Brexit.

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Well, to say it with Robert Peston (see above):

Here is the fundamental stumbling block to a free trade deal. And truthfully I am not sure how it can be sorted. The EU wants the unilateral right to toughen up its labour laws, or environmental standards or other so-called level-playing-field rules. Any such new rules...
would not automatically apply to the UK. But the EU wants an arbitration mechanism to determine whether the change in rules would confer a competitive advantage to the UK. And if the balance of competitive advantage tilted to the UK, the EU would want to allow...
the possibility of tariffs being imposed on relevant UK exports. And the UK would have the symmetrical right if it so chose to toughen labour laws etc. This is not an issue of sovereignty but of complexity and uncertainty for business. And it is difficult to see...
how a UK government could agree to it. To be clear, the UK has more-or-less agreed not to weaken its existing Labour, environmental and other level-playing-field rules. What is called "non-regression" is almost sorted. But the framework for capturing the risks to each side...
as their laws diverge is proving nightmarishly hard to agree. This stuff is so complex that I honestly don't see how a deal can be done in the three weeks available, even if all the officials were to work through Christmas

In other words: all are on the same page at the moment, but the framework which should capture risks at each side in case somebody misbehaves is a really hard beast to create and to agree with, because it implements anti free trade mechanisms should it be triggered. And that's the main problem at the moment.

Fishing rights? The French already gave the Brits a taste of what will happen if they are unhappy: they would not accept British fish any longer in their fish factories, where a good chunk of British fish gets processed on. And since the majority of British fish anyway gets exported either the Brits would have to eat much more fish from now on, or use it for other means.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Fishing rights are, I'm pretty sure, a red herring, for want of a better term. The fishing industry's contribution to GDP is a rounding error in the national budget. No matter how much he blusters, Johnson won't risk a no-deal Brexit over fish, I'm certain.

Similarly, the framework for future risks is a real issue, but assuming both sides are negotiating more or less in good faith, it can't be worth wrecking the deal over -- how has it been handled in free trade agreements with other countries? It can't be the first time the question has come up, after all.

ETA

Boris Johnson and EU set Sunday deadline to decide on Brexit deal

Significant gaps remain between PM and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen after Brussels dinner

www.theguardian.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Similarly, the framework for future risks is a real issue, but assuming both sides are negotiating more or less in good faith, it can't be worth wrecking the deal over

Some agreements have arbitral tribunals in place for such occasions, something which I am quite sure Johnson does not want to have.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Some agreements have arbitral tribunals in place for such occasions, something which I am quite sure Johnson does not want to have.

I don't think it matters much to Johnson one way or another. I think he simply wants to come out of this with some sort of deal he can half-way plausibly present to his backbenchers as a great deal for Britain, and have this phase of the break-up over.

I really don't think he intends to remain in office long enough to have to worry about how a dispute may be settled some two or three years, or more, in the future -- that's someone else's problem.

 

[Sid]

We might trow in some cheese agreement. That the EU buys a few kilo's of it extra every month.
It worked for Japan.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

We might trow in some cheese agreement. That the EU buys a few kilo's of it extra every month.
It worked for Japan.

Interesting:

Chowhound - The Site for Food Nerds: Cooking Tips, Culinary How-To's, & More.

Chowhound is the site for food nerds - from expert chef tips to culinary how-to's, helpful ingredient lists, baking science, and more.

www.chowhound.com

 

[Arkady Arkright]

We'll know for sure soon enough, though maybe not tomorrow.

Now deferred to Sunday.

I'm haunted by the fact, though, that WWI started by accident, more or less, or at least no one expected it to happen until suddenly it did.

Indeed...

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I don't think it matters much to Johnson one way or another. I think he simply wants to come out of this with some sort of deal he can half-way plausibly present to his backbenchers as a great deal for Britain, and have this phase of the break-up over.

Wasn't one of the reasons many wanted Brexit that they don't want to have foreign courts any ruling power about the UK any longer? Such a tribunal would be again more or less exactly that.

