The Russia-Ukraine War has begun

[Chin Rey]

Thread by @DmitryOpines on Thread Reader App

@DmitryOpines: I wanted to go through this point by point, respectfully and assuming every question raised was in absolute good faith. Note: I know nothing about this man or his politics (though I can guess) and...…

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Dmitry Opines is partly wrong about one thing. He says:

The US **is** contributing a lot of materiel, but Europeans collectively are also sending a lot, both in real terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Europe doesn't just send "a lot", it has sent more than USA.

Here are the numbers from 24th January 2022 to 31st March 2023 in billion Euros according to Statista:

USA:

• FInancial aid: 24.26
• Humanitarian aid: 3.6
• Military aid: 42.84
• Sum: 70.7

Europe:

• Financial aid: 37.67
• Humanitarian aid: 8.42
• Military aid: 35.62
• Sum: 81.71

I probably should include the other contributors too. Combined Japan, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand have provided:

• Financial aid: 11.58
• Humanitarian aid: 2.28
• Military aid: 0.08
• Sum: 13.94

There are also many other nations who have aided Ukraine in various ways but they are not included in Statista's overview.

Source: Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by country & type 2023 | Statista

I suppose we all know by now that the Americans like to talk big words while Europeans tend to be more inclined to work quietly in the background. Most of the time that's ok; if we really wanted to put ourselves forward, we would have done so. But (sorry about the stereotyping here) Americans have a depressing tendency to believe in their own propaganda and when that happens we not only get annoying misinformed rants like that ex-Twitter post but also decisions being made on false premises.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

decisions being made on false premises.

 

[WolfEyes]

Dmitry Opines is partly wrong about one thing. He says:


Europe doesn't just send "a lot", it has sent more than USA.

Here are the numbers from 24th January 2022 to 31st March 2023 in billion Euros according to Statista:

USA:

• FInancial aid: 24.26
• Humanitarian aid: 3.6
• Military aid: 42.84
• Sum: 70.7

Europe:

• Financial aid: 37.67
• Humanitarian aid: 8.42
• Military aid: 35.62
• Sum: 81.71

I probably should include the other contributors too. Combined Japan, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand have provided:

• Financial aid: 11.58
• Humanitarian aid: 2.28
• Military aid: 0.08
• Sum: 13.94

There are also many other nations who have aided Ukraine in various ways but they are not included in Statista's overview.

Source: Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by country & type 2023 | Statista

I suppose we all know by now that the Americans like to talk big words while Europeans tend to be more inclined to work quietly in the background. Most of the time that's ok; if we really wanted to put ourselves forward, we would have done so. But (sorry about the stereotyping here) Americans have a depressing tendency to believe in their own propaganda and when that happens we not only get annoying misinformed rants like that ex-Twitter post but also decisions being made on false premises.

Add the word politicians after American and European and I'll agree with you.

The US is no worse in believing its own propaganda than any other country that depends on propaganda to control the masses. None of this is really new to any "first world" country.

 

[Noodles]

Dmitry Opines is partly wrong about one thing. He says:


Europe doesn't just send "a lot", it has sent more than USA.

I don't know that he was trying to push some sort of "America best" agenda there, just commenting that countries are supporting.

The funny thing is though that your point disproves the OP even moreso.

The OP says something like, "Why is America always footing the bill and why isn't NATO?"

Which feels like its implying "Why isn't Europe", because well, The US is part of NATO, which makes the original question a bit redundant.

And as you have shown, "NATO" is in fact contributing MORE.

Its kind of embarrasing how completely awful that dude's analysis is after promoting his "Purple Heart Vertan" status like its credentials for military knowledge.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

American Exceptionalism is more than just a catch phrase.

 

[Soen Eber]

American Exceptionalism is more than just a catch phrase.

It's a cult.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

American Exceptionalism is more than just a catch phrase.

