Brexit.

[Sid]

I find it remarkable how many people in the comments think that rejoining the EU will be as easy as leaving it.
They simply don't understand in what kind of position the UK has maneuvered itself. The UK isn't in any position to demand a re-entry into the EU.
Another general election or referendum will not make that a done deal.
The EU could not stop the UK leaving, but they can put a re-entry on hold like forever.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I find it remarkable how many people in the comments think that rejoining the EU will be as easy as leaving it.
They simply don't understand in what kind of position the UK has maneuvered itself. The UK isn't in any position to demand a re-entry into the EU.
Another general election or referendum will not make that a done deal.
The EU could not stop the UK leaving, but they can put a re-entry on hold like forever.

I'm on the mailing list for several serious pro-EU organisations in the UK, and from what I read there, by people who want us to rejoin and also know how the EU works, we're out for the next twenty-odd years, at least.

While obviously no-one can predict how things will look in the EU, the UK or anywhere else that far in advance, the figure of twenty plus years is simply based on estimates of how long it's going to be before a British government feels able to start discussions about re-joining, plus how long negotiating an agreement and then getting it approved by the EU and all the member states will take, assuming all goes well.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

EU: Ready for some Euros?
Spain: So, about Gibraltar.
France: So, about Jersey and Guernsey.
Canada: So, about St Pierre and Michelon.
France: That's different.
French Polynesia: Oh really.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[WolfEyes]

I'm really not surprised Boris jumped ship before the Titanic hit the iceberg. I've been expecting it for some time now. I just thought it would be a little longer.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I find it remarkable how many people in the comments think that rejoining the EU will be as easy as leaving it.
They simply don't understand in what kind of position the UK has maneuvered itself. The UK isn't in any position to demand a re-entry into the EU.
Another general election or referendum will not make that a done deal.
The EU could not stop the UK leaving, but they can put a re-entry on hold like forever.

Well... of course there will be negotiations and so on, the usual procedure if the UK should re-apply for EU membership. But there is one big difference between normal applicants and the UK: the UK was for decades member of the EU, so has implement lots of the EU laws into national law as well as other regulations. This is something applicants normally have to do, the UK has already done that.

So this is where the UK has one big advantage over other applicants - been there, done that. And for most of the EU law even without being in the EU it doesn't make sense for the UK do create own laws, because a) on many they contributed, b) the EU laws are in place and good enough for the UK. So this would be unnecessary work to get rid of it.

 

[Dain Shan]

I find it remarkable how many people in the comments think that rejoining the EU will be as easy as leaving it.
They simply don't understand in what kind of position the UK has maneuvered itself. The UK isn't in any position to demand a re-entry into the EU.
Another general election or referendum will not make that a done deal.
The EU could not stop the UK leaving, but they can put a re-entry on hold like forever.

Im more baffled about all the ppl in that tweet who claim Brexit must be kept at any cost.
Well, beside that, i agree. The EU will not let Britain join again under this circumstances.

 

[Sid]

Well... of course there will be negotiations and so on, the usual procedure if the UK should re-apply for EU membership. But there is one big difference between normal applicants and the UK: the UK was for decades member of the EU, so has implement lots of the EU laws into national law as well as other regulations. This is something applicants normally have to do, the UK has already done that.

So this is where the UK has one big advantage over other applicants - been there, done that. And for most of the EU law even without being in the EU it doesn't make sense for the UK do create own laws, because a) on many they contributed, b) the EU laws are in place and good enough for the UK. So this would be unnecessary work to get rid of it.

Just one topic that is a game breaker to start with: The British Pound.
If the UK wants to join, it will have to let the pound go. Those are the current rules for entering the EU: one has to switch to the Euro.
And.... if the EU is smart, it will not accept any "special snowflake" position for the UK when they want to rejoin, not even for the Pound Sterling, plus we will have to work out how to avoid that after a few decades the UK will want to leave again.
I'm 65 and I don't think that I will witness a reentry of the UK in my lifetime to be honest. The UK did not make new friends in the leave process. As Kamilah already stated, some states do have long term unsolved issues with the UK.

I said it before, the membership of the EU is not the same as a membership from the local tennis club that one can enter or leave at whim.

