Brexit.

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Are you a German living in the UK, and do you own a driving license issued before 1999 (this license includes all trucks up to 7.5 tons)? Then the Department of Transport wants to make you an offer. And it does not care if you never worked in that area before.


 
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Innula Zenovka

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Some crises come with plenty of advance warning.

More than three months before brawls broke out on Britain’s petrol station forecourts this week and pictures of empty supermarket shelves filled the newspaper front pages, industry chiefs met government ministers to warn of a supply-chain crisis.

The executives came to the June meeting armed with a list of potential fixes: temporary visas to recruit overseas HGV drivers; action to clear the Covid-19 driving test backlog; extended driver hours; and a campaign by the government to urge retired British HGV-licence holders to get back behind the wheel.

But junior transport minister Lady Charlotte Vere was reluctant to act, according to two people present at the meeting. Instead she told the executives that there was “a perception that the industry is crying wolf” and that the government did not want to “create panic”.

The department denied at the time it was being complacent, but it was not until Monday - some 73 days after that June 16 meeting — that ministers finally agreed to all of the industry’s requests. Some 10,500 temporary visas have been issued to drivers and poultry workers, and Vere herself has signed a letter sent to a million HGV drivers this week begging them to get back on the road.
Logistics experts say complacency in Whitehall among both politicians and officials is built around a basic failure to understand how ingrained the problems are, and how long it will take to fix them.
Also

 
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Stora

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off topic but still........

A tanker driver has told how he was tailed by about 20 drivers who were dismayed to discover he was not transporting petrol.

Johnny Anderson, who drives for Weaver Haulage, was transporting 44 tonnes of mortar from Bilston, Wolverhampton, to a building site in Northamptonshire.
When he reached his destination, he saw a line of traffic backed up behind him.
"The man at the front... actually said 'You could have stopped and told us you weren't a petrol tanker," he said.
Fuel supplies: Mortar tanker tailed by drivers looking for petrol
 

Sid

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Because of the shift to online purchases, more and more drivers are required to deliver the parcels and goods to our doorsteps. The just in time deliveries to supermarkets has increased the demand as well. Low wages and long working hours don't make being a driver exactly a popular profession. Economy is booming at the moment in NL, so drivers could (soon) find better paying jobs. But so far no shortages of supplies in supermarkets and gas stations. And thankfully no signals that it will happen any time soon.

What is way more troublesome is our housing market. Prices are really trough the roof in the NL and if you don't offer at least more than 10% above the already ridiculous asking prices, you have 0% chance to become the next owner. We have a huge shortage. It will take years and years to fill the gap between demand and supply because there are more and more 1 person households and the elderly stay longer independent in their own homes then in the past.

And very worrisome are the energy prices. One liter gas is now for the first time over the € 2.00 at the stations.
Experts expect that heating and electricity will be up in NL for about 20-30% upcoming winter. Due to fast growing demand and low quantities in stock due to corona.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Because of the shift to only purchases, more and more drivers are required to deliver the parcels and goods to our doorsteps. The just in time deliveries to supermarkets has increased the demand as well. Low wages and long working hours don't make being a driver exactly a popular profession. Economy is booming at the moment in NL, so drivers could (soon) find better paying jobs. But so far no shortages of supplies in supermarkets and gas stations. And thankfully no signals that it will happen any time soon.

What is way more troublesome is our housing market. Prices are really trough the roof in the NL and if you don't offer at least more than 10% above the asking price you have 0% chance to be the next owner. We have a huge shortage. It will take years and years to fill the gap between demand and supply because there are more and more 1 person households and the elderly stay longer independent in their own homes then in the past.

And very worry some is the climbing of energy prices. One liter gas is now for the first time over the € 2.00 at the stations. Experts expect that heating and electricity will be up in NL for about 20-30% upcoming winter. Due to fast growing demand and low quantities in stock due to corona.
I've seen several comments in the British press recently comparing the situation now with the 1970s, the world economy had to recalibrate because of spiralling oil prices, and we in the UK had industrial unrest and high inflation, leading to both the Miners' Strike and the Three Day Week and, later, to the "Winter of Discontent". That was when we had just joined the EU, of course, and I remember voting "Yes" in the first referendum.

I've seen, too, comments in the press to suggest that Johnson sees himself as a second Thatcher, presiding over a similar transformation of a malfunctioning British economy, which seems somehow reminiscent of Marx's comments about history repeating itself, the first time as tragedy and the second as farce.

While I doubt history will be so obliging as to provide a perfect coda to the era of Thatcherism in British politics, it will be entertaining to watch Boris Johnson thrust into the role of Jim Callaghan as he faces his own "Winter of Discontent," particularly since the Tories have spent the last 40-odd years wildly over-exaggerating the disruption it caused (the sombre, and frequently heard, complaint that "bodies went unburied and rubbish piled up in the streets" meant, in reality, that the municipal workers in Liverpool, including the grave diggers and refuse collectors, went on strike for higher wages, despite the government's wage freeze, for some weeks, a dispute which the Tory press obviously exploited to its limit).

I remember, too, what my parents told me about England in the 1920s and 30s, with the General Strike, the Great Depression and the Jarrow Hunger Marches -- if you had a decent job, at least according to my father, it wasn't too bad. It was, before the introduction of the NHS and the Welfare State, losing it that was the great worry.

