Afghanistan Falls

[Cindy Claveau]

For the time being is the key phrase here. I'll give them two years, five at most, before there is a strong guerrilla that is doing to the Taliban what the Taliban did to the old regime.

There are already resistance groups like that, such as the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan.

WAPO Paywall: The mujahideen resistance to the Taliban begins now. But we need help.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

And now a word from POTUS regarding Afghanistan - "Our mission was never supposed to be nation building." Ok.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Time for another episode of the beloved series "Not the Onion": Taliban spokesman accuses Facebook of stifling free speech by banning group.

Yup, the Taliban are angry that they are banned on Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp because they are viewed as terrorists.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

And now a word from POTUS regarding Afghanistan - "Our mission was never supposed to be nation building." Ok.

Bush clearly wanted that mission but I think all 3 presidents after him knew how unrealistic that was. I honestly have no idea what they could have done differently that would be less of a cluster fuck.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

In the mean time the German army only shipped home 7 Afghans by plane, because the rest had no - drum roll - recent enough negative COVID tests. Yup, sad but true. Now that's a genius method to keep your plane from overcrowding with people compared to the American and British ones which barely could take off!

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/german-plane-evacuates-only-7-people-from-afghanistan-sparks-public-outcry/2337856

Thankfully though another plane will be full of important stuff, which they cannot at all cost leave in Afghanistan... which is beer. More precisely around 22.500 litres of beer, also wine and champagne. Well, priorities or so...

Germany to ship army beer home from Afghanistan

More than 22,500 litres of beer will fly home as Nato troops prepare to withdraw from the country.

www.bbc.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Bush clearly wanted that mission but I think all 3 presidents after him knew how unrealistic that was. I honestly have no idea what they could have done differently that would be less of a cluster fuck.

Well whatever Bush wanted officially was a lie, because Afghanistan was just the training ground for the people who made 9/11 happen. The leading people back then were trained by the USA in the 1980s, like Osama Bin Laden. And Bin Laden is a well known construction company in Saudi Arabia, so he was a citizen of KSA. Al Qaeda was mostly financed back then and backed by Saudi Arabia, or people from there.

And back then it was not like Afghans cared about the USA much, or had a major antipathy against them like Iran has. Most just cared about surviving, and the bad boys were still then the Russians for them.

 

[Romana]

Bush clearly wanted that mission but I think all 3 presidents after him knew how unrealistic that was. I honestly have no idea what they could have done differently that would be less of a cluster fuck.

I'm not sure what TFG thought. He said he wanted to bring the troops home, but would he have? He's probably have put it off and punted to the next president, unless he became dictator, and them the same thing would've happened.
Now, there'll probably be plenty of "Only I could've fixed it".
Whatever you think about Biden, do you really think TFG would've handled it any better?
The guy who'll probably run Iraq was in jail until TFG let him out.

 

[bubblesort]

First Bush, now Condi is popping her head up to give her opinion. Fuck all these losers. They are literally the last people anybody wants to hear from right now. They need to shut the fuck up. The only thing I want from any Bush, Obama, or Trump administration official regarding Afghanistan is a short, sweet apology, with no weasely excuses. They can just ackgnowledge that they don't know how to kill goat herders, with an unlimited military budget, and 20 years, and admit they got America's ass kicked in an extremely winnable war. Then, they can disappear into obscurity again. They can ackgnowledge the humiliating loss, to help us learn from it, and that's it. Their lame excuses are hurting our ability to learn to he better than them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/17/condoleezza-rice-afghans-didnt-choose-taliban/

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

An interesting piece of text at Al Jazeera, which compares the fall of Iraq's army in 2014 with what we are witnessing right now in Afghanistan. Both were installed by Americans, trained and managed American style.

Indeed, despite the many fundamental differences between the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, military failures of both states were caused by the same three factors:

First, the United States sought to impose the rigid, hierarchical American military doctrine on both armies, without considering the differences in the Afghan and Iraqi cultural contexts.

Second, these enfeebled armies had to face off against either ISIL or the Taliban – violent non-state actors which possess a stronger “asabiyya” (group solidarity) than them.

