Coronavirus Updates

[Kara Spengler]

I would have the video on a loop if one of the people he is next to started majorly coughing in the middle of a conference. Just to see his reaction. There was already one where a front row reporter did it before he came in.

That is another difference in the Cuomo briefings. Everyone, both on camera and in the press pool, is as spread out as possible. Usually in a large area too. The UK ones I saw did not even have a press pool in the dame room. Every daily briefing I have seen from anyone whose name was not donnie modeled social distancing as much as possible.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I would have the video on a loop if one of the people he is next to started majorly coughing in the middle of a conference. Just to see his reaction. There was already one where a front row reporter did it before he came in.

That is another difference in the Cuomo briefings. Everyone, both on camera and in the press pool, is as spread out as possible. Usually in a large area too. The UK ones I saw did not even have a press pool in the dame room. Every daily briefing I have seen from anyone whose name was not donnie modeled social distancing as much as possible.

Yup, our mayor did one this morning - his sign lang translator was in the shot, about 6 feet away, and they were outside, so as to minimize things and he said there were like 20 people there, but they were all spaced out, so....

 

[Kara Spengler]

Yup, our mayor did one this morning - his sign lang translator was in the shot, about 6 feet away, and they were outside, so as to minimize things and he said there were like 20 people there, but they were all spaced out, so....

Yup, the DC mayor does the same. Outside, her, a terp, and a few others speaking that day.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

Yup, the DC mayor does the same. Outside, her, a terp, and a few others speaking that day.

Fun line from today's was 'Even the president ...'

 

[Maggy Hazelnut]

Fascinating and perhaps important video from MedCram today. Can Hot/Cold Therapy Boost Immunity?

If you want to try using saunas/hot baths to activate your immune system (simulate a fever), be careful. Hot temperatures can have bad effects on your circulatory system. For instance, if your heart cannot maintain your blood pressure as blood vessels near your skin dilate, you could lose consciousness. There could be other problems, too. As Dr. Seuhult says, consult your physician.

Two countries have a culture of saunas/hot baths, Japan and Finland. Neither is doing badlly with Covid19 so far.

This is all very interesting since it ties together a lot of features of the disease. Covid19 gets an upper hand by suppressing the innate immune system. Children have robust innate immune systems, so they do not get severe disease from it. The disease progresses fairly slowly, in contrast to the flu which comes on quite suddenly. In most people first Covid19 has to suppress the innate immune system. After that it can cause havoc.

The hopeful part is that both increasing and decreasing core body temperatures help activate the innate immune system. Seuhult goes through a number of papers on research done on the effects of Finnish style saunas and related phenomena. It seems like temporarily vaccinating the innate immune system which is what the BCG vaccine (for tuberculosis) also seems to do. There's a previous MedCram video discussing the BCG vaccine.

ETA: See Shortages, Immunity, & Can a TB Vaccine (BCG) Help Prevent COVID-19?
This video also gives background info on the innate and specific immune systems. Vaccines bolster the specific immune system. The innate immune system is a kind of all purpose immunity.

That reminds me of long ago when I was a young woman in Montana I met these 5 Finnish men in a bar. They said they wanted to show me their sauna & this was back when I was invincible & immortal so I said "Let's go!". Off we went with a couple bottles of booze to show me their sauna. Several hours & several empty booze bottles later we'd had a great time in their "genuine Finnish sauna" topped off by a roll in the snow outside. I have no idea if it was good for my immune system but I had a helluva lotta fun!

 

[Free]

They said they wanted to show me their sauna

Is that how Finnish men pick up women? In Montana?

 

[Maggy Hazelnut]

Is that how Finnish men pick up women? In Montana?

It worked on me at the time! haha I have no idea how they do it now since I don't live there anymore.

 

[bubblesort]

My projections from last week are still generally on track, which means Pennsylvania will probably have more coronavirus patients than beds on Saturday. Not every case requires hospitalization, but testing is spotty, and many beds are taken by people without coronavirus, so I'll assume those factors factor each other out, just because I don't have good data on those factors. I do know we have a lot less ventilators then beds, and that's the metric that really matters, but I don't know how bad that situation is, mathematically.

I forecast that by this time next week, our hospitals will probably be overflowing like NYC.

Stay safe out there. Wear a mask, even if it's not medical grade. Even thin cotton will reduce viral load. Wear a scarf over your face if you have nothing else. Think of it as a +1 in a D20 tabletop RPG. That extra pip is only a 5% advantage, but you never know when that extra pip may save your life.

