The US-Iran War Has Begun

[Innula Zenovka]

Trump says US may strike Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub ‘just for fun’

Trump’s comments come as he renewed his call Saturday for other nations to help secure the strait of Hormuz and said the US will coordinate with them amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.

“The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help – A LOT,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

He added that “the US will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well. This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be – It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace!”

This, I am sure, will encourage everyone to join his efforts. "Just for fun," indeed!

 

[Free]

Put us girls in the fight, Mr. President!

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

We will win so much that you'll get tired of winning... good news: America won against Iran in Trump's bird brain!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

So the US "has beaten and completely decimated Iran both militarily, economically, and in every other way" but everyone else has to sort out the Strait of Hormuz.

But don't worry, the US "will help -- A LOT!"

Moreover, the US will also coordinate with the those countries so everything goes quickly, smoothly and well, because of course anything coordinated by Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth is just bound to go quickly, smoothly and well.

"This should always have been a team effort", but it's not because Trump dived in unilaterally and now finds it's not quite as easy as he wanted it to be.

I think Trump is gearing up to declare victory and then walk away, or try to, from the mess he's created, leaving everyone else to clean it up, while complaining bitterly when it doesn't happen.

I mean, who could have foreseen any difficulties with the Strait of Hormuz?

Military briefing: How mines could tighten Iran’s Gulf chokehold (Evernote because FT paywall)

Adding to the challenge, the US has allowed its anti-mine capabilities to atrophy for decades and is in the process of retiring its wooden-hulled Avenger-class ships, the navy’s last remaining dedicated minesweepers.

Replacing them are three littoral combat ships in the region that have taken on the role of hunting mines. Unlike dedicated vessels which can move quickly into minefields, these new ships work mine-by-mine by using lasers on helicopters and unmanned vehicles that bounce sonar off their surroundings. “It will be a slow and laborious process,” Wills said.

During the Iran-Iraq war, an Iranian moored contact mine severely damaged the guided missile frigate USS Samuel Roberts in 1988.

But Washington has for decades dedicated less than 1 per cent of its naval budget to mine warfare, despite mines being responsible for almost 80 per cent of US warships sunk or disabled since 1945 and over 75 per cent of its naval casualties since 1950. European nations now have more developed mine-warfare capabilities than the US.

Establishing a passageway through a minefield would require extended effort. Vessels doing the clearing or subsequently using the swept routes would be highly vulnerable as they moved slowly and predictably along them, making it much easier for Iran to target them with missiles and drones, said Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the think-tank Rand.

Savitz, who has previously advised the US on mine warfare, said even a small number of mines would force both commercial and military traffic to consider how much risk they were willing to take.

“You can have an effective minefield with zero mines, if others perceive it as posing a substantial threat,” he said.

Reuters report that

Trump, in a post on his Truth Social platform, urged China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. None of those countries gave any immediate indication they would do so.

Takayuki ⁠Kobayashi, Japan's ruling party policy chief, declined to rule out the possibility, but told public broadcaster NHK that "the (legal) threshold is very high."

Japan interprets its pacifist postwar constitution to mean it can deploy its military if the nation's survival is threatened, but the government would have to invoke a 2015 security law that has not been used.

South Korea's presidential office said it would decide on Trump's request after a "careful ⁠review."

France is seeking to assemble a coalition to secure the strait once the security situation stabilizes, while Britain is discussing a range of options with allies to ensure the security of shipping, officials have said.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

A detailed analysis by one of the UK's leading military/diplomatic experts

The Split-Screen War

Finding a way out of a war gone badly wrong

samf.substack.com

Evernote Link

A couple of observations:

When it comes to what to do about the Strait of Hormuz Hegseth appears spectacularly out of his depth. Although no ships are passing through, Hegseth said that it is actually ‘open’ and that military leaders ‘don’t need to worry about it.’ He added:

‘The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.’​

​

Which is like saying there is no problem with paying back a debt other than a lack of money.