Yup, and it drives at least this one completely bonkers. Like, seriously, we're really not that exceptional at all. I mean, the 50s prosperity was more from the good fortune of not having WWII hit home that much, excepting Pearl Harbor.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

The Roots of Russian Military Dysfunction

An unwillingness to decentralize decision making authority and a failure to communicate accurate information are the most consequential weaknesses at the state level that have contributed to the Russian military’s subpar performance to date in the war with Ukraine. These characteristics are exacerbated by other historic factors found throughout Russian society, which also permeate the military as a reflection of that society. They include an imperialist national identity, endemic corruption, and societal brutality. To these systemic problems must be added the inherent difficulties of what the Russian military was supposed to achieve in its first major peer conflict since World War Two and elements of simple military incompetence.


The unwillingness to decentralize decision making authority is symptomatic of over five centuries of Russian autocracy. It is why Russia lacks an effective noncommissioned officer (NCO) corps and has a top-down command-and-control system, which is slow to provide timely direction to forces at the front. This is exacerbated by a failure to communicate accurate information, especially at the strategic level, which results in decision making based on faulty information and reinforces bad decisions due to inaccurate feedback.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

According to the World Economics Research institution based in London, UK, Russia's economy became the 5th largest in the world when viewed with purchasing power parity on mind instead only using currency values alone, pushing back Germany on place 6.

Russia Economic Review 2026: Data, Investment & Asset Allocation

Comprehensive 2026 Russia economy review: latest data on growth, demographics, ESG performance, and investment risks. Essential insights for smarter asset allocation and reduced business/financial exposure.

www.worldeconomics.com

 

[Chin Rey]

According to the World Economics Research institution based in London, UK, Russia's economy became the 5th largest in the world when viewed with purchasing power parity on mind instead only using currency values alone, pushing back Germany on place 6.

No, you misread that a little bit. The difference between WER's estimates and others has nothing to do with PPP, other institutions also publish stats that include that factor in their calculations. The difference is that WER attempts to include the "informal economy" (corruption, black market, smuggling, trade in naturalia etc.).

Russia's official 2022 GDP in PPP terms was 3.993 trillion USD. That number is dubious in itself since there is no independent auditing and the government has a strong interest in inflating the number. WER then adds a whopping 1.5 trillion USD of informal economy - more than a quarter of the total sum. Amazing as it may seem to us from the west it's not actually unreasonable but it's hardly a sign of a strong and healthy economy.

One problem with the table is that it doesn't say anything about what exchange rate is used. The page is not dated and with the ruble in free fall even a few days may make a huge difference. A month ago the official exchange rate was about 90 rubles to a dollar, today it's more like 100. Since WER tries to include the informal economy they also should try to use the de facto exchange rate, not the official one. Usually you can't simply go to a bank in Russia and exchange your rubles for dollars. You have to do it on the black market and then you have to expect to pay 300 rubles or more for a dollar.

The ruble exchange rate is of course even more significant for the 2023 estimates than for the 2022 data. If the current trend continues (and there's no reason it shouldn't) we may well see an official exhange rate of 200 to 1 and a de facto one at more than 500 to 1 before this year is over.

WER's Data Quality Rating for Russia is C which means "use with caution". I suspect that is actually a bit too optimistic.

FInally, once we include PPP in the calculations, we also need to look at economic inequality and that is HUGE in Russa. Let's say there's a factory where the owner is good for a billion dollars. He has a hundred close associates who have 50,000 dollars each and a thousand workers with ten dollars each. That's almost a million dollars per person so why aren't the workers happy? I don't know, you tell me.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

No, you misread that a little bit. The difference between WER's estimates and others has nothing to do with PPP, other institutions also publish stats that include that factor in their calculations. The difference is that WER attempts to include the "informal economy" (corruption, black market, smuggling, trade in naturalia etc.).

Russia's official 2022 GDP in PPP terms was 3.993 trillion USD. That number is dubious in itself since there is no independent auditing and the government has a strong interest in inflating the number. WER then adds a whopping 1.5 trillion USD of informal economy - more than a quarter of the total sum. Amazing as it may seem to us from the west it's not actually unreasonable but it's hardly a sign of a strong and healthy economy.