 

[Essence Lumin]

This interactive graph shows the quantity of icu and other beds, and ventilators needed and available for the US and for all 50 states over time.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Sample screenshot:

 

[Salome]

 

[Essence Lumin]

U.S. government has 1.5 million expired N95 masks sitting in an Indiana warehouse

 

[Caete]

Gov. Cuomo on Ventilators in NYC: They Are In Stockpile, We Don't Need Them Until The "Apex"

 

[Free]

CBS News Journalist Maria Mercader Dies from Coronavirus at Age 54

Maria Mercader had been on medical leave for an unrelated matter since late February, according to CBS News

people.com

 

[bubblesort]

This interactive graph shows the quantity of icu and other beds, and ventilators needed and available for the US and for all 50 states over time.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I love that site, but given the stories I'm hearing from friends, their methods are a little bit off, because I think they are not taking into account how long it takes to get a test result back. This is how I do it:

On March 25 (last Wed), we had 1,127 cases in PA. That is the number of people who tested positive. In order to test positive, you need to show symptoms, which takes a week. According to friends on FB who have taken the test, and probably have Coronavirus right now, it takes roughly a week to get a test result back from a drive through testing site. Some say longer, some say shorter. I think you get results faster in Pittsburgh and Philly, for example. I'm just going to use a rough estimate of a week for results. That's on top of the week it takes to show symptoms and get approval to be tested.

Keep in mind, I'm only interested in undiagnosed cases that are out there spreading Coronavirus. So I go back two weeks, and subtract the 15 cases we had on March 11, because those cases have already spread it and are factored into the current numbers. That leaves us with 1112 cases.

I kinda eyeballed the doubling rate to be 2.5 days. So we are going back two weeks, rather than one week, as the healthdata.org site seems to do, and doubling 1112 cases 5.6 times to get to the number of undiagnosed cases last Wed.

That gives me 56,935 cases that will be diagnosed by April 8 (next Wed).

My chart from this projection shows that we will have 4,448 cases yesterday. We actually had 4,087 cases. So I am off by 361 cases, but all things considered, I'm definitely in the ballpark.

This forecast predicts 18k corona cases on Saturday. On Saturday, according to the numbers from the site you posted, we are projected to have 16k hospital beds. So I'm guessing sommetime this coming weekend we will cross the line where we have more Coronavirus cases than beds.

I second guessed this method quite a bit when I first ran the numbers, as any good economist does when they forecast (my degree is in economics). It's almost a week later, and the numbers seem to be keeping up with the forecast relatively well, so my confidence in it is much higher now, unfortunately.

Source on COVID19 numbers in Pennsylvania.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

It has finally happened: according to Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker the USA have by now 163479 confirmed infections, while China has 101739 infections. This means that the USA are the leading country by now, when put in relation to the population size even more so.

 

[Caliandris]

There could be indirect benefits if enough people are able to strengthen their immune systems. That would decrease the burden on hospitals and lessens the demand for therapeutic drugs. We can have multiple ways of dealing with the disease using whatever is best for each individual.

Seuhult is very big on the idea of helping people's immune systems by whatever means works and believes this part of the problem has not been getting enough attention. It can reduce the burden on hospitals.

But I thought that one of the issues in Covid-19 was overreaction of the immune system? It doesn't seem to be so much strength as balance which is needed. And how their immune systems react or over react may also be a result of how much viral load they have contacted, which is another reason masks are A Good Idea. They minimize the amount of viral load you can ingest, if used correctly with hand washing etc. Whereas doctors and nurses without good protection are likely to contact much higher viral loads.

And it seems possible that children are less at risk because they have fewer of the ACE2 receptors in their bodies than older people, not their immune systems - and those on ACE inhibitors have most of all. Although a letter came out from the European Medicines Agency saying that they don't advise people to change their medication and that there is some evidence that ACE inhibitors might help - although they don't give any evidence to back up that statement, and you don't know how much of what they are saying is to avoid panic among those people who take the things and might be tempted to give them up if the advice went the other way. Those with kidney problems and heart problems are probably at more risk if they stop taking them than they will be from the virus, if they are properly self-isolating.

My doctor advised me on changing, but said my ex should not. I've read the patient information leaflet on Amlodipine and terrified myself, though.

 

[Kara Spengler]

That reminds me of long ago when I was a young woman in Montana I met these 5 Finnish men in a bar. They said they wanted to show me their sauna & this was back when I was invincible & immortal so I said "Let's go!". Off we went with a couple bottles of booze to show me their sauna. Several hours & several empty booze bottles later we'd had a great time in their "genuine Finnish sauna" topped off by a roll in the snow outside. I have no idea if it was good for my immune system but I had a helluva lotta fun!

My dad likes to do that. He is not Finnish but married one. In their old house there was an attached sauna with a door out the back so in winters he would dive into the snow after.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Is that how Finnish men pick up women? In Montana?

No, the traditional way is to do it naked and 'family style' and even if not related trust me, sex is the last thing on your mind.

 

[Kara Spengler]

It has finally happened: according to Microsoft Bing COVID-19 Tracker the USA have by now 163479 confirmed infections, while China has 101739 infections. This means that the USA are the leading country by now, when put in relation to the population size even more so.

I wonder if places are replacing their 'if you have traveled to China' signs with 'if you have traveled to the united states'.

 

[Caete]