The Pentagon also claims that it has no evidence of mine laying, and Iran has said it has not done so although it does have various means of getting them into the Strait. A more serious concern is still projectiles fired from the coast, including drones as well as missiles, against vessels that cannot get out of range. Recall the difficulties the Houthis have caused firing from Yemen against Red Sea shipping despite efforts to take them out. As Fortune noted in its assessment of this challenge, moving 300 ships in a hostile environment, even if done successfully, would be slow, potentially taking many months, and very expensive.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Dunno about the President being afraid, but after reading this I certainly am

The President of the United States is afraid

Early this afternoon, the President of the United States gave an unscheduled and deeply troubling phone interview to NBC's Chief White House Correspondent, Kristen Welker, while he was spending time at his weekend retreat and private club, Mar-a-Lago. During this nearly 30-minute interview, he...

heatherdelaneyreese.substack.com

And then he went after Zelenskyy. The President of Ukraine, whose country has been fighting off a Russian invasion for four years, and who offered to help the United States and its allies in the Middle East by sending drone experts and interceptor technology. Ukraine knows more about defeating drones than any country on earth, because they’ve been shot at by thousands of them. Zelenskyy sent teams to three countries. Eleven nations requested Ukraine’s help. And Trump’s response? “The last person we need help from is Zelenskyy.” He also told Welker that Zelenskyy is “far more difficult to make a deal with” than Vladimir Putin. Trump said the president of the country being invaded is harder to deal with than the dictator doing the invading.

And here’s where it gets even darker. When Welker asked about reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran about the location of U.S. forces, Trump said, “Russia is perhaps giving information, perhaps they’re not.” He said it like it was inconsequential, but it’s not. Because the connections here are staggering.

We are at war with Iran. Russia is helping Iran. Russia is reportedly feeding Iran intelligence about where American troops and ships are positioned, and Iran is using that information to launch missiles and drones at U.S. assets and our allies across the region. At the same time, Russia is at war with Ukraine. And today, an Iranian parliamentary official declared Ukraine’s entire territory “a legitimate target” because they are sharing their drone interception technology. So the country we are at war with is now threatening to attack the country that Russia is at war with. Iran and Russia are working together. Sides have been picked. And they weren’t picked by us.

ETA: Russia rakes in $150mn a day in extra revenue from surging oil prices (Evernote because FT paywall)

Shipment tracking data from Kpler showed that a “substantial amount” of Russian crude cargoes was currently at sea, much of it moving across the Indian Ocean towards Indian ports, the analytics firm said. Indian imports of Russian oil were running at 1.5mn b/d as of Wednesday, up 50 per cent from early last month, it added.

“If the current shipment schedules, market intelligence and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals for the full month could reach close to 2mn barrels per day,” said Sumit Ritolia, a lead Kpler analyst in New Delhi.

“Russia is the big winner of this conflict,” he added.

 

[Beebo Brink]

This wasn't on my bingo card for 2026.

Ex-Fox News host reveals he's facing criminal probe

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson alleged that the CIA has been intercepting his private communications and is preparing a criminal referral to the Department of Justice, claiming he faces potential charges under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) for communicating with Iranian contacts before the war began.

"The CIA has been reading my texts," Carlson stated. "They have intercepted my private communications with contacts in Iran in the period leading up to the beginning of the current conflict. And on the basis of those texts—texts!—they are preparing to accuse me of being an unregistered foreign agent under FARA."

 

[Casey Pelous]

..."And on the basis of those texts—texts!—they are preparing to accuse me of being an unregistered foreign agent under FARA."

The outrage! FAKE CHARGES! Everyone knows real secret agents would use invisible ink on a paper message left in a Mountain Dew can in the hollow of the third tree on the right as you enter the park from the east. Duh.

 

[Beebo Brink]

For anyone concerned about the fertilizer shortage:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

For anyone concerned about the fertilizer shortage:

The Strait of Hormuz: Iran's oil weapon

The West is in a dependent relationship with Middle Eastern oil

www.newstatesman.com

Evernote Link

My favourite example is probably salt and vinegar crisps. Over the past few years I’ve been compiling a list of products that are unexpectedly made, at least in part, from chemicals derived from oil and gas. Artificial vanilla flavouring, chewing gum, shower gels and, yes, the vinegar flavouring in salt and vinegar crisps, which is (depending on which brand you favour) often made from acetic acid, derived from natural gas. As petrochemical products go, I concede that these are somewhat random, but you get the idea: oil and gas are such pervasive parts of our lives that they are, to all extents and purposes, everywhere.

