John Carmack is apparently grumpy about the state of the metaverse

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Last year, former Oculus CTO (and current company advisor) John Carmack threw down the gauntlet for Meta's near-term metaverse plans. By the 2022 Meta Connect conference, Carmack said last October, he hoped he'd be in his headset, "walking around the [virtual] halls or walking around the stage as my avatar in front of thousands of people getting the feed across multiple platforms."

Carmack's vision didn't come to pass Tuesday, as a jerky and awkward Carmack avatar gave one of his signature, hour-long unscripted talks amid a deserted VR space, broadcast out as plain old 2D video on Facebook.
 

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Carmack also seemed skeptical that the $1,499, feature-laden Quest Pro was the right product for Meta to be focusing on at this time. "I've always been clear that I'm all about the cost-effective mass-market headsets being the most important thing for us and for the adoption of VR," Carmack said. "And Quest Pro is definitely not that..."

Carmack also cautioned that developing for the Quest Pro and then "crunching it down" for Quest 2 users could lead to some "tragically bad decisions" if you're not testing on the cheaper headset as well. "The low-end system is going to be where all your real customers are," he warned.
He ain't lying; but I hope that Facebook does not take his advice. Because Facebook is sliding HARD right now and I want that to continue, and I definitely don't want their plans to own the backend of "the meteverse" to succeed in any case, because that will guarantee that it would never be more than a personal-info data-mine.
 

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I have seen no evidence that Facebook's virtual world introduces anything new or worthwhile. All we see of it is avatars that look like something from the '90s, empty and boring backdrops, and nobody actually doing anything.
 
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I have seen no evidence that Facebook's virtual world introduces anything new or worthwhile. All we see of it is avatars that look like something from the '90s, empty and boring backdrops, and nobody actually doing anything.
But but, they'll soon be jumping and kicking!

 
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But do ferrets get legs?

Asking for a friend.
 

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I might be breaking a bit of a taboo here; but sometimes I wonder if people, outside of a small very niche group, actually even want something like a metaverse. I see companies hyping the idea to hell and back, and yeah there's a few fans who really like the idea, but I have yet to see any kind of broad public enthusiasm for this kind of thing, or even like...VR generally. Facebook itself has had to basically force its own employees to use and pretend to be excited about its own metaverse platform. It feels like it's not something that the general public wants or cares about.
 
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I might be breaking a bit of a taboo here; but sometimes I wonder if people, outside of a small very niche group, actually even want something like a metaverse. I see companies hyping the idea to hell and back, and yeah there's a few fans who really like the idea, but I have yet to see any kind of broad public enthusiasm for this kind of thing, or even like...VR generally. Facebook itself has had to basically force its own employees to use and pretend to be excited about its own metaverse platform. It feels like it's not something that the general public wants or cares about.
It's like the old joke about fusion power. It's always 30 years in the future.

With VR, there's just a limited use case for it, and the fact that a strong ecosystem has already developed for the existing non-VR environment.
 

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I might be breaking a bit of a taboo here; but sometimes I wonder if people, outside of a small very niche group, actually even want something like a metaverse.

  1. What problem is this trying to solve?
  2. Is the solution actually easier/more covenient [sic]?
  3. Is this technology completely made up (5 years away!)?
There is no answer to 1) and if you have to strap yourself into a nausea inducing visor, the answer to 2) is obvious. Might be fun for a bit, but certainly isn't convenient and useful. God knows why it's preferable to a video conference call if necessary.
 

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I might be breaking a bit of a taboo here; but sometimes I wonder if people, outside of a small very niche group, actually even want something like a metaverse.
I do, but for socializing, not for business.

The Metaverse, as a concept, is pre-web. Snow Crash was written by a man who had never used the web, whose experience of "online" was Compuserve and Delphi, where you were logged in to one place at a time, over one connection, and interacting with one application. So standing there in virtual reality and being in one place and doing one thing and interacting with one entity at a time was natural.

Personal computers, too, were single tasking. Apple had just recently introduced Multifinder but it was not really like a real multitasking desktop. Windows 3 had just come out and good Windows multitasking meant OS.2 or NT and they were really niche applications. Windows 3.11 would come out in 1993 and it would suck less, but it was still laggy. The only good multitasking desktop that had been out for any length of time was the Amiga and Amiga users were struggling to express how much a difference this made.

Snow Crash came out in 1992, so it was written in 1990 and 1991. Right before the web and a few years before good multitasking desktops and being able to bash browser windows around like sheets of paper.

But over the next decade, everything changed. By 2002 Windows XP had been out for a year, the first versions of OS X were available, and there were several good web browsers and the web was exploding.

Now when you're working, not playing, working online you're not stuck in one place the way VR forces you to be. You're bringing together information from multiple applications and websites, taking pictures on your phone and just expectingthem to be in ~/Dropbox/Camera Uploads/ or wherever equivalent location your cloud service of choice puts them on your computer. It all just works.

You're everywhere.

The Metaverse doesn't let you do that. VR is about the opposite of being everywhere, it's about being in a place. In Science Fiction the only effective MODERN metaverses work hand in hand with a posthuman gestalt where you literally copy your uploaded self and send multiple of yourself off to do different things and merge yourself afterwards, like in Linda Nagata's Vast and Michael Swanwick's Stations of the Tide.

The single threaded real world metaverse is mundane, boring, a decades old science fictional staple of holodecks and videogames. And people want it, yes, but not as a place to work. Selling it as the office of the future is so 1992 it's leaking Wayne's World all over the carpet.
 
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....just like the happy crowd in the background...