Hey, Non Scottish Brits who aren't cunts...

Lucifer

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Fancy moving to Scotland post COVID and voting for independence? Then you can be shot of the Tories forever, and get back into Europe.
 

Lucifer

Gonnae no dae that, jist gonnae no.
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You really are a miserable cunt aren't you?

Everyone knows exactly what's meant when I say Europe in this context.

I have a life, I do however wonder about you.
 

Innula Zenovka

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Fancy moving to Scotland post COVID and voting for independence? Then you can be shot of the Tories forever, and get back into Europe.
If I thought that was a realistic proposition, I'd sell up and be off to Scotland like a shot, but let's wait for the New Year to see how things work out on the Irish border and in Kent before we get too enthusiastic about introducing a land frontier for the EU, and thus the need for customs checks, between the A74M and the M6.
 

Lucifer

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If I thought that was a realistic proposition, I'd sell up and be off to Scotland like a shot, but let's wait for the New Year to see how things work out on the Irish border and in Kent before we get too enthusiastic about introducing a land frontier for the EU, and thus the need for customs checks, between the A74M and the M6.
 
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Dakota Tebaldi

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Hey there Luc!
 

Innula Zenovka

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I've been trying to think this through, and I just can't make work.

When Scotland and RoUK start to negotiate the separation, what set of assumptions do they use?

Are they trying to come up with an agreement that will work even if an independent Scotland then applies to join the EU?

If they are, there's no way of knowing if it will still be compatible by the time Scotland does actually join the EU, and nor is there any way of knowing if, at some point in the indeterminate future after Scotland joins the EU, a key part or parts of the Scotland-RoUK agreement, will conflict with some future EU directive, so there will have to be a clear statement of how to deal with any potential conflicts between the treaty and Scotland's potential EU membership.

That's going to be very difficult to sort out, I would think.

Meanwhile, of course, the agreement has to be one that works, from the outset and for an unknown period thereafter, and possibly permanently, for an independent Scotland outside both the UK and the EU, and for the remainder of the UK, too.

The only solution I can come up with involves Scotland and RoUK agreeing with the EU that both (re)join the EU simultaneously, at which point the separation between Scotland and RoUK becomes complete. That's a lovely idea, but it can hardly be guaranteed to work out.
 
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Khamon

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Scotland votes independence. EU agrees to provisionally admit Scotland on the date of independence understanding that there will still be quite a bit of work to do but not leaving them to starve like their neighbors to the south have done. The remainder of the UK continues to self destruct because it seems that nobody can stop the train.
 

Veritable Quandry

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Scotland votes independence. EU agrees to provisionally admit Scotland on the date of independence understanding that there will still be quite a bit of work to do but not leaving them to starve like their neighbors to the south have done. The remainder of the UK continues to self destruct because it seems that nobody can stop the train.
Catalan announces a bid to join as a break-away Republic the same day. EU freezes admission process.
 

Sid

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Spain disputes the fact that Catalonia can become independent. That makes it an internal Spanish affair. So the EU stays neutral.
If the UK disputes a Scottish independence, the EU will freeze any Scottish admission process as well.
If the rest of the UK is okay with Scotland becoming independent, there could be a totally different ballgame.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Spain disputes the fact that Catalonia can become independent. That makes it an internal Spanish affair. So the EU stays neutral.
If the UK disputes a Scottish independence, the EU will freeze any Scottish admission process as well.
If the rest of the UK is okay with Scotland becoming independent, there could be a totally different ballgame.
No, I'm sorry but I don't think it works even if the rest of the UK is OK with Scotland becoming independent.

Referendum on the question "Should Scotland remain part of the UK or leave?" is held. Scotland votes "Leave," and the governments in Edinburgh and London sit down to negotiate, in good faith, the terms of the divorce.

During those negotiations, Scotland remains part of the UK.

Can negotiations take place between the EU and the devolved government of Scotland while Scotland is part of the UK?

I don't know, but, assuming they can, how do they deal with the problem of a hard EU external border between Scotland and the remainder of the UK, which I can't see the rest of the UK would agree to, and I doubt many voters in Scotland would want either? What happens when the EU and the rest of the UK can't agree to something -- Scotland's still part of the UK at this point, remember?

The Irish border already presents a huge problem in negotiations between the UK and the EU, and I cannot see that negotiating second land border into existence is going to be any less difficult.
 

Sid

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As you know, the Irish border is so complicated because of the violent (still more or less recent) past on the Isle of Ireland.
I can't see that so troublesome in a case of an independent Scotland.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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As you know, the Irish border is so complicated because of the violent (still more or less recent) past on the Isle of Ireland.
I can't see that so troublesome in a case of an independent Scotland.
The history of the Irish border complicates matters, certainly, but it's not the reason it's a problem -- the problem is creating a customs border where none existed before, as we're about to see graphically demonstrated in Kent on January 1st next year, regardless of whether there's a deal or not.

At the moment, traffic can flow as easily between Scotland and England as it can between Wales and England.

Create a need for EU border inspections as Scottish farmers try to export Scottish beef into England or Welsh farmers try to export Lamb into Scotland, or supermarket chains try to move goods from English warehouses and factories to Scotland, and you create considerable extra costs and delays, which is why they're busy building a huge lorry park in Kent




That's not a problem because of any history between England and France, it's a problem because of the need for customs checks.

