Coronavirus Updates

[Caliandris]

The most recent episode of this youtube video heavily criticises UK govt for not putting in controls for public gatherings, and the Dutch for misinformation about the ability for asymptomatic people being able to pass on infection and the US media for promoting misinformation about the length of time viruses can live on surfaces.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

So at the moment the Ohio State University is on spring break. Meaning students are traveling. I just received an email from the president notifying campus that all in person instruction except labs and performance classes will be held online at least until the end of March. Fortunately my classes will mostly work as virtual meetings (that's part of why I was interested in SL in the first place).

 

[Stora]

I know we are always knocking the banks but let's give credit where credit is due ;-)


RBS to allow customers to defer mortgage payments

Taxpayer-owned bank RBS will allow people affected by the coronavirus outbreak to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.
The bank, which runs the RBS, NatWest, and Ulster Bank brands, also said savers could close fixed-term savings accounts early with no charge.
This is designed to allow people to access cash if they need it as the impact of the virus is felt.

Coronavirus: Banks let people defer mortgage bill

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Italy suspended mortgage payments due to Corona:

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

 

[Beebo Brink]

More from Italy. If this is our future, we're in for a nightmare.


NIV = non-invasive ventilation

Everyone with any medical background (orthopedists, pathologists) are being pulled into service as the front-line healthcare workers are overwhelmed.

 

[Kalel]

as of late Monday, several states declared emergencies. New york, ohio, florida, Rhode island...

NewYork is closing schools and universities on a case by case basis.

They are using prison labor to make hand sanitizers 100,000 gallons a week to keep up with the demand and prevent price gouging.

Judge is barring exposed people from entering courthouse...

Major concern that long term closure can wreak havoc on the largest school system in the US. Low income people rely on schools to provide Meals and medicare

Thousands of Students in New York Face Shuttered Schools

 

[Isabeau]

Friends and family are rethinking their travel plans this summer to Europe (work/family visit). 1st death here but hospital preps, city, etc are well organized. Still, I think everyone will be affected even if not directly. Will be a crazy year I think.

 

[Pamela]

From W Post.

One of the few mercies of the spreading coronavirus is that it leaves young children virtually untouched — a mystery virologists say may hold vital clues as to how the virus works.
In China, only 2.4 percent of reported cases were children and only 0.2 percent of reported cases were children who got critically ill, according to the World Health Organization. China has reported no case of a young child dying of the disease covid-19.
Meanwhile, the new coronavirus has proved especially deadly on the other end of the age spectrum. The fatality rate in China for those over 80 is an estimated 21.9 percent, per the WHO. For ages 10 to 39, however, the fatality rate is roughly 0.2 percent, according to a separate study drawing on patient records of 44,672 confirmed cases. And fatalities and severe symptoms are almost nonexistent at even younger ages.

 

[Anya Ristow]

Believe It or Not, There Was Actually Good COVID-19 News Today

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

So where was the good news today? The unlikeliest place of all: Wuhan, China.

Cringe.

 

[Eunoli]

Posted this as part of another post - but realize these numbers probably belong here. The numbers are based on the WHO estimate of a 5 day doubling. If we actually start to do things to slow the spread, it might not be this dire - except Trump.

Coronavirus - Our World in Data

Active Cases in the US (following current estimates at doubling every 5 days):
Today: 761
3/15: 1522
3/20: 3,044
3/25: 6,088
3/30: 12,176
4/4: 24,352
4/9: 48,704
4/14: 97,408
4/19: 194,816
4/25: 389,632
4/29: 779,264
5/4: 1,558,528
5/9: 3,117,056
5/14: 6,234,112
5/19: 12,428,224
5/24: 24,936,448
5/29: ‭49,872,896‬
6/3: ‭99,745,792‬

 

[Beebo Brink]

So let's say we hit 1 million infected people by mid-June:

15-20% critical cases : 150,000-200,000 people in need of hospitalization
2-3% fatalities : 20-30,000 dead

Even if it's not the end of the world, it's still a sobering scenario.

 

[Beebo Brink]

From confidence to quarantine: how coronavirus swept Italy

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I was talking to a work colleague today in Discord. She's Italian, and lives in Italy.

One of her relatives died last week (unrelated to Covid-19) and, because of the quarantine and travel restrictions, they can't organise what she and the family would regard as a proper church funeral with all the extended family and friends.

She was, understandably, very upset about it.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Prophetic talk by Bill Gates in 2015: The next outbreak? We're not ready!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The most recent episode of this youtube video heavily criticises UK govt for not putting in controls for public gatherings, and the Dutch for misinformation about the ability for asymptomatic people being able to pass on infection and the US media for promoting misinformation about the length of time viruses can live on surfaces.

I checked out the website of Peak Prosperity, who put out the video, and it seems to be a US site devoted to offering investment advice.

Is there any particular reason to think this chap's advice on how to manage epidemics and pandemics is going to be significantly better than the advice being offered to the British or Dutch governments by their own professional medical advisors and epidemiologists? I wonder what his medical qualifications are like.

 

[danielravennest]

I live in Fulton County, GA, population 1.05 million because we include the city of Atlanta. One of the school teachers here was diagnosed with the virus, and they are closing all the county schools tomorrow. I assume it is for a training and disinfecting day, since one teacher could not have had contact with everyone in the school system. But it is pretty much a nightmare situation for parents.

 

[Beebo Brink]

Using Eunoli's post as a spring board, I've been playing with spreadsheets to fully grasp the notion of exponential growth, and to judge the strain on health care resources due to the critically ill. I've run a scenario for my own city, the city where I work, as well a few nearby metro areas. This is not what will happen, but it's a kind of worst-case unchecked epidemic scenario as a checkpoint.

Late April to early May looks to be when numbers will start popping out of control.

Assumptions: A doubling of coronavirus infections every 5 days,
U.S. Population: 327 million population, with ~80% infected = 271 million (approx)
Critical: 15% of the infected needing hospitalization
Starting point: As of today, 800 confirmed cases.

Progression:

Date	Infected	Critical	Dead
3/10/2020​	800​	120​	16​
3/15/2020​	1,600​	240​	32​
3/20/2020​	3,200​	480​	64​
3/25/2020​	6,400​	960​	128​
3/30/2020​	12,800​	1,920​	256​
4/4/2020​	25,600​	3,840​	512​
4/9/2020​	51,200​	7,680​	1,024​
4/14/2020​	102,400​	15,360​	2,048​
4/19/2020​	204,800​	30,720​	4,096​
4/24/2020​	409,600​	61,440​	8,192​
4/29/2020​	819,200​	122,880​	16,384​
5/4/2020​	1,638,400​	245,760​	32,768​
5/9/2020​	3,276,800​	491,520​	65,536​
5/14/2020​	6,553,600​	983,040​	131,072​
5/19/2020​	13,107,200​	1,966,080​	262,144​
5/24/2020​	26,214,400​	3,932,160​	524,288​
5/29/2020​	52,428,800​	7,864,320​	1,048,576​
6/3/2020​	104,857,600​	15,728,640​	2,097,152​
6/8/2020​	209,715,200​	31,457,280​	4,194,304​

 

[Eunoli]

That's really helpful for visualizing, but I think your death rate is a little low. We're at 28 dead today.

 

[Beebo Brink]

That's really helpful for visualizing, but I think your death rate is a little low. We're at 28 dead today.

Yes, I'm using a 2% fatality rate as a conservative estimate. Right now the overall numbers are so low -- and the nursing home that was hit is going skew fatalities upward -- but we'll see how that rate compares over a few weeks.