars were delaying Bibi's trial directly.

Netanyahu's testimony in his graft trial was also canceled last week, after the Iran war caused a two-month hiatus in the trial. Since Washington and Tehran agreed on a cease-fire in early April, the prime minister has only testified twice...

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-05-05/ty-article/.premium/judges-agree-to-move-netanyahu-trial-hearing-over-security-schedule/0000019d-f772-df01-a3dd-f7fb11380000

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Hmm. This seems significant

What is China’s anti-sanctions law and how does it work?

Beijing's order blocking US sanctions on five oil refineries marks first invocation of 2021 law.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-05-05/ty-article/.premium/judges-agree-to-move-netanyahu-trial-hearing-over-security-schedule/0000019d-f772-df01-a3dd-f7fb11380000

Both that and the Times of Israel link I posted suggest that the proceedings were postponed (again) to allow Netanyahu to deal with his Prime Ministerial responsibilities, not that the trial itself is postponed until he leaves office. He's apparently in the middle of giving evidence, and that was adjourned early after 2 hours yesterday May 6th). He's back in court on Monday, apparently, to complete his evidence on that particular charge (not sure where it's got to on the others).

He's standing trial and giving evidence right now, though it's moving a lot slower than a normal trial because the court seems (perhaps not surprisingly) sympathetic to requests to accommodate some of his official duties.

 

[Ellie]

He's standing trial and giving evidence right now, though it's moving a lot slower than a normal trial because the court seems (perhaps not surprisingly) sympathetic to requests to accommodate some of his official duties.

Of course "Bibi's Prime Ministerial responsibilities" especially the multi-country genocide, ethnic cleansing & land grabs tend to keep the PM rather busy.

You've heard of the the Epstein files? Here's (drum roll) Bibi Files the movie!

The Bibi Files contains leaked footage of the Israeli PM being interrogated by police over allegations of corruption – and argues that these are partly why he has taken the region into the abyss.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/dec/02/benjamin-netanyahu-bibi-files-israeli-corruption

Netanyahu is charged with the crime of fraud and breach of trust in the three cases against him, as well as one charge of accepting a bribe in the form of positive media coverage in one of those cases. The trial began in 2020 and is expected to last at least into 2027, not including potential appeals.

Secret deal to end Netanyahu trial fell apart over PM’s refusal to step down — source

 

[Free]

CIA analysis suggests Iran can withstand U.S. naval blockade for months - WaPo

Investing.com -- A confidential CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the current U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months. This finding contrad...

www.yahoo.com

A confidential CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the current U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months. This finding contradicts assertions of an imminent collapse, suggesting the regime may endure longer than some officials anticipated.

According to reporting from the Washington Post, citing a U.S. official, intelligence indicates Iran retains approximately 75% of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers. The report further notes that the regime still holds about 70% of its pre-war missile stockpiles.

Iranian forces have also successfully recovered underground storage facilities and repaired damaged missiles. These internal assessments provide a stark contrast to recent public claims regarding the degradation of the nation’s military hardware.

 

[Noodles]

Dumb conapiracy thought.

This nonsense with the Straight and gas pricing is to build pressure for eventual support of going back to using Russia for oil. And all it will cost is giving up Ukraine.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Iran damaged far more equipment in the first days of the war than the US Military admitted. The Washington Post has a lengthy article about it including satellite images.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Midweek Update #10: Little Changes In US-Iran, Potentially Lots With US-China

What Did The Bombing Campaign Accomplish?; Will China Save The US With Iran?

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Trump is off to China, and there is a very good chance that he basically sells the farm to the Chinese to try and win Xi over. Trump is going to China as a supplicant not a dominant power, and the Iran war is a key part of that. The fact that the US now hopes China helps them tells you everything you need to know about the state of the relationship between the world’s two largest powers, and specifically how much weaker the US has become because of this war.

 

[Free]

If we change the name, we get a do-over. Right?

Pentagon considering renaming Iran war ‘Sledgehammer’ if ceasefire collapses

A White House official tells NBC News says any new military combat operations against Iran would be conducted under a new name and operation.

www.nbcnews.com

The U.S. military is considering officially renaming the war with Iran “Operation Sledgehammer” if the current ceasefire collapses and President Donald Trump decides to re-start major combat operations, according to two U.S. officials.

The discussions about possibly replacing “Operation Epic Fury” with “Operation Sledgehammer” underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war.

You could have a bumper car, bumping
This amusement never ends