 

[Sid]

If you want to be part of the single market, something has to have the authority to ensure that both sites stay in line with the rules of that market. So there is a leveled playing field, no one wants to get screwed by another member.
And the Nordern Island trick BJ tried to pull off recently, proves that point completely. And that the club of 27 want a stronger say than the club of 3.1 makes sense as well IMHO.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Wasn't one of the reasons many wanted Brexit that they don't want to have foreign courts any ruling power about the UK any longer? Such a tribunal would be again more or less exactly that.

What they wanted and what they're going to get were always going to be two different things, though. There always has to be a way of resolving disputes between the various state party to an international treaty, whether it's a free trade agreement with the EU or (failing that) the WTO membership agreement.

We'll see what happens, but I don't see this as the hill on which (or ditch in which) he's prepared to die, any more than was asking for an extension last October, for all his protestations to the contrary.

As I understand it, the section on the Irish border they've agreed basically does what he promised the Ulster Unionists he'd never do, and I expect his more crazed Europhobic MPs may soon be in for similar disappointment.

ETA: This thread, which I've just seen, puts the case far better than could I

 

[Veritable Quandry]

We might trow in some cheese agreement. That the EU buys a few kilo's of it extra every month.
It worked for Japan.

Good idea. If you can’t get Tillamook Cheddar, the English stuff is almost as good.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

For Europe, losing Britain is bad. Keeping Hungary and Poland could be worse | Timothy Garton Ash

The populists of Budapest and Warsaw are blackmailing the EU over the rule of law. They cannot be allowed to succeed, says the historian Timothy Garton Ash

www.theguardian.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

What they wanted and what they're going to get were always going to be two different things, though. There always has to be a way of resolving disputes between the various state party to an international treaty, whether it's a free trade agreement with the EU or (failing that) the WTO membership agreement.

We'll see what happens, but I don't see this as the hill on which (or ditch in which) he's prepared to die, any more than was asking for an extension last October, for all his protestations to the contrary.

As I understand it, the section on the Irish border they've agreed basically does what he promised the Ulster Unionists he'd never do, and I expect his more crazed Europhobic MPs may soon be in for similar disappointment.

ETA: This thread, which I've just seen, puts the case far better than could I

More (thread)

 

[Sid]

Boris Johnson: no-deal Brexit now a 'strong possibility'

PM says he cannot accept UK being ‘locked in EU’s orbit’, but Tories urge him to strike deal

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

So be it. The UK had enough extensions and time to make up their mind.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

So be it. The UK had enough extensions and time to make up their mind.

I think they've said they're going to carry on talking until at least Sunday.

We'll see what happens.

The thing about Johnson is that he doesn't have an ounce of principle in his body, so it's really difficult to imagine him crashing us out with no deal over something like this -- we've seen this act before, most recently last year, with proroguing parliament, or trying to, and then all the drama last autumn about how he wasn't going to ask for an extension and would die in a ditch and whatever else.

No one seriously believed the act then, and I certainly don't believe it now.

However, I can all too well believe he'll blunder into a no deal Brexit by accident.

 

[Arkady Arkright]

However, I can all too well believe he'll blunder into a no deal Brexit by accident.

Almost inevitable now, I think.

The newspapers seem to be losing interest anyway - major stories today would appear to be the death of a cockney actress, and someone on horseback allowing a dog to kil a fox...

We're still fucked, apparently...

 

[Sid]

UK and EU say no-deal Brexit is now most likely outcome

PM says no deal would be ‘wonderful’ as it emerges France and Germany rebuffed overtures

www.theguardian.com

EU leaders have been told by Ursula von der Leyen that Britain exiting the transition period without a trade and security deal is now the most likely outcome.
During a 10-minute briefing at the end of an all-night summit in Brussels, the European Commission president refused to put a percentage on the chances of agreement but told the leaders there was a “higher probability for no deal than deal”, sources said.

Ireland’s prime minister, Micheál Martin, whose country would be the EU member state most impacted by the lack of a deal, emphasised the damage that would be reaped if the negotiators in Brussels could not agree on terms.
He repeated the EU mantra, however, that a deal would not be at any price given the risk to European businesses if their British counterparts were to benefit from lower environmental, social and labour standards while enjoying zero tariff terms for their exports into the bloc.

 

[Sid]