Brexit.

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Many observer of the political processes in UK underline, that the votes for Brexit were mainly votes out of frustration (at least to a huge part) , frustration that the people felt and feel neglected, that the political elite dont look after them...

"Many observers of" is the typical modern bullshit style of pseudo journalism, sorry. It pretends a graveness, which is in reality not there, and labels opinions as facts. Which observers, names, how many and when? Such hollow phrases should really be avoided.

Yes, people voted pro leave, but the motivation doesn't really matter at the moment unless there is going to be a second referendum/general election and only then, if people want to motivate those to move into the remain camp.

The UK is the motherland of impllementing neoliberalism in Europe, thanks to Margaret Thatcher. Of course many people there are quite frustrated about their own social status, and if somebody comes to them telling them we do spend so much unnecessary money for the EU, where we do get nothing for in return, but it would be better spend on our - let's say NHS - and our own quality of living would improve vastly, of course enough are going to took this bait and voted leave. The other thing was that the EU never had a good standing in British tabloids and mass media.

Or to quote Bertold Brecht: erst kommt das Fressen, dann die Moral. Still so true. And still enough people in the UK think they are going to be better out of the EU than in, there's a huge divide in the population which hardly can be closed for the time being.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Oh, absolutely! Can you think of anybody Rees-Mogg respects but himself?

Does anyone know what the forthcoming schedule is likely to be - will the next major Parliamentary happenings be on Tuesday, as I loosely recall?

Sorry to reply twice, but here's a full list of the amendments they're voting on, with analysis: How will MPs amend Theresa May’s Brexit plan B?

 

[Luisa Land]

"Many observers of" is the typical modern bullshit style of pseudo journalism, sorry. It pretends a graveness, which is in reality not there, and labels opinions as facts. Which observers, names, how many and when? Such hollow phrases should really be avoided.

Yes, people voted pro leave, but the motivation doesn't really matter at the moment unless there is going to be a second referendum/general election and only then, if people want to motivate those to move into the remain camp.

The UK is the motherland of impllementing neoliberalism in Europe, thanks to Margaret Thatcher. Of course many people there are quite frustrated about their own social status, and if somebody comes to them telling them we do spend so much unnecessary money for the EU, where we do get nothing for in return, but it would be better spend on our - let's say NHS - and our own quality of living would improve vastly, of course enough are going to took this bait and voted leave. The other thing was that the EU never had a good standing in British tabloids and mass media.

Or to quote Bertold Brecht: erst kommt das Fressen, dann die Moral. Still so true. And still enough people in the UK think they are going to be better out of the EU than in, there's a huge divide in the population which hardly can be closed for the time being.

You dont like the term „political observer“.ok
political observers are normally journalists, who observe political processes and publish their impressions, opinions, assumptions..
and as far as I see, the general understanding is, that jurnalists as political observer do even that, writing opinions, impressions.
They normally dont publish results of scientific research or opinion polls...



But anyway, if we all would tell other posters, „you write bullshit“ because you use a term which I dont like, maybe is too ambiguous or whatever, this forum will soon become an unpleasant place.

I like this forum cause there is a friendly and respectfull mutual attitude... mostly



I disagree also with your opinion that motivation doesnt realy matter.
You can say, that motivation doesnt interest you. Ok

But it does me. And I dont know, why you you deny me this my interest.
for my understanding of political and social processes the understanding of what makes people tick this motivation „matters“



I was not sure, whether I should react on your post.

But I thought, maybe it helps a little bit to keep this forum friendly...

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Ahhh, tone policing.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, say experts

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.

The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.

It has been claimed that the UK could simply move to WTO terms if there is no deal with the EU. But Anneli Howard, a specialist in EU and competition law at Monckton Chambers and a member of the bar’s Brexit working group, believes this isn’t true.

“No deal means leaving with nothing,” she said. “The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 years: even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades.”

I'm swinging between thinking that crashing out with no-deal is such an appalling idea -- not just for the UK, but also for the EU and, indeed, for the rest of the world -- the world economy is in a fragile state as it is, and the 5th largest economy suddenly going belly-up would bad news for everyone -- that it can't happen, and then remembering that WW1 wasn't supposed to be able to happen, either.

