The Invasion of Venezuela

[Casey Pelous]

Who knows what will happen!

What I do know is that Venezuela doesn't have anything that is directly comparable to a huge Islamist group like ISIS. It is possible they will just roll over and welcome the US in much the same way Bush claimed Iraq would... With that said, there is plenty that can still go wrong. Trump is likely to overtly steal resources rather than helping the people of Venezuela and then even many of the people currently celebrating the capture of Maduro might turn on the occupation forces.

So what I'm saying in a nutshell is that Iraq and Ukraine were two very different situations that each went bad for the invaders for actually very different reasons. Venezuela is a third, very different situation that could go many ways from here.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I am NOT saying I think this will all go just fine.... just saying the situation is unpredictable.

It's hard to imagine how a US-backed puppet government with Grandpa Scamsalot at the helm could be more corrupt than Maduro, but, by golly, we'll give it our best shot.

 

[detrius]

Post from Adam Something

Maduro is now stuck in the Cycle.

youtube.com

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Just to clarify, I am NOT saying I think this will all go just fine.... just saying the situation is unpredictable.

You neglected to mention the other MAJOR factor in how all this could quickly go south for us -- our Commander in Chief is a blithering idiot with NO historical knowledge or even common sense. Under his tutelage, gambling casinos even went bankrupt!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Thread on X by a Mexican human rights lawyer (translation by DeepL)

Overthrowing a dictator sounds morally just. No one mourns a tyrant. But international law was not created to protect the good guys, but to restrain the powerful. That is why it prohibits the use of force almost without exception: not because it ignores injustice, but because it knows that if each country decides who to “liberate” with bullets, the world will return to the law of the strongest.

The problem is not Maduro. The problem is the precedent. When military force is used to change governments without clear rules, sovereignty ceases to be a limit and becomes a hindrance. Today it is ‘overthrowing a dictator’; tomorrow it will be ‘correcting an election’, ‘protecting interests’, ‘restoring order’. The law does not absolve dictatorships, but neither does it legitimise unilateral crusades.

The uncomfortable question is not whether a tyrant deserves to fall, but who decides when and how. Because history teaches us something brutal: removing a dictator is easy; building justice afterwards is not. And when legality is broken in the name of good, what follows is almost always not freedom, but chaos, violence and new victims. The law exists to remind us of that, even when it is uncomfortable.

Maduro is not the problem: he is the face of the problem. Removing him from power would merely open the door. Behind him is the machinery: Rodríguez, Cabello, the military command, the operators of repression and looting. If you only change the person at the top and leave the system intact, what follows is not democracy: it is rearrangement.

And there is something even more difficult: Chavismo did not just capture institutions, it captured daily life. The economy, the media, bureaucracy, employment, fear, favours, blackmail. A country cannot be ‘de-Chavised’ by decree or by electoral miracle. The real transition begins when that network is broken without setting the country on fire.

The challenge is enormous and also moral: to unite without revenge, but without impunity. Targeted justice for those most responsible, truth for the victims, guarantees for the rest to let go of the apparatus, and a plan for people to live again—not just survive. Because freedom does not come with a new president: it comes when the state ceases to be a threat.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Who knows what will happen!

What I do know is that Venezuela doesn't have anything that is directly comparable to a huge Islamist group like ISIS. It is possible they will just roll over and welcome the US in much the same way Bush claimed Iraq would... With that said, there is plenty that can still go wrong. Trump is likely to overtly steal resources rather than helping the people of Venezuela and then even many of the people currently celebrating the capture of Maduro might turn on the occupation forces.

So what I'm saying in a nutshell is that Iraq and Ukraine were two very different situations that each went bad for the invaders for actually very different reasons. Venezuela is a third, very different situation that could go many ways from here.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I am NOT saying I think this will all go just fine.... just saying the situation is unpredictable.

At the moment there's no US presence there for the Venezuelan government or people to welcome. All the previous government are still in place, as are the chiefs of the military, the Chavista militias, the security services, and so on. The only difference is that Delcy Rodríguez, the previous vice president, has now been sworn in as interim president.

The idea seems to be to announce that the US is now in charge and Marco Rubio gets on the phone to President Rodríguez, tells her what the Aperol Amin would like her to do, and hopes for the best.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Cindy Claveau]

Before I jumped in and posted this quote, I looked it up and found the original (?) source. I think it is incredibly pertinent to today and especially to this President:

George Santayana

In 1905 George Santayana published “The Life of Reason, or The Phases of Human Progress”. The twelfth chapter titled “Flux and Constancy In Human Nature” contained the following passage. Boldface added to excepts by QI:1

Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted; it misses progress by failing in consecutiveness and persistence. This is the condition of children and barbarians, in whom instinct has learned nothing from experience.

Projected to DT, I submit that he might be immune to this rule because he had no knowledge of history to begin with. I'm picturing a monkey at a typewriter.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

*stumbles out of the grave*

You should be worried. You should be deeply, sorely worried on many levels.
Trump just made invading smaller countries for their resources en vogue again. Colonialism 3.0 is here, and it decided to skip 2.0.