Third, there were weak leaders both in Kabul and Baghdad – former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq and recently departed President Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan – resulting in ineffective administrations and faltering governance. Alongside the US, these leaders allowed networks of patronage and corruption to take root in their countries’ militaries during their respective rebuilding processes, enabling the eventual success of ISIL and the Taliban.

[...]

The problem is that in both cases the US efforts resulted in armies created in the image of the US military, with a rigid, centralised hierarchy. Washington hoped that these copy-cat armies would eventually develop the necessary capabilities to conduct large-scale ground operations with air support from the US. Neither army achieved this goal, which soon proved redundant anyway as both Afghanistan and Iraq became theatres of asymmetric warfare and armed groups’ attacks.

In both Afghanistan and Iraq, the US provided sophisticated weaponry to the new military forces, such as aircraft, but it soon became clear that local forces cannot maintain these complex equipment without a constant deployment of US military advisers on site. Other US weapons, including jeeps, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and tanks, ironically ended up in the hands of ISIL or the Taliban, resulting in the US taxpayer indirectly subsidising these groups.

And Sarah Chayes already saw these days' events coming back in 2015:

The state security forces’ corruption and predatory behaviour, especially at checkpoints, alienated local populations in both Iraq and Afghanistan. In her book, Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security, Sarah Chayes wrote about a disgruntled Afghan civilian who was so fed up with paying bribes to the post-2001 security forces that he wished for the Taliban to come and rid him of this nuisance. This anecdote is just one of many examples of how corruption deprived security forces in both countries of any legitimacy and public support prior to their spectacular defeats.

The collapse of Afghan military: We’ve seen this movie before

Whats happening in Afghanistan now is bringing back memories of what happened in Iraq in 2014.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Mona Eberhardt]

While all the world acts surprised and shocked (SHOCKED, I TELLS YA!!!!!!!!111111) at the situation in Afghanistan, let's brush up on History a bit...

I'm starting with this "peace deal" that was signed between the Taliban and the US of A (while Trump was in charge) on February 29, 2020. It's really a magnificent document:

Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America​

This Abdul Ghani Baradar guy is #2 in Taliban hierarchy and could very well be the next leader of Afghanistan. He was released by Pakistan, as requested by the US, a few months earlier. This "peace deal" was obviously the reason why:

Pakistan frees Taliban co-founder at US request; will play constructive role in Afghan peace initiative

Pakistan released Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar at US’ request to help expedite the Afghan peace talks

www.nationalheraldindia.com

Aaaaaand he wasn't the only one:

Taliban member, released by Obama from Gitmo, planned their Afghan return

Khairullah Khairkhwa was released from the Guantanamo Bay prison along with four other Taliban prisoners by former US President Barack Obama. The 'Gitmo Five' were labelled "hardest of the hardcore" by US intelligence officials who urged Obama to reconsider his decision.

www.hindustantimes.com

Meanwhile, the Taliban were in talks with everyone.

First of all, with the Afghan government (which "wasn't expecting" them to come back to rule the roost). In Iran. Note: in diplomacy, where talks are taking place is every bit as important as who talks to whom:

Afghan gov’t delegation meets Taliban in Iran

Tehran hosts first significant peace talks in months in a previously unannounced meeting that comes as US forces leave.

www.aljazeera.com

With China, of course:

China’s talks with Taliban could be a positive thing, US says

Delegation from militants meets Chinese foreign minister as Beijing seeks to extend influence in Afghanistan

www.theguardian.com

With India:

Why did India open a backchannel to the Taliban?

Recent developments in the region forced India to rethink its approach to the armed group.

www.aljazeera.com

With Turkey - in the illegally-occupied Northern Cyprus, no less:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/turkey-ready-to-discuss-afghan-peace-process-with-taliban-turkish-president/2309792

With Russia, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan:

Turkmen, Uzbek, Russian Officials Hold Talks With Taliban Amid Deteriorating Afghan Security

The Taliban says representatives of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Russia have held talks with the chief of the group's political office in Qatar amid growing regional concerns over the insurgents' ongoing military offensive across Afghanistan.

www.rferl.org

AWWWWW, the Europeans felt left out, and reckoned they should start negotiations with the paedophile, femicidal, rape-prone religious nuts:

