Brexit.

[Khamon]

If Brexit, deal or hard, Scotland will quickly vote independence and their Parliament will reclaim authority currently reserved in Westminster. It’ll be a smooth transition because the Commons will be a shambles and happy to hand off any responsibility possible. Scotland will then apply for EU membership.

Wales may do the same if it means their restored Assembly can apply for EU status. This will happen relatively quickly as well if at all. The long term damage will take a few years to play out.

A hard border will eventually be established in Ireland and NI will become a war zone. I don’t say this lightly. It’s a terrifying prospect. Loyalist will find their cause ultimately abandoned because England will have become destitute and powerless. The island may eventually unify but it’ll be at a great and terrible cost.

IANHS

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I predict there will be chaos.

There is of course a chance that the parliament will accept May's deal but it's not very likely and then the timeline will be:

• 14th January: The parliament rejects May's deal.
• 15th January - 25th March: Much ado about nothing as politicians desperately try to come up with some alternative deal. Heads will probably roll and/or explode but none of that makes any difference.
• 26th March: It finally dawns on the Uk that time is running out and they are completely unprepared for a hard Brexit. Whoever is in charge at that time contacts EU and demands more time.
• 27th March: EU rejects the demand.
• 28th March: Whoever is in charge in Uk asks EU for time to hold a second referendum.
• 29th March: just in the nick of time EU agrees to postpone Brexit 6 months to give Uk time to prepare and hold a second referendum.
• 30th March-27th October: British politicians while away the days, complaining and arguing how the referendum shold be held.
• 28th October: Still not ready neither for a referendum or a hard Brexit, the British government demands that EU gives them more time.
• 29th October: EU rejects the demand and hard Brexit hits a totally unprepared Uk over night.

Or maybe they'll actually get around to holding a referendum in time. We'll see.

While I think a second referendum is the most likely outcome, I can't see it happening as early as October. From what I've read -- I can look out the articles if necessary but I can't lay my hands on them immediately -- I think 11 months is the most optimistic time estimate and I would think, in reality, a second referendum would take somewhat longer to arrange.

That's because there will be several quite contentious issues to decide before the referendum can proceed -- notably that the questions should be, but also what sort of minimum majority/turnout would be required to make the decision (whether advisory or mandatory) effective, who should be allowed to vote (EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU were both disenfranchised last time, and there's been quite some discussion about whether 16 year olds should be included) and what sort of precautions are needed to try to avoid some of the obvious irregularities and abuses that marred the first referendum.

I can't see a second referendum, if we have one, taking place before 2020.

I have no idea what's going to happen before then, though.

 

[Tigger]

If Brexit, deal or hard, Scotland will quickly vote independence and their Parliament will reclaim authority currently reserved in Westminster. It’ll be a smooth transition because the Commons will be a shambles and happy to hand off any responsibility possible. Scotland will then apply for EU membership.

Wales may do the same if it means their restored Assembly can apply for EU status. This will happen relatively quickly as well if at all. The long term damage will take a few years to play out.

A hard border will eventually be established in Ireland and NI will become a war zone. I don’t say this lightly. It’s a terrifying prospect. Loyalist will find their cause ultimately abandoned because England will have become destitute and powerless. The island may eventually unify but it’ll be at a great and terrible cost.

IANHS

May's deal IS a hard brexit, the terms were originally

SOFT - a deal that keeps us in the single market.
HARD - a deal that takes us out of the single market (May's deal)
CLIFF EDGE - no deal.

 

[Tigger]

On the question of how long does it take to get a referendum organised:


So in this country at this moment in time with the current strength of political will, about a year sounds right.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well for sure you cannot compare a country with around 10,7 million inhabitants with one of around 66 million. How quick a referendum happens is not just a matter of political will, but also of how easy or complex the process is which needs to be started and simply the ability to print millions of ballot papers and spread them throughout the country.

 

[Sid]

Well for sure you cannot compare a country with around 10,7 million inhabitants with one of around 66 million. How quick a referendum happens is not just a matter of political will, but also of how easy or complex the process is which needs to be started and simply the ability to print millions of ballot papers and spread them throughout the country.