2.0 was the American invasion in Iraq.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Thorsten Benner (@tbenner.bsky.social)

It's wild that the PM of a NATO member feels compelled to put out a statement like this vis-à-vis the US government.

bsky.app

 

[Govi]

Where's his tin-pot?

 

[Noodles]

Trump says the US will be running things when they don't even have an embassy there, and seems to expect the oil companies to commit, without being consulted ,to billion dollar investment projects that will take at least a decade to show much return, in a hugely unstable political, military and legal environment and at a time of falling oil prices.

I have seen some analysis going around on Nliesky that oil companies don't even want it, or want the stuff that Venesuela nationalized back. Basically, it would cost more to repair and rebuild than it will get back in returns, plus it will tank the per barrel oil prices.

 

[Noodles]

Thread on X by a Mexican human rights lawyer (translation by DeepL)

Unrelated, but apparently Duolingo works because I can actually read and understand like, 90% of that.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

At the moment there's no US presence there for the Venezuelan government or people to welcome. All the previous government are still in place, as are the chiefs of the military, the Chavista militias, the security services, and so on. The only difference is that Delcy Rodríguez, the previous vice president, has now been sworn in as interim president.

The idea seems to be to announce that the US is now in charge and Marco Rubio gets on the phone to President Rodríguez, tells her what the Aperol Amin would like her to do, and hopes for the best.

What could possibly go wrong?

Oh, PLENTY can go wrong. That much is obvious. This morning I was thinking it was likely there would be a ground invasion right away. Now that is seeming less likely, so the current Venezuelan government might indeed just say "FUCK YOU" and hope the international community backs them. I was surprised Maduro was captured immediately and wrongly assumed an actual invasion was in progress.

I have seen some analysis going around on Nliesky that oil companies don't even want it, or want the stuff that Venesuela nationalized back. Basically, it would cost more to repair and rebuild than it will get back in returns...

Venezuela has something like 300 billion barrels of oil to dig up, the largest in the world. I'm sure you can repair just about anything and have it pay for itself in time.

...plus it will tank the per barrel oil prices.

This much is true, but I'm still sure they could profit from Venezuelan oil.

 

[Ellie]

I read that somewhere that rare materials (earths, metals??) and not the oil, were the US target, would appreciate confirmation or otherwise.

Another commentator I can't find again suggested the US problem isn't capturing their targets but what comes next. They don't have the ability, understanding or really the will to properly administer nations the US interferes with one way or another, leaving behind a ruined country, and a people who now hate the US.

 

[Free]

x ...

 

[Free]

The gloves are coming off.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I read that somewhere that rare materials (earths, metals??) and not the oil, were the US target, would appreciate confirmation or otherwise.

Another commentator I can't find again suggested the US problem isn't capturing their targets but what comes next. They don't have the ability, understanding or really the will to properly administer nations the US interferes with one way or another, leaving behind a ruined country, and a people who now hate the US.

Other than oil, Venezuela's main natural resources seem to be iron and bauxite.

Venezuela's natural resources | Environmental Sciences | Research Starters | EBSCO Research

<p>Venezuela is endowed with significant natural resources, making it a notable player in global commodities, particularly oil. Located in northern South America, the country boasts the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with approximately 298 billion barrels as of 2014. The oil industry...

www.ebsco.com

 

[Free]

By the way...


Look at those sophisticated, ultra-high tech Curtains of Silence. They sure do beat the Cone.

 

[Ellie]

Where's his tin-pot?

No need. Change his diaper mind.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

I read that somewhere that rare materials (earths, metals??) and not the oil, were the US target, would appreciate confirmation or otherwise.

Not sure anyone here can confirm or deny exactly what Trump is thinking, but why not both? Venezuela has vast natural resources that are mostly under developed.

Another commentator I can't find again suggested the US problem isn't capturing their targets but what comes next. They don't have the ability, understanding or really the will to properly administer nations the US interferes with one way or another, leaving behind a ruined country, and a people who now hate the US.

well yes.... The US military took Iraq quickly, but what came next was a long nightmare. I was saying earlier something like that could happen with Venezuela. But I also wanted to point out that so much of the trouble with Iraq had to do with ISIS coming in. I doubt Venezuela would have a direct analog to that, but plenty can still go wrong.

What I'm actually predicting is that Trump will chicken out of doing a full ground invasion and Venezuela will kind of go back to their "normal." Only difference is Maduro is removed in place of his former Vice President. ....and of course our diplomatic relations with Latin America got even worse.

 

[Ellie]

well yes...The US military took Iraq quickly, but what came next was a long nightmare. I was saying earlier something like that could happen with Venezuela. But I also wanted to point out that so much of the trouble with Iraq had to do with ISIS coming in.

Agreed, also, it was only possible for ISIS to gain power in Iraq due to the US failure to reconstruct the state following the U.S. invasion and withdrawal.