Coronavirus Updates

[Beebo Brink]

New developments suggest coronavirus incubation could be longer than 14 days, as global infections rise

 

[Archer]

This thread shows what a well functioning federal government should be doing. This scares me more than anything I've read so far. That plus the fact that there are already probably thousands of cases in the US that we aren't hearing about yet.

 

[Sid]

World is approaching coronavirus tipping point, say experts

78,000 cases confirmed, as Italy and Iran scramble to contain major outbreaks

www.theguardian.com

While the number of patients worldwide is increasing, some virus clusters have shown no obvious link to China, leaving experts struggling to determine where they started.

In Italy it is not possible to link back the death people to contacts with Chinese sources.
So my guess is that the virus is on the loose in Europe.
If Covid-19 is at unexpected places like in Northern Italy, it will most likely be so far undetected in other European countries as well. And then Carnival, where thousands of people are in short distance of each other for hours, will do the rest the next three days. About a million people close together along the route of the carnival parade tomorrow in Cologne alone (partly tourists coming from all over Europe).
Carnival in Venice is canceled today, but heck, thousands of tourists from all over the world are there too at the moment for the event.

Carnival has been the catalyst for a flu epidemic more than once in the past.

So somewhere in the first weeks of March the numbers of sick people will possibly explode all over the carnival areas in Europe and then that area will be to big and the numbers of infected to high to do anything.
The pandemic Covid-19 will happen IMHO.

Alaaf.

 

[Cristiano]

Italy's coronavirus outbreak is the biggest outside Asia

February 23 coronavirus news

www.cnn.com

 

[Beebo Brink]

Given the reports of incubations up to 28 days, the chances of containment seem slim. Covid-19 may not be especially lethal, but more and more it appears to be super contagious. So infect enough people and there will be high mortality numbers, even if the rate of mortality isn't that high.

Both my wife and I fall in a high-risk group (over 60 with compromised respiratory health), so I'm especially wary if/when this begins to spread in the U.S.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Japan’s Coronavirus Cruise Ship Debacle Shows Epidemic Can Be a Gift for Would-Be Dictators

There are many lessons to be learned from the disaster that is the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama. Some are epidemiological, but the most disturbing are political.

www.thedailybeast.com

Both my wife and I fall in a high-risk group (over 60 with compromised respiratory health), so I'm especially wary if/when this begins to spread in the U.S.

Me, too, if and when it takes hold in the UK.

I'm wondering what effect it's likely to have on the US Presidential election campaigns, and particular party conventions and election rallies if the pandemic has taken hold by then.

That would present the famously germaphobic Trump with something of a dilemma -- cancel his rallies, and forego the cheering crowds and the TV coverage, or risk infection, and possibly death, and the deaths, and thus the votes, of some of his most loyal supporters?

I've got a bizarre mental image of Trump, in a full biohazard suit, addressing a hall of cheering fans, all wearing "MAGA" biohazard helmets.

 

[Archer]

I've seen a few people discussing the effect this might have on the primaries and the general election. There is probably not one locality that is prepared for contingency voting if quarantines are put in place.

 

[Sid]

I think, that if the virus gets out of control and spreads rapidly over huge parts of the world, we can do very little.
After a few days, maybe weeks we need business as usual. Just like during a flu epidemic. Who is sick stays at home, who is seriously ill is transferred to a hospital. People from high risk groups stay as much as possible at home. The rest goes back to work.
People have to eat, drink, earn money. Voting for the next president of the USA can be postponed, just like festivals, theater etc.
We can't close up whole countries or continents for months.
It feels as if we rule over the world, but that is only partial true.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

So, what are the odds on Trump cancelling elections?

 

[Beebo Brink]

I'm wondering what effect it's likely to have on the US Presidential election campaigns, and particular party conventions and election rallies if the pandemic has taken hold by then.

Another factor for the election is the degree to which the Trump administration had dismantled our ability to cope with pandemics in this country. This is just the kind of incendiary issue that could blow up the election in unpredictable ways. How much will people care (or even believe) that Trump is to blame for corvid-19 spreading in this country? We've already had Trump's state department allow infected ship passengers fly back to the US, despite the CDC advice to the contrary.

Why Trump’s Coronavirus Response Continues to Cause Concerns

With a pandemic looming, there are signs the Trump administration is improvising much of its strategy as it faces what may be its biggest crisis yet.

nymag.com

 

[Luisa Land]

the closer the virus comes -now it is in northern Italy with drastic restrictions for the people there - the more you feel here
the fear grows...
considering how much passenger traffic there is between the individual countries every day.
When asked whether Switzerland should also close its border with Italy, as Austria did (partially) for its border with Italy last night for fear of the virus, the number was mentioned that 70,000 commuters from northern Italy, close to the border, now commute to southern Switzerland to work..
(and this is only a fraction of the daily passenger traffic between European countries)

The German Minister of Health made a statement to the press today about the situation ("The virus has arrived in Europe", "We must expect that it will also come to Germany", "But we are well prepared") (What else could he say?)
There are many reader comments on this in the various media. The tenor of many comments is: The minister produces only empty words. We want to be protected. How? is usually not mentioned. Sometimes it is called: closing borders.
I think these expectations of these people are unrealistic. I hope that we will not see such scenes as in Ukraine.