One problem with the table is that it doesn't say anything about what exchange rate is used. The page is not dated and with the ruble in free fall even a few days may make a huge difference. A month ago the official exchange rate was about 90 rubles to a dollar, today it's more like 100. Since WER tries to include the informal economy they also should try to use the de facto exchange rate, not the official one. Usually you can't simply go to a bank in Russia and exchange your rubles for dollars. You have to do it on the black market and then you have to expect to pay 300 rubles or more for a dollar.

The ruble exchange rate is of course even more significant for the 2023 estimates than for the 2022 data. If the current trend continues (and there's no reason it shouldn't) we may well see an official exhange rate of 200 to 1 and a de facto one at more than 500 to 1 before this year is over.

WER's Data Quality Rating for Russia is C which means "use with caution". I suspect that is actually a bit too optimistic.

FInally, once we include PPP in the calculations, we also need to look at economic inequality and that is HUGE in Russa. Let's say there's a factory where the owner is good for a billion dollars. He has a hundred close associates who have 50,000 dollars each and a thousand workers with ten dollars each. That's almost a million dollars per person so why aren't the workers happy? I don't know, you tell me.

Same with the US, though it seems to be getting a bit better the last few years.

 

[Free]

About time homosexuality was used for world domination!

Putin's adviser says U.S. is using brainwashing to make gay Ukrainian super-soldiers - LGBTQ Nation

The Ukraine's Armed Forces will become "zombified and unified through gay sex, along with cult members ready to sacrifice themselves," he said.

www.lgbtqnation.com

An adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Ukraine’s military will become “unified through gay sex” like the Greek Spartans.

While the comment may seem bizarre, it’s just the latest example of Russian authorities using anti-LGBTQ+ nationalist sentiment to justify its unprovoked war against Ukraine.

“Military theorists and historians know which army in Greece was the strongest, remember? The Spartans! They were united by a homosexual brotherhood. They were all homos. These were the politics of their leadership. I think they are planning the same for Ukraine’s Armed Forces,” Sergei Markov, a former adviser to Putin, said while appearing on Russian TV, Newsweek reported.

 

[Noodles]

Homosexuality being awful and homosexuality making men strong Spartain soldiers, seemsike a weird mixed message.

I would think any commander of any army would have required buttsex if homosexuality turned dudes into super soldiers.

What about the gay women soldiers though, do they also become Spartans? Or do they become like, the Wonder Women soldiers?

 

[Free]

What about the gay women soldiers though, do they also become Spartans? Or do they become like, the Wonder Women soldiers?

They put us in charge.

 

[WolfEyes]

Homosexuality being awful and homosexuality making men strong Spartain soldiers, seemsike a weird mixed message.

I would think any commander of any army would have required buttsex if homosexuality turned dudes into super soldiers.

What about the gay women soldiers though, do they also become Spartans? Or do they become like, the Wonder Women soldiers?

I think that would make them the Amazons.

 

[Noodles]

I think that would make them the Amazons.

Thats the word I was trying to think of. I've been exhausted and had a headache all day, hard to come up with it.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

This doesn't sound good.

US Tells Citizens to Leave Belarus ‘Immediately’

The U.S. embassy in Belarus has told its citizens to leave the country “immediately,” citing an increasing number of border closures with neighbouring countries.

The Lithuanian government on August 18 closed two border crossings with Belarus with four remaining open.

The Polish, Lithuanian, and Latvian governments, however, have stated that further closures of border crossings with Belarus are possible.

An alert issued by the U.S. embassy in Belarus, said: “U.S. citizens in Belarus should depart immediately. Consider departing via the remaining border crossings with Lithuania and Latvia, or by plane.

The U.S embassy also advised against all travel to the country “due to Belarusian authorities’ continued facilitation of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, the potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus.”

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Surprise.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.com

 

[Cindy Claveau]

I was wondering when they'd get around to that.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

The plane fell out of a 7th floor window?