For a printing company that is capable to print one of the national tabloids in a few hours, 66 million ballot papers would take a few hours to print. Full color, double sided, folded and bundled together.
For a post delivery company as Royal Mail spreading them would take as long as delivering a parcel from Amazon. So within 2 days.
Setting up the polling stations? Possible in the same two days that the Royal Mail needs for delivering the ballot papers.
So, if there was the political will to do so, I think a referendum could even take place before New Years day, if it were that urgent.
Campaigning is not needed. I don't think that there is a Brit over 12 years old that doesn't know where he/she stands in this matter.

 

[Casey Pelous]

It strikes me that if anyone wrote Chin's or Tigger's scenarios as a Dramatic Cable TV Series (ominous orchestral music plays ....) starring big British Theatre People with Knighthoods (whose names we don't quite recall but we know we've seen them somewhere and we're pretty sure they have something to do with Shakespeare or maybe Lord of the Rings) and produced by Some Guy who Produced Some Other Dramatic Things, it would get laughed out of every board room as lame-ass satire, or a bad copy of Monty Python.

And yet ..... and yet .................. here we are.

 

[Tigger]

If you can take a detached view of the whole situation it's quite interesting, looking at the actions and words of the politicians, speculating on what motivates them, seeing how far they are willing to go and what scale of damage they are willing to contemplate.

But I don't think any of this process, least of all the final outcome, is going to do british democracy any favours. At best trust in politicians, already low, will be eroded further. At worst, well, just remember the title of that book that Jacob Rees-Mogg's dad wrote.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

On the question of how long does it take to get a referendum organised:


So in this country at this moment in time with the current strength of political will, about a year sounds right.

The UCL Constitution Unit has done some research on this. According to their calculations, the absolute minimum a referendum could take to organise, given the constraints of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 and the need to get the necessary legislation through Parliament, seems to be about 22 weeks from the legislation being introduced to the vote being held.

However, as I mentioned, there are very serious questions to be resolved before any referendum can be held -- among them, should there be two or three questions, and if there three, what sort of voting method should be used, for example, and who should be the electorate, and what constraints should there be on the campaigns and how should they be policed?

These would need to be resolved by our current parliament, of course, and there's no obvious majority for any particular option.

The first referendum took 13 months to organize. Obviously there would be a lot more urgency about this one, but it will be a much more complex undertaking, and it will happen (if it does happen) in far more difficult parliamentary circumstances, where the government has no majority.

So I think 12 months is a pretty optimistic estimate.

 

[Essence Lumin]

So I think 12 months is a pretty optimistic estimate.

From what I've read in this thread the EU might just say "12 months? Bye".

 

[Veritable Quandry]

I suspect that the EU would extend the deadline with a clear referendum planned between May Plan and Remain. I do not think they would extend the deadline for a Deal or No Deal referendum or to renegotiate seeing as the UK has not been a particularly good negotiating partner so far and no other deal is likely to get through Parliament either.

If I were to lay odds I would say right now May's deal has about a 10% chance, with equal odds on a hard Brexit due to inaction or Remain winning a second referendum. Most scenarios where May's government collapses would probably end with a hard Brexit since Labor and the hardcore Conservatives both seem to think they can reopen negotiations.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Referendum question:

ARE YOU BLOODY WELL SURE?

Yes
No

If my solution is selected I would be prepared to accept honourary EU citizenship in lieu of payment.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

From what I've read in this thread the EU might just say "12 months? Bye".

I don't think so. The EU have made it pretty clear that they' d rather the UK remained in the EU, and also they don't want to be seen to be forcing a member to leave if that's possibly against that member's will.

Moreover, the consequences of the UK crashing out of the EU would be pretty bad for the EU. They'd be considerably worse for the UK but there's no doubt it would be very damaging for several EU countries, too. It's not something anyone other than the Brexit Taliban want.

I suspect that the EU would extend the deadline with a clear referendum planned between May Plan and Remain. I do not think they would extend the deadline for a Deal or No Deal referendum or to renegotiate seeing as the UK has not been a particularly good negotiating partner so far and no other deal is likely to get through Parliament either.