 

[Tirellia]

Of course there is always the option for the UK to rejoin with the promise that it will surrender all sovereignty and accept the Euro. And then delay and delay and delay and delay the adoption of the Euro.

 

[Sid]

Of course there is always the option for the UK to rejoin with the promise that it will surrender all sovereignty and accept the Euro. And then delay and delay and delay and delay the adoption of the Euro.

I think that the EU knows by now how the UK behaves lately on things that are agreed upon.
Of course the UK can apply again, but the EU has no obligation to accept it blind folded with their hands tight to their backs.
What about adoption of the Euro on day one, or no deal?

 

[Tirellia]

I think that the EU knows by now how the UK behaves lately on things that are agreed upon.
Of course the UK can apply again, but the EU has no obligation to accept it blind folded with their hands tight to their backs.
What about adoption of the Euro on day one, or no deal?

And that would end EU expansion immediately. There is already push-back within the EU against some of the dreams of the EU Parliament and the EU Commission.

 

[Sid]

And that would end EU expansion immediately. There is already push-back within the EU against some of the dreams of the EU Parliament and the EU Commission.

There is no one forcing any country to apply for a membership.

On the other hand, the results of Brexit forced a lot of loud mouths about Nexit, Frexit etc. to soften their tone inside the EU.

 

[detrius]

I'd rather welcome Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland back into the EU.

England can do its little Switzerland thing, for all I care.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

England doesn't want to be Switzerland, which is tied to the EU with lots of contracts. The dream was to be like Singapore.

 

[Tirellia]

England doesn't want to be Switzerland, which is tied to the EU with lots of contracts. The dream was to be like Singapore.

You're suggesting there was a dream? I think it was more like a toddler's tantrum.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I think that the EU knows by now how the UK behaves lately on things that are agreed upon.
Of course the UK can apply again, but the EU has no obligation to accept it blind folded with their hands tight to their backs.
What about adoption of the Euro on day one, or no deal?

Actually any sane country at the moment should reject the idea of using the Euro as currency when wanting to join the EU. The Euro, as it is right now, is quite flawed and implementing it brings a lot of problems with it. Just like what happened to Greece and Italy when introducing it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/10/joseph-stiglitz-the-problem-with-europe-is-the-euro

 

[Sid]

Seems the Euro is a good weapon to keep the UK out for the near future.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I can't see the UK applying to re-join, or the EU being prepared to spend much time considering the application, until both the two main political parties in the UK broadly support the idea.

At best, Labour will win the next election and spend the next four or five years trying to "make Brexit work," while adopting a more cooperative and conciliatory approach to the EU in trying to resolve particular issues that both sides want to see resolved in the interests of a more harmonious relationship.

Meanwhile, members of the Conservative Party, recovering from what will likely be a crushing defeat in 2024/25, will probably decide they lost because they were insufficiently right-wing and anti-EU, and choose someone like Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch. This won't work, and they'll experience a similarly disappointing result in 2028-9, at which point they'll see sense and try to move back to the centre ground.

Meanwhile, although Labour will have presided over marginal improvements to our relationship with the EU, it'll be clear to everyone that any real progress will depend on our having a much closer relationship with the Union.

At this point, quite possibly under a new leader themselves, Labour will be able to talk about discussing a new relationship with the EU. To my mind, it'll become clear sooner or later that the only sensible option -- and the most advantageous to the UK -- would be re-joining as a full member, though I think that it's going to be harder than people expect to persuade the public of the benefits of free movement and joining Schengen, even if the EU is prepared to accept some sort of a fudge about our adopting the Euro (Sweden, I think, have retained their currency without difficulty).

But by this time we're well into the late 2030s, and my crystal ball doesn't see that far ahead.

 

[Sid]

When the Euro was introduced there were countries that did not take the euro as their cuurency. Seven countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden) are EU members but do not use the euro.
Later on in history is decided that all new members have to commit to the euro.

From the Schengenvisa site:
"In order for a country to become part of the EU, the same must meet all the membership criteria, otherwise also known as ‘Copenhagen Criteria’. The main criteria are the free-market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including the euro."