In more normal times, of course, the President of the USA would be trying to lean on the UK to bring some sanity to the proceedings, but with Individual 1 in office, if not in charge of anything other than his Diet Cokes, that's just a pipe-dream.

If the worst comes to the worst, I'm not going to be around to see it for too long, I guess, but I'm genuinely glad I don't have children to worry about.

 

[Sid]

Blow for May as Ireland stresses it will not yield on Brexit backstop | The Guardian

Theresa May’s hopes of securing compromise from the EU on the backstop element of her withdrawal plan have been dealt a blow after Ireland firmly said it must stay.

The Irish deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, said the backstop “as part of the withdrawal agreement is part of a balanced package that isn’t going to change”.

Speaking on BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, Coveney said: “The backstop is already a compromise. It is a series of compromises. It was designed around British red lines.”

On Tuesday May faces a further threat to her authority when the Commons is expected to vote on a move that would potentially enable parliament to order her to demand an extension of article 50 if she cannot get a deal agreed by 26 February.

I think there is not so much to demand from the EU as long as there is no clue about how to continue.
A withdraw of Article 50 seems the only option to avoid a hard Brexit.

Last Tuesday Michel Barnier was perfectly clear about the direction the UK is heading to at the moment:

Michel Barnier says opposing no-deal Brexit will not stop it in March | The Guardian

Michel Barnier has warned that the move led by Labour MP Yvette Cooper to block the prime minister from delivering a no-deal Brexit is doomed to fail unless a majority for an alternative agreement is found.

The EU’s chief negotiator, in a speech in Brussels, said the “default” for the UK was still crashing out if MPs could not coalesce around a new vision of its future outside the bloc.

“There appears to be a majority in the Commons to oppose a no-deal but opposing a no-deal will not stop a no-deal from happening at the end of March”, he said. “To stop ‘no deal’, a positive majority for another solution will need to emerge.”

At the moment the still continuing ritual dancing in Westminster takes place terribly close to an abyss higher than the cliffs of Dover.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Blow for May as Ireland stresses it will not yield on Brexit backstop | The Guardian


I think there is not so much to demand from the EU as long as there is no clue about how to continue.
A withdraw of Article 50 seems the only option to avoid a hard Brexit.

Last Tuesday Michel Barnier was perfectly clear about the direction the UK is heading to at the moment:

Michel Barnier says opposing no-deal Brexit will not stop it in March | The Guardian


At the moment the still continuing ritual dancing in Westminster takes place terribly close to an abyss higher than the cliffs of Dover.

Giving further credence to the idea that most politicians are idiots.

If the EU and the UK have different rules there needs to be a border. That is not opinion, that is fact. The Good Friday agreement says you can not put the border between NI and England so it needs to go to the south of it. The ONLY resolution if you do not want a hard border there is to oppose article 50 itself. Or just pull out your bulletproof vests again.

The second part .... yeesh. What part of 'this is what will happen if no agreement is reached' is hard to parse? You can say you do not want that all you want, it WILL happen unless you come up with an alternative.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Giving further credence to the idea that most politicians are idiots.

If the EU and the UK have different rules there needs to be a border. That is not opinion, that is fact. The Good Friday agreement says you can not put the border between NI and England so it needs to go to the south of it. The ONLY resolution if you do not want a hard border there is to oppose article 50 itself. Or just pull out your bulletproof vests again.

The second part .... yeesh. What part of 'this is what will happen if no agreement is reached' is hard to parse? You can say you do not want that all you want, it WILL happen unless you come up with an alternative.

No, the Good Friday agreement says you can't put a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It has nothing to do with a border between the Island of Ireland and the mainland UK.

Originally, the idea -- proposed by the British but perfectly acceptable to the RoI and the EU27 in general -- was to keep NI in the single market and have customs checks when goods cross the Irish Sea.

Unfortunately, the Democratic Unionist Party, on whose support the Government depends, aren't having it. They refuse to accept any sort of different treatment for NI and rest of the UK.