This came as something of a surprise to most economists in 2022, the last time war triggered a significant spike in energy prices. Their models told them higher wholesale gas prices would show up in the form of higher heating and power bills, which is perfectly logical. But in the following months, it wasn’t just utility bills that went up. So did the price of tomatoes, since they are mostly grown in greenhouses heated with natural gas and are fertilised with nitrogen-based chemicals made from natural gas. So, too, did table salt (produced with the help of boilers powered by, yes, natural gas). An energy price shock rapidly became an everything price shock.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

WSJ analysis of the White House TikTok Channel's coverage of the war

 

[Ellie]

When reported verification times for AI-assisted targets are measured in seconds, we are no longer talking about human judgment with algorithmic assistance. We are talking about rubber-stamping a machine’s output. And when that machine’s data is a decade out of date, the consequences are written in rows of small coffins.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/mar/15/ai-defense-warfare-companies

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Donald Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad future’ if allies fail to help US in Iran Evernote Link because Financial Times paywall.

 

[Free]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

To give you a glimpse: this is Jubail in Saudi Arabia. Jubail is on the east, so Persian Gulf (fotos taken by yours truly).

Jubail is a stately planned development. Until the beginnig of the 80s it' been a dreamy fishing village, today it has got over 200.000 population count.

Jubail is a global centre for petrochemical products, like urea or fertilizers. About 7% of petrochemical products come from here, most from Juibail. Additionally there's also a steel plant.

Jubail on the map:

So the horizon is looking like this:

Also near Jubail: a water desalination plant for local use and Riyadh.

So there's a lot of critical infrastructure located there quite near to Iran. The Saudis are not dumb though. This is why Jubail has a sister development on the west coast of Saudi Arabia named Yanbu, also on the list. Yanbu has its own set of petrochemical plants and own harbour. It's connected to 3 oil pipelines.

Saudi Arabia choose that strategy of diversification for exactly the reason of what we are witnessing right now: Iran mining the street of Hormuz, because in the Red Sea Iran has no direct influence. But nowadays there are the Huthi rebels in the south of it, Iran's proxy.

Jubail and Yanbu are responsible for 2/3 of Saudi Arabia's annual industry production.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Starmer says UK 'will not be drawn into wider war' as he opens No 10 press conference

The war is entering its third week, he says.

He says he has been clear in his objectives.

First, we will protect our people in the region.
Second, while taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war.
And third, we will keep working towards a swift resolution that brings security and stability back to the region and stops the Iranian threat to its neighbours.

 

[Cristiano]

This is a pretty good summary of where things stand with other countries helping the US (well deserved):

Trump spent months calling NATO obsolete. Threatening Canada with the 51st state. Slapping tariffs on allies. Demanding Europe pay up or lose protection. Insulting world leaders to their faces. Abandoning Ukraine. Calling Germany weak and France irrelevant. Now he needs them. France: no. Germany: no. Norway: no. Canada: never. Japan: officially no. Switzerland: airspace closed. You don’t spend a year burning every bridge and then call for backup when the building is on fire. $21 billion spent. 14 Americans dead. Oil at $102. The Strait mined. Taiwan surrounded. Baghdad evacuated. NATO threatened with a “very bad future.” The allies didn’t abandon America. America spent a year telling them to leave. They listened. Never stop connecting the dots.

 

[Free]

Trump warns NATO (again) of ‘very bad future’ if allies don’t secure Strait of Hormuz

“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” says U.S. president as Iran war drags on.

www.politico.eu

I think the "very bad future" is already here.

 

[Cristiano]

So the Internet has gone crazy with speculation that Netanyahu is dead. He disappeared for several days, and then the supposed proof of life videos released of him are quite clearly AI. That is obviously leading to even more speculation that he is dead.



It is certainly interesting. Both #Satanyahu and #NetanyahuIsDead have been trending on X for the past two days, and more and more details of the fake videos have been analyzed. It would certainly be quite a twist if he was taken out by the very war he clamored for.

 

[Casey Pelous]

So the Internet has gone crazy with speculation that Netanyahu is dead. He disappeared for several days, and then the supposed proof of life videos released of him are quite clearly AI. That is obviously leading to even more speculation that he is dead.


It is certainly interesting. Both #Satanyahu and #NetanyahuIsDead have been trending on X for the past two days, and more and more details of the fake videos have been analyzed. It would certainly be quite a twist if he was taken out by the very war he clamored for.

Wouldn't that just fry your butt? You piss away American lives, billions of dollars, and most of your country's stockpile of high-tech weapons blowing up Iran (and your country's economy) for your buddy, and the SOB doesn't have the common courtesy to stay alive long enough to repay the favor? IT'S NOT FAIR!