EU foreign policy chief urges Afghan government to work with Taliban

The Afghan government should engage with the Taliban to reach an inclusive settlement, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Thursday as the militant group made rapid gains amid spiralling violence and worries of a refugee crisis.

www.reuters.com

Germany would never miss a chance to hold talks with a disgusting riff-raff:

Germany holds talks with Afghan Taliban

Asks militants to engage with govt.

www.thehindu.com

The Brits, ever the diplomats, said they would not recognise a Taliban government if it took control of the country by force:

Britain will not recognise a Taliban govt. that takes power by force: U.K. envoy to U.N.

‘We are working alongside partners to try and make sure that we can return Afghanistan to a pathway towards security and prosperity’

www.thehindu.com

France tried to secure a teeny-tiny role in this since 2012, but their scene was cut out - exactly what happened to Penny Hofstadter, née Teller with her part in NCIS:

Taliban say they will attend meeting in France on Afghanistan, but won't talk about peace

The Taliban say they will attend a meeting in France to discuss Afghanistan's future but will not talk about peace and reconciliation.

www.foxnews.com

...and they got miffed at being left out, because they'd pulled out of Afghanistan in 2014, so they said "nuh-uh, we're not releasing these three top Taliban," and everyone else was asking them to reconsider.

France opposes release of 3 Taliban prisoners

The French government has urged Afghan authorities to not release three Taliban militants that are convicted for killing French nationals. The statement could further delay crucial intra-Afghan negotiations.

www.dw.com

Heh. It looks like the only nation with which the Taliban hadn't already made arrangements to ensure they'd be able to regain control of Afghanistan unopposed and unobstructed was the Sovereign State of Forvik. Now tell me again the Taliban "stormed" the country and "occupied" it; what happened was a complete transfer of power. OK, the Taliban didn't make any stops along the way to take a piss or have a smoke on their way to Kabul, and they didn't sit down to be briefed by their predecessors...

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Dominic Raab ‘refused to be contacted’ in days before Afghanistan fell

Calls for foreign secretary to quit after he passed crucial call to junior minister while on holiday

www.theguardian.com

Evernote link

The calls for his resignation follow a report that while on holiday in Crete, Raab was advised by departmental officials on Friday to speak by phone to his Afghan counterpart, Hanif Atmar, to request assistance on the removal of translators who had worked with the British military, as the Taliban advanced on Kabul.


According to the Daily Mail, officials were told Raab was not available, and that the junior minister, Zac Goldsmith, a Tory peer, should make the call instead. However, the paper said, as Goldsmith was not Atmar’s direct equivalent, there was a delay of a day in the call happening.

I think though, that our Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who served an officer in an elite Guards regiment before he entered politics, and was clearly very upset by the way the withdrawal was handled and very critical of the Foreign Office, has a point when he says that, by last Friday, no phone calls from anyone in the UK to anyone in the Afghan government would have helped much.

It's typical of this lot -- deny there's a problem until it's too big to ignore, and then throw up their hands saying no one can now do anything about it.,

 

[Free]

Cue the new right-wing outrage.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

What I Learned While Eavesdropping on the Taliban

I spent 600 hours listening in on the people who now run Afghanistan. It wasn’t until the end of my tour that I understood what they were telling me.

www.theatlantic.com

Evernote link

 

[Grandma Bates]

What I Learned While Eavesdropping on the Taliban

I spent 600 hours listening in on the people who now run Afghanistan. It wasn’t until the end of my tour that I understood what they were telling me.

www.theatlantic.com

Evernote link

That sounds familiar:

Peoples Century | Guerrilla Wars | Col. David Hackworth

www.pbs.org

 

[Jopsy Pendragon]

Not sure they even can "mean it" because they have no idea what "it" is. They probably don't think they ever did not respect women's rights. They don't know the concept.

I'll grant them this much, they know the west loves soundbites and hates nuance, so they make a statement they know will be truncated to something that 'sounds good' but the full statement was blatantly ominous in the degree to which is suggested the -exact- opposite.