In consequence, Theresa May reluctantly agreed to keep the whole of the UK in a Customs Union with the EU for the next two years -- thus avoiding a hard border during that period -- while both sides try to work something out, but the EU27, quite sensibly, insist that this period can't be time-limited, and the whole of the UK will have to remain in the customs union until a final agreement is reached, rather than risk having the same argument in two years time.

This horrifies the more extreme Brexiteers, who fear that this could mean the UK will be stuck in a customs union, unable to leave and unable to strike new deals with countries outside the EU, indefinitely -- presumably because they fear that the situation as it stands is incapable of a solution.

There are, in fact, several possible solutions -- the present problem is entirely because of the non-negotiable "red lines" Theresa May has drawn, which makes this inelegant kludge inevitable. However, Ms May's successor, be it another Conservative or Jeremy Corbyn, may well take a different view of the desirability of these red lines, thus opening the door to many possible solutions.

Or, of course, a subsequent General Election may well lead to a more conclusive result, so the votes of the DUP cease to be so important to the new government.

 

[Chin Rey]

Sorry to reply twice, but here's a full list of the amendments they're voting on, with analysis: How will MPs amend Theresa May’s Brexit plan B?

No. 6 on that list is particularly interesting. If the parliament rejects both a no-deal and May's deal, EU won't renegotiate (and why would they in that situation?) and they also refuse to revoke the withdrawal, they have eliminated every single option that actually exists. What are they going to do then?

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Epic thread on the backstop


Unrolled here, for people who would rather read it as a single page:

Thread by @Sime0nStylites: "1. It’s been a funny old week. But perhaps the weirdest part has been the various very strange British media interviews with Irish politicia […]"

 

[Beebo Brink]

If the worst comes to the worst, I'm not going to be around to see it for too long, I guess, but I'm genuinely glad I don't have children to worry about.

Just as with the dismantling of the federal government here in the U.S., the long-term effects of a hard Brexit will damage the resilience of UK and the EU to respond to the escalating economic damage of climate change. The timing really sucks.

 

[Chin Rey]

Unrolled here, for people who would rather read it as a single page:

This is a classic:
"To call the previous absence of effective (or meaningful) opposition to the backstop gross incompetence is unfair to gross incompetents everywhere. "

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

The Queen "plotted to hit Idi Amin with a sword" if he visited Britain | The Independent

Just sayin'.

 

[Free]

So the real question for the week is, would Idi Amin have been for or against Brexit?

Discuss.

 

[Essence Lumin]

So the real question for the week is, would Idi Amin have been for or against Brexit?

Discuss.

Quoting from this article: Expelled in 1972, Uganda Indians lead UK’s Brexit trade

The wheel of history has turned a full circle. Well, sort of. When Idi Amin expelled Indians from Uganda in 1972, most of them moved to Britain, settled there and prospered in various fields. Now, they are leading major trade initiatives back to Uganda and East Africa.

The Theresa May government is keen to revitalise trade links with India, Uganda and other Commonwealth countries in the post-Brexit situation, when Britain will not have access to the European Single Market.

Since Idi hated those immigrants and they likely will further prosper under Brexit he would probably be against it.

 

[Tigger]

Major Supermarkets Warn No-Deal Brexit Will Lead To Empty Shelves

Sainsbury’s, Lidl, Co-op and Morrison’s have signed a letter of warning, as well as Pret, KFC and McDonald’s.
...
The letter says that around a third of UK food comes from the EU, making up some 90% of lettuces, 80% of tomatoes and 70% of soft fruit.

The letter said that despite having worked on contingency plans, their ability to to mitigate the risks of a no-deal is “limited”.
...
“Even if there were more space it is impossible to stockpile fresh produce, such as salad leaves and fresh fruit.”

 

[detrius]

So, did any Brexiteers proclaim that the lack of fresh produce won't be a problem because they can just go back to a more traditional British cuisine?

 

[Tigger]

Traditional British cuisine comes out of tins.

 

[Kara Spengler]

So, did any Brexiteers proclaim that the lack of fresh produce won't be a problem because they can just go back to a more traditional British cuisine?

I thought they needed to import limes?

 

[Tigger]