Hey, Non Scottish Brits who aren't cunts...

[Arkady Arkright]

The more I think about it, the more improbable it all seems.

You seemed to consider the fact that "we're fucked" improbable not so long ago, but look where we are now...

 

[Innula Zenovka]

You seemed to consider the fact that "we're fucked" improbable not so long ago, but look where we are now...

We'll see. The markets seem reasonably confident there will be a deal of some sort, but even if there isn't, both sides will have to cobble something together pretty quickly, since the alternative will be so unpleasant for everyone (more so for us than for the EU, but it's going to be no fun for much of the EU, or specific sectors, anyway) that both sides will need a deal, and Johnson will have to take what he's offered.

Maybe we have different standards -- I spent a lot of time in Russia just before, and in the years immediately following, the collapse of the USSR. What I saw there is my definition of "fucked" in this context, and I don't think we're anywhere near things getting that bad.

But I was wrong about Brexit and Trump, and I certainly didn't expect the election result this time last year, so I could well be wrong again now. Not long before we find out, anyway.

 

[Sid]

How about the EU? I ask because I don't know -- is the EU legally capable of negotiating with the Scottish government under those circumstances, assuming it wants to, that is? Or can it negotiate only with sovereign states?

I amuse that Scotland would officially have to be an independent state before it can become a member.
But (informal) discussions and information sessions are always possible I guess, starting the moment it is clear that Scotland would become a nation of its own.
And when those talks are successful papers could be signed at Scotland's first day of interdependence.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I amuse that Scotland would officially have to be an independent state before it can become a member.
But (informal) discussions and information sessions are always possible I guess, starting the moment it is clear that Scotland would become a nation of its own.
And when those talks are successful papers could be signed at Scotland's first day of interdependence.

In that case, as I suggested to Khamon, we've got three sets of inter-linked negotiations to get right -- Edinburgh and EU on terms of Scotland joining, Westminster and EU on cross-border arrangements after Scotland joins, and Westminster and Edinburgh on everything else.

And the result has to be something they can all commit to before independence can happen.

 

[Lucifer]

There have already been discreet negotiations between Scotland and various EU governments to seek future backing, there have been many signs from the EU that Scotland would be welcomed.

If it pans out, when we reach the negotiating trable with the rUK we will have the EU (or a sizeable part of it, at our back. We've seen how Westminster fairs against the EU in negotiationsd...

 

[Lucifer]

I amuse that Scotland would officially have to be an independent state before it can become a member.
But (informal) discussions and information sessions are always possible I guess, starting the moment it is clear that Scotland would become a nation of its own.
And when those talks are successful papers could be signed at Scotland's first day of interdependence.

This, in spades. Though it's already in motion to an extent.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

There have already been discreet negotiations between Scotland and various EU governments to seek future backing, there have been many signs from the EU that Scotland would be welcomed.

If it pans out, when we reach the negotiating trable with the rUK we will have the EU (or a sizeable part of it, at our back. We've seen how Westminster fairs against the EU in negotiationsd...

I'm sure Scotland would be welcomed by the EU.

What I'm less sure about is whether creating the sort of barriers, physical and regulatory, between Scotland and the rest of the UK that will exist after January 1st between NI and the Republic, and between the UK and France, will be welcomed by people or businesses on either side of the border.

Nor am I sure, because I don't know, whether the terms of Scotland's EU membership would be compatible with any particular arrangement that Scotland might otherwise wish to retain with the rest of the UK.

Maybe I'm mistaken and it'll all be as easy as Gove, Johnson, Cummings and the rest assured us the Brexit negotiations would be.

But we'll see.

 

[Sid]

At least land borders aren't as complicated and time consuming as sea borders.
But who knows, the UK and the EU are still talking, so there still might roll out a good trade agreement.
Somehow, miraculously. With unicorns on both sides. And a fist full of cherries.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

At least land borders aren't as complicated and time consuming as sea borders.

Creating a land border where none has existed for 300 years, though, will not be without its complications, particularly when it's an external border of the EU.