It's exactly the same problem, as I see it, as we had with the EU referendum.

At the time I said it was a nonsensical idea because we were being asked to choose between the status quo and something else, without being told what the "something else" was, and whenever people like me raised questions about the practicalities, people like Michael Gove and Boris Johnson dismissed our concerns as "Project Fear" and told us that we would enjoy all of the advantages of belonging to the EU without any of the disadvantages.

As we know only too well, that assessment of what leaving meant turned out to be somewhat over-optimistic, and one of the disadvantages of creating a border between the EU's single market and the UK is that you thus create the need for customs checks and controls, and lots of paperwork.

If an independent Scotland joins the EU, then it creates a similar border between Scotland and the remainder of the UK, where no such barrier exists at present. Similarly, it decouples Scotland's banking and financial services market (which accounts for a huge proportion of Scotland's GDP, up there with oil, whisky and tourism) from London and UK regulators and places it under EU regulation. That has to cause significant disruption to the industry on both sides of the border.

As I said in an earlier post, the only way I can see it working is if Scotland and the rest of the UK apply to (re)join the EU at the same time as Scotland gains independence from the UK.

Furthermore, at some point before the referendum, someone needs to consider what happens if Scotland's application to join the EU is unsuccessful -- Spain vetoes it because they don't want to give the Catalans ideas, or Hungary and Poland veto it because they think the Scots are too liberal, or Marine le Pen becomes President of France and vetoes it because she's a fascist jerk.

Probably wouldn't happen, but there has to be a contingency plan -- does Scotland still want to be independent under those conditions, and, if not, where does that leave the referendum result?

The more I think about it, the more improbable it all seems.
 

Beebo Brink

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I'm curious now, as long as we're looking at alternate scenarios: Do you think Brexit have gone differently if both Ireland and Scotland were independent prior to the referendum? Or would Farage & Co have still managed to stoke the British public into a purely emotional response, border difficulties be damned?
 
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Innula Zenovka

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I'm curious now, as long as we're looking at alternate scenarios: Do you think Brexit have gone differently if both Ireland and Scotland were independent prior to the referendum? Or would Farage & Co have still managed to stoke the British public into a purely emotional response, border difficulties be damned?
Scotland and NI both voted Remain, so, if anything, that suggests the Leave majority would have been larger.

However, the question presupposes that a lot of the preceding history happened differently -- how and when did Scotland and NI become independent, and what were the consequences? -- so there's no way of knowing.
 

Khamon

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Referendum on the question "Should Scotland remain part of the UK or leave?" is held. Scotland votes "Leave," and the governments in Edinburgh and London sit down to negotiate, in good faith, the terms of the divorce.

Can negotiations take place between the EU and the devolved government of Scotland while Scotland is part of the UK?
Of course they can. Scotland already has a Parliamentary body that can negotiate with both parties after the referendum passes. Or perhaps Westminster will declare civil war and burn a path to the sea?

I don't know, but, assuming they can, how do they deal with the problem of a hard EU external border between Scotland and the remainder of the UK, which I can't see the rest of the UK would agree to, and I doubt many voters in Scotland would want either? What happens when the EU and the rest of the UK can't agree to something -- Scotland's still part of the UK at this point, remember?
Scotland reminds the UK that Scotland have voted to leave and initiates a hard Scexit, with concern for working with the EU to negotiate fishing and trade agreements pending membership, and with little to no regard for how moving the border from sea to land affects the remainder of the UK.
 

Innula Zenovka

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Of course they can. Scotland already has a Parliamentary body that can negotiate with both parties after the referendum passes. Or perhaps Westminster will declare civil war and burn a path to the sea?
How about the EU? I ask because I don't know -- is the EU legally capable of negotiating with the Scottish government under those circumstances, assuming it wants to, that is? Or can it negotiate only with sovereign states?

Scotland reminds the UK that Scotland have voted to leave and initiates a hard Scexit, with concern for working with the EU to negotiate fishing and trade agreements pending membership, and with little to no regard for how moving the border from sea to land affects the remainder of the UK.
But that means negotiating a Scexit that accommodates an indefinite period with Scotland as a member of neither the UK nor the EU, and you've still got the problem of negotiating something that's compatible with EU law.

I'm assuming that both sides are negotiating in good faith here.

They both of them genuinely want to make the break as painless as possible for both countries, and to come up with something that works for both of them, but everything is going to be contingent on negotiations with the EU, which either haven't yet happened, or are happening simultaneously.

If they're happening simultaneously, then is it a tripartite negotiation between Scotland, RoUK,, and the EU, or three sets of negotiations, Scotland v EU, Scotland v RoUK, RoUK v EU, or a mixture of both?

It's a nightmare to try to work out.

ETA: I've been thinking about it, and a great deal of Scexit will be pre-determined by the terms of the UK's existing relationship with the EU. That is, assuming Scotland intends to join the EU, it's not up to anyone in London or Edinburgh to decide how (for example) livestock transfers across the border should be handled, or the regime regulating cross-border banking and financial services -- those will be whatever is in force at at the time.

ETA II -- I'm not at all hostile to the idea of an independent Scotland that's part of the EU, and if it ever looks like working then I'll certainly sell up her and relocate to Scotland if I'm still physically able. But I just don't see it ever happening, any more than I ever expected Brexit to mean £350 million a week for the NHS, so I wonder what the referendum is actually going to be about.
 
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