If I were to lay odds I would say right now May's deal has about a 10% chance, with equal odds on a hard Brexit due to inaction or Remain winning a second referendum. Most scenarios where May's government collapses would probably end with a hard Brexit since Labor and the hardcore Conservatives both seem to think they can reopen negotiations.

I agree that the only sensible choices in the referendum are Remain vs May's deal. There's no parliamentary majority of no deal, and having "renegotiate" as an option is a non-starter, since the EU have made it clear this is their best offer given the British government's "red lines," and neither they nor the British government want to prolong the negotiations for no good reason.

However, that is an argument that will have to be made at the time -- at the moment, the government's policy is to try to get this deal through parliament and Labour's policy is to force a General Election. So we'll have to see how things look come late January or early February.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Time for some Swiss comedy:

 

[Tigger]

Ah, so this is why she delayed her vote until January. So she can bribe MPs with the new years honours list.

Theresa May bribes Tory MPs with Christmas honours ahead of the Brexit vote

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Ah, so this is why she delayed her vote until January. So she can bribe MPs with the new years honours list.

Theresa May bribes Tory MPs with Christmas honours ahead of the Brexit vote

Wiser to pay them after the vote, I'd have thought.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

And Corbyn somewhat moved: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has urged the prime minister to cut short MPs' Christmas break to allow for an earlier vote on her Brexit deal.

"What I suspect is that it's a completely cynical manoeuvre to run down the clock and offer MPs the choice of the devil or the deep blue sea."

Recall MPs for Brexit vote, Corbyn urges

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Of rather more significance that Corbyn's call (which will be ignored, and is pretty much theatre anyway) is this article by the Conservative MP and former Attorney General, Dominic Grieve, outlining routes to a second referendum after Parliament does finally reassemble and the deal is voted down: Parliament is incapable of settling Brexit. We need a second referendum | Dominic Grieve.

The paper to which the article links, Roads Not Yet Explored: Routes to a Final Say, is somewhat technical (and I have no idea how well it would work in practice) but it describes parliamentary tactics that can be used to put pressure on the government to take crashing out of the EU with no deal off the table as the default option. Dominic Grieve has already established himself as a skilled parliamentary tactician (he was responsible for the procedural motion that enables MPs to amend the government's motion on the Withdrawal Agreement), so I think he knows what he's talking about.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

What's everyone's predictions for 2019 for Brexit ?

 

[Luisa Land]

the german Spiegel Online one of the most widely read german-language news-websites (Spiegel Online - Wikipedia)
writes about the role of Corbyn and the situation of Labour. concerning Brexit
(I think translation by google):



"All this shows that Brexit remains a huge problem for Labor. There is no common line. The largest group of MEPs considers the EU withdrawal to be fundamentally wrong. But only a part wants to fight against it. Others do not dare to question the democratic decision of 2016. Especially in numerous high-strength laboratories, many people voted for Brexit. In addition, some fear exit without agreement so much that they do not want to take any risks - and are ready to seal the Brexit with a deal. ......
.........

The crucial question remains one way or the other: For which policy does Labor want to fight?

So far, Corbyn has limited himself to calling for a "better deal". The party leadership has formulated six rather vague goals: a strong relationship with the EU must be ensured, it is said. Moreover, they demand "exactly the same benefits" as under membership in the Internal Market and Customs Union.

Corbyns biggest problem: Especially among his own followers, many want to stay in the EU. In 2015, a broad left-wing movement had carried the Labor outsider to the party leader - many of whom were young people, many of whom rejected Brexit.

A part of Corbyn's supporters could now go a long way to the party leader - or has already done so. Clive Lewis, one of the 36 Labor MPs who nominated Corbyn for senior leadership in 2015, said after the Guardian interview that left-wing party members could no longer campaign for Labor. Representative Lloyd Russell-Moyle wrote about his constituency: "If I support Brexit, I'm off in Brighton."
.........
........

According to a YouGov poll, over 70 percent of Labor voters are in favor of staying in the EU. Of course, Brexit studies have been shown to be cautious in the UK . Nevertheless, they should register with Labor exactly.

Especially results such as this: Only slightly more than 20 percent of voters would vote for the poll in new elections for Labor, if the party wants to continue the Brexit simply continue."


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