"We don't want any internal or external enemies," the movement's main spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said. Women would be allowed to work and study and "will be very active in society but within the framework of Islam"

-- Taliban pledge peace and women's rights under Islam as they strike conciliatory tone

(bolding mine)

I've read elsewhere that 'study' means 'religious studies only', not other general academic areas. Which probably means it's going to end up like a special 'extra hour a day of being lectured about prayer' and re-affirming the regressively limited roles and obligations of women in Islam.

And 'work'? Sure, in the home, maybe in sweatshops, possibly retail in places that -only- serve women. Supervisory/management position in a place where men work? Absolutely not. Some place working along side men, or serving male customers, certainly not. In the probably unlikely cases where there is actual compensation, I'm sure we can presume it absolutely will not even come close to approximating a living wage, and be paid only to her father or husband.

So yeah, they say "respect women's rights" and I hear "to be treated as a subservient lessor species, and still at risk of being put down if a man feels like it, so long as he does so in accordance with Islamic Law"

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Here's a very interesting discussion of the way some strands of White, Western feminism have become intertwined with imperialist wars

How the War On Terror Became America’s First “Feminist” War

“I’m fine,” the pale, red-haired Jessica Chastain says as she takes off her full black jumpsuit and face mask. The scene is from Kathryn Bigelow’s 2012 film Zero Dark Thirty, which despite the seem…

lithub.com

It's not unfamiliar territory to me, since as a Brit of my age and background who was once married to an Indian, I'm very aware of my country's imperial history and how it's shaped contemporary British society and our former colonial possessions, but it's still uncomfortable reading.

 

[Romana]

Cue the new right-wing outrage.

Oh, it's already started. I saw it yesterday. Photos of a plane to of refugees and "would you want these people in your town?" or words to that effect.

 

[Ryanna Enfield]

Yes. The more diverse, the better. White people asking that question are "the people" I don't want in my town.

 

[Khamon]

Send them to Selma. We have plenty of space and opportunity. They can come here.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I'll grant them this much, they know the west loves soundbites and hates nuance, so they make a statement they know will be truncated to something that 'sounds good' but the full statement was blatantly ominous in the degree to which is suggested the -exact- opposite.


(bolding mine)

I've read elsewhere that 'study' means 'religious studies only', not other general academic areas. Which probably means it's going to end up like a special 'extra hour a day of being lectured about prayer' and re-affirming the regressively limited roles and obligations of women in Islam.

And 'work'? Sure, in the home, maybe in sweatshops, possibly retail in places that -only- serve women. Supervisory/management position in a place where men work? Absolutely not. Some place working along side men, or serving male customers, certainly not. In the probably unlikely cases where there is actual compensation, I'm sure we can presume it absolutely will not even come close to approximating a living wage, and be paid only to her father or husband.

So yeah, they say "respect women's rights" and I hear "to be treated as a subservient lessor species, and still at risk of being put down if a man feels like it, so long as he does so in accordance with Islamic Law"

We'll just have to see how things turn out.

However, I think we must be careful not to impose our own particular Western understanding of what I think are considerably more complex political, cultural and social dynamics than we really understand.

While a lot of more conservative Afghan men, particularly up in the hills, would probably agree with the proposition that it's OK to beat your wife, daughter or sister if she steps too far out of line, a lot wouldn't, and neither would a lot of Afghan women, of course -- while the grandfathers and elders exercise great authority in the villages, tribes and clans, so too do the grandmothers, many of whom were doubtless influential in persuading their husbands and sons that their granddaughters should have the opportunities they wish they'd had for themselves.

And even the most conservative Afghan men, I think, would see this is family and clan business, and if it's OK with her family and elders that a girl attends school or university, and takes up a career in the city, then that's it, and neither the Taliban nor anyone else should try to interfere, and certainly no one other than her husband or a male relative should under any circumstances try to lay violent hands on one of their sisters and daughters, because that's a real insult to family honour, which will one day be avenged. They're big on blood feuds and vendettas in some parts of the country, or so I am told.

That, as I understand it, was one of the main reasons the Taliban became so unpopular 20 years ago and why the Americans were, comparatively, so welcome.

Not much we can do about it, I guess, other than to try to help refugees and asylum seekers when we can.