Coronavirus Updates

[Sovereignty]

Dr. Roger Seuhult of MedCram fame (but is a practicing ICU, pulmonology MD in California) hits hard on using some form of thermal hydrotherapy to reduce Covid19 hospital admissions today's video. He's not talking only about saunas.

Searching for Immunity Boosters & Possible Lessons From Spanish Flu

Turns out, variants of this idea were used to treat syphilis into the 1950's. Interesting stuff. For instance, give people malaria to cause a fever which cured the syphilis (neurosyphilis) and then cure the malaria. This approach originated before we had penicillin, [k]new about viral replication, etc., but it is no more primitive than locking people in their houses aka social distancing.

Seuhult goes into a lot of medical history. Have to wade through that. Worth it. In short, reduce the incidence of pneumonia and you have fewer pneumonia patients. Talks about how that was a better way to go with the 1918 flu.

However, he does not go into details of how it might be implemented other than to mention "contrast showers, etc." in some text splashed on the screen early on.

I'd really like to see younger people using some approach like this, probably the best benefit there. I'd expect diminishing returns as immune systems degrade. 40% of admissions are under age 60 IIRC. There is an opportunity here.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

Sometimes, primitive is best, just saying.

 

[danielravennest]

Sometimes, primitive is best, just saying.

A side effect of "primitive" social distancing has been a noticeable decrease in the flu and other contagious diseases. It doesn't just slow the coronavirus.

 

[Sovereignty]

But I thought that one of the issues in Covid-19 was overreaction of the immune system? It doesn't seem to be so much strength as balance which is needed. And how their immune systems react or over react may also be a result of how much viral load they have contacted, which is another reason masks are A Good Idea. They minimize the amount of viral load you can ingest, if used correctly with hand washing etc. Whereas doctors and nurses without good protection are likely to contact much higher viral loads.

And it seems possible that children are less at risk because they have fewer of the ACE2 receptors in their bodies than older people, not their immune systems - and those on ACE inhibitors have most of all. Although a letter came out from the European Medicines Agency saying that they don't advise people to change their medication and that there is some evidence that ACE inhibitors might help - although they don't give any evidence to back up that statement, and you don't know how much of what they are saying is to avoid panic among those people who take the things and might be tempted to give them up if the advice went the other way. Those with kidney problems and heart problems are probably at more risk if they stop taking them than they will be from the virus, if they are properly self-isolating.

My doctor advised me on changing, but said my ex should not. I've read the patient information leaflet on Amlodipine and terrified myself, though.

The cytokine storm issues come into play after you have pneumonia. Seuhult wants people to not get pneumonia in the first place. Our medical system is [more] geared to curing pneumonia, not preventing it. It didn't use to be that way. [Yes, we do have pneumonia vaccines now which help prevent, but that's only for high risk groups.]

He gives an example of how hydrotherapy worked fairly well during the 1918 pandemic. Sanitariums using hydrotherapy were able to reduce death rates to 1.6% versus 6.4% in Army hospitals. (That is a death rate for admitted patients. There were additional flu patients not admitted to either army hospitals or sanitariums which implies lower case fatality rates as opposed to admission fatality rates.)

I think the number of ACE II receptors is important, too. I probably oversimplified in summariizng the video. Still, I don't want to get bogged down on that issue. The really important population to think about is people between 60 and 20 which is producing 40% of hospital admissions. Keep them from getting pneumonia, reduce hospital admissions, and the triage problem would be greatly reduced, hospital staff would not be so overworked, etc.

Seuhult has a separate video on the hypertension drug issue and says it is not really clear what to expect. There could be competing harmful and beneficial effects. He seems to favor continuing the hypertension drugs, but he phrases his sentences carefully. Tried to find it to give a link, but he has lots of videos. [Rereading that reply, I probably need to rewatch his video, but I think he's always in favor of "consult your physician".]

ETA: clarification on preventing pneumonia with vaccines, need to rewatch that video

 

[Pamela]

Rachel M. Interviewed the guy that does this website. I was shocked that Texas looks like it has enough beds overall. I figured we would be one of the worst like we are everything else since the only thing done at state level is close schools. Fortunately most large cities and counties have locked down.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

 

[Pamela]

Cannot freaking believe this. It is a joke in my family that I believe a hot bath cues about anything.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Old news: Russia sending support to Italy.
Hot news: Russia offering medical supplies to America and Trump accepts it.

Russian plane with coronavirus medical gear lands in U.S. after Trump-Putin call

Russia sent the United States medical equipment on Wednesday to help fight the coronavirus pandemic, a public relations coup for Russian President Vladimir Putin after he discussed the crisis with U.S. President Donald Trump.

www.reuters.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

New York's prisoners are getting offered high payment by prison standards (6$ per hour) and PPE if they volunteer to digg up mass graves on Hart Island.