But for sure we might see more and more empty supermarket shelves in the near future.

In the Uk they are apparently already a little bit further

How Britain became a nation of stockpilers: 'It just feels like something is going to give'

First there were Brexit hoarders, now it’s coronavirus preppers. Sirin Kale talks to some of them – and to the emergency food supplier who is enjoying a boom time

www.theguardian.com

n

 

[Casey Pelous]

A bit of perspective that seems completely lacking in all the press coverage of this virus: It is February. So far, in the 2019-2020 flu season, 16,000 people have died of flu in the US, including about 100 kids. Not Wuhan Super-scary Coronavirus -- regular old "get a shot for it at Walgreen's" flu. 280,000 hospitalized. While February is typically the peak, we still have March to go.

And this year's flu vaccine is one of the better ones, it seems.

Nobody knows the mortality and morbidity rates of this covid-9 thing, because all the China numbers are, predictably, screwy. Aside from the multi-dimensional chess game that is Chinese politics snarling the information, there's the logistics of figuring out the all-important "percent of what?" Do we only count confirmed, lab tested cases? Cases we kinda think look a lot like they're coronavirus? Etc. Basically, we don't know the numerator or the denominator. (We can be pretty sure the overall picture is worse or (unlikely) better than the Chinese are telling us, but how much worse or better is anyone's guess.)

What I'm saying is, yes, this covid-9 looks rather nasty, but we're already dealing with a rather nasty pandemic; one that just happens to come every year, so nobody's freaking out about that, and there's probably no reason to freak out about this virus. Reasonable precautions, definitely. But I'm not convinced we have the facts to justify implementing border closures, mass quarantines, etc. -- and I rather dread what our current ruling junta would do with such powers in hand. I'm pretty sure, "Give them up as soon as possible" isn't on the list.

Of course, in a week, this could become clickbait: Woman's Last Words Show She Was Idiot.

 

[Sid]

I clicked agree for all you wrote, except for the last sentence of course.

 

[danielravennest]

So, what are the odds on Trump cancelling elections?

He doesn't control them. They are run at state and local levels. Also, the date of elections is set by law.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

He doesn't control them. They are run at state and local levels. Also, the date of elections is set by law.

Yup - even if primaries are postponed [though that's state laws], the general is constitutionally defined.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

What about in an emergency that requires prohibiting public gatherings etc?

 

[Eunoli]

This is rather useful: John's Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases

 

[Archer]

On the subject of politicization of the response here in the US, we have this:

 

[Luisa Land]

It's unbelievable.
"Very much under control" ??
is this really from Trump?
It sounds like a parody of Trump's reaction to the virus
Does he think the majority of US citizens are stupid enough to believe that.
Or is he even right about that assessment?

 

[Luisa Land]

A bit of perspective that seems completely lacking in all the press coverage of this virus: It is February. So far, in the 2019-2020 flu season, 16,000 people have died of flu in the US, including about 100 kids. Not Wuhan Super-scary Coronavirus -- regular old "get a shot for it at Walgreen's" flu. 280,000 hospitalized. While February is typically the peak, we still have March to go.

And this year's flu vaccine is one of the better ones, it seems.

Nobody knows the mortality and morbidity rates of this covid-9 thing, because all the China numbers are, predictably, screwy. Aside from the multi-dimensional chess game that is Chinese politics snarling the information, there's the logistics of figuring out the all-important "percent of what?" Do we only count confirmed, lab tested cases? Cases we kinda think look a lot like they're coronavirus? Etc. Basically, we don't know the numerator or the denominator. (We can be pretty sure the overall picture is worse or (unlikely) better than the Chinese are telling us, but how much worse or better is anyone's guess.)

What I'm saying is, yes, this covid-9 looks rather nasty, but we're already dealing with a rather nasty pandemic; one that just happens to come every year, so nobody's freaking out about that, and there's probably no reason to freak out about this virus. Reasonable precautions, definitely. But I'm not convinced we have the facts to justify implementing border closures, mass quarantines, etc. -- and I rather dread what our current ruling junta would do with such powers in hand. I'm pretty sure, "Give them up as soon as possible" isn't on the list.

Of course, in a week, this could become clickbait: Woman's Last Words Show She Was Idiot.

First:
there is a flu vaccination
but it is correct, nevertheless there are a few hundred deaths every year.
the flu is endemic, as far as I understand we cant do much about it anymore

But we dont need additionaly a new virus.
coronavirus can still be stopped from going around the world every year, like the flu. It's worth some effort. There is also a higher danger for life withcoronavirus than with the flu.

(these remarks or similiar I found in a german paper, but forgot where)