Rikers Island Prisoners Are Being Offered PPE and $6 an Hour to Dig Mass Graves

New York City owns and operates a public cemetery on Hart Island, which has been tended by prison labor. Now prisoners are being asked to dig mass graves.

theintercept.com

 

[Randy Smadga]

A Minnesota trooper pulled over a doctor for speeding. Then he gave her his N95 medical masks

 

[Sovereignty]

Cannot freaking believe this. It is a joke in my family that I believe a hot bath cues about anything.

Not hot baths, per se. Seuhult is most interested in heat followed by cold. He has been vague so far on how this would be implemented, but does advise some amount of doctor supervision. I hope he goes into implementation more today, not just the science of it and history of medicine. Of course, implementation is the hard part, isn't it?

I try to summarize his videos since he is weak in that part of his presentations. He assumes people will watch his videos all the way through. They really should do that, but I think it is nice to have some summary.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Let's just pretend you are a nurse in an American hospital working with COVID19 patients and get no PPE. So you are making your own face mask and get to work, and guess what? The management tells you to take if off - so you quit!

 

[Salome]

I almost don’t want to,post this. It’s too heartbreaking.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

Florida is finally shutting down for a month [unless its some sort of sick joke].

 

[Salome]

This is a good video to share with anyone you might know that is having a hard time understanding the scope of the situation.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Elon Musk found some spare ventilators in a warehouse he wants to gift to the world for free - take a look upon the thread at how many politicians are begging there for that stuff.

 

[Sovereignty]

Rachel M. Interviewed the guy that does this website. I was shocked that Texas looks like it has enough beds overall. I figured we would be one of the worst like we are everything else since the only thing done at state level is close schools. Fortunately most large cities and counties have locked down.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

I think this website is quite helpful, like giving an idea of when infections might peak in different states. Thanks! Two comments/questions:

1) Does anyone know what confidence intervals they are using? I couldn't find that in their FAQs.

2) The modelers chose to err in an optimistic direction at least in the case of Texas, so it seems. From the web site:

"The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. " (emphasis added)

Houston's Mayor Sylvester Turner is busy dealing with Governor Abbot's religious zeal.

Mayor Turner on governor allowing some church services: 'If the building's on fire, don't go into the building'
Harris and other Texas counties had banned religious gatherings to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, but Gov. Abbott included churches on his exempt list.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I think this website is quite helpful, like giving an idea of when infections might peak in different states. Thanks! Two comments/questions:

1) Does anyone know what confidence intervals they are using? I couldn't find that in their FAQs.

2) The modelers chose to err in an optimistic direction at least in the case of Texas, so it seems. From the web site:

"The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. " (emphasis added)

Houston's Mayor Sylvester Turner is busy dealing with Governor Abbot's religious zeal.

Mayor Turner on governor allowing some church services: 'If the building's on fire, don't go into the building'
Harris and other Texas counties had banned religious gatherings to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, but Gov. Abbott included churches on his exempt list.

I knew our shut down was like shutting the barn door after the barn's burned down. Because gods forbid we actually save lives over saving the economy - our Gov is an idiot. Thank Cthulu for our mayors.

 

[Pamela]

I think this website is quite helpful, like giving an idea of when infections might peak in different states. Thanks! Two comments/questions:

1) Does anyone know what confidence intervals they are using? I couldn't find that in their FAQs.

2) The modelers chose to err in an optimistic direction at least in the case of Texas, so it seems. From the web site:

"The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing until at least the end of May 2020. We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. " (emphasis added)

Houston's Mayor Sylvester Turner is busy dealing with Governor Abbot's religious zeal.

Mayor Turner on governor allowing some church services: 'If the building's on fire, don't go into the building'
Harris and other Texas counties had banned religious gatherings to help stop the spread of the coronavirus, but Gov. Abbott included churches on his exempt list.

oh well, back to feeling like throwing up all the time.

 

[Pamela]

Not hot baths, per se. Seuhult is most interested in heat followed by cold. He has been vague so far on how this would be implemented, but does advise some amount of doctor supervision. I hope he goes into implementation more today, not just the science of it and history of medicine. Of course, implementation is the hard part, isn't it?

I try to summarize his videos since he is weak in that part of his presentations. He assumes people will watch his videos all the way through. They really should do that, but I think it is nice to have some summary.

Right, more than a hot bath, and I knew about the malaria cure for syphillus from a series about an early last century hospital, the name of which escapes me. Still, heat of any kind can be an amazing therapy for many things.

 

[Lexxi]