Similarly, too, I don't remember the 70s as being too bad, really, but being 50 years younger probably had something to do with it.
 
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Luisa Land

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I'm feelin' okay this mornin'
And you know
We're on a road to paradise
Here we go, here we go
We're on a ride to nowhere
Come on inside
Takin' that ride to nowhere
We'll take that ride

Just picked up somewhere this hint: the song to sing at the Brexit:
"we are on the road to nowhere"

sure, it's very polemical, steered by some "schadenfreude" and the Brexit journey will certainly lead somewhere, but maybe not to the promised "sunny uplands"
 

Innula Zenovka

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I'm feelin' okay this mornin'
And you know
We're on a road to paradise
Here we go, here we go
We're on a ride to nowhere
Come on inside
Takin' that ride to nowhere
We'll take that ride

Just picked up somewhere this hint: the song to sing at the Brexit:
"we are on the road to nowhere"

sure, it's very polemical, steered by some "schadenfreude" and the Brexit journey will certainly lead somewhere, but maybe not to the promised "sunny uplands"
 

Kamilah Hauptmann

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Bartholomew Gallacher

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What many people do not have on the radar is that in many countries there is a very special contributor to the druck driver shortage: just in time production and outsourcing of warehouse storage buildings.

E.G. in Germany the warehouses have been outsourced due to high land prices to countries where land is cheap in the East and elsewhere. So in many lorry companies around 70% of the runs are about running this scheme to save expenses.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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If I understand the Brexiteers correctly, part of the concept is that the jobs in the UK that were previously filled by foreigners will now be largely filled by Britons.
It's more complex than that, I think.

Freedom of Movement in the EU has allowed employers to recruit from agencies across Europe. This has many benefits, including the ability to fill seasonal and temporary vacancies far more readily than we're now able to do.

However, it carries with it several disadvantages, too.

One is that it artificially depresses wages, because there are some jobs which the employer is almost always going to find it cheaper to use agency workers from low-wage economies to fill vacancies than it is to improve pay and conditions to fill them locally.

To a certain type of younger Thatcherite, that's artificially depressing the market, so now it's possible, we can improve wages and conditions by forcing the employer to improve them or go out of business.

Same goes for agriculture -- can't farm the land profitably unless we subsidise you, and even then you can't harvest the food or slaughter and butcher the livestock because you offer such bad pay and conditions? OK, wholesalers will have to look elsewhere, and pay more if necessary, and you'll have find something else to do with the land we are prepared to subsidise, often including rewilding it.

As background, this is a news item from 2017:


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I'm originally from Nottingham, so I know those areas, and the other traditionally Labour "Red Wall" constituencies in the north Midlands that were strongly pro-Brexit and voted Tory for the first time in 2019.

That's how they see the EU and Freedom of Movement -- not only does it allow a situation in which agencies like that can operate but that it also allows a situation in which the major, and often only, employer (in this case, Sports Direct, a very major and controversial retailer) is one where they can fill vacancies with slave labour, if necessary.

A generation ago, Margaret Thatcher devastated these old industrial areas, and some look as if they'll never make a full recovery while Sports Direct or Amazon can recruit temporary workers from low-wage EU counties.

People like Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary whose interview I keep mentioning, say well, in that case, turn off the supply of agency workers and we'll see what happens when they have to do more to attract staff locally, and keep them longer, and people like what they hear.

Let's see what happens. They did it a generation ago when they removed subsidies on failing industries in these areas, and denationalised, and ultimately closed the mines and many steelworks, and now they're doing it again by removing another distortion from the market.

ETA: I would far rather have fixed the problem by remaining in the EU and fixing it with UK legislation and enforcement of minimum employment standards and rates of pay, combined with encouraging trades union membership, but I'm a socialist, so obviously the Tories and I see things a bit differently. We've now left the EU and they're doing it their way. I hope it works.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Well I know enough Brits personally who were quite sceptical in the end about the influx of Polish and Romanian people.
 

Innula Zenovka

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Well I know enough Brits personally who were quite sceptical in the end about the influx of Polish and Romanian people.
So do I, and now we're doing things their way. So let's see how it works out.

But the idea isn't, I think, so much "foreigners are taking our jobs" as "Because some foreigners are prepared to do them, these are the only jobs on offer around here."
 

Innula Zenovka

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“What we can’t do … in all these sectors, is simply go back to the tired, failed old model, reach for the lever called uncontrolled immigration, get people in at low wages. And yes, there will be a period of adjustment, but that is, I think, what we need to see in this country.”

Asked whether labour shortages and the associated disruption they caused were an inevitable part of his Brexit policy, Johnson did not disagree.

He said: “When people voted for change in 2016 and when people voted for change in 2019, they voted for the end of a broken model of the UK economy that relied on low wages and low skill, and chronic low productivity. And we’re moving away from that.”
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Freedom of movement has two aspects: the labour market and the product selling market.

Thanks to freedom of movement many employeers want to go there where they get the highest salary possible for their work, or just overall start working in highly paid jobs. On the other hand the selling market has often price levels which contradict the labour market.

So when many native employeers just refuse to work in low paid (service) jobs, there are two options: increase the salaries, or get somebody else to do it. This was in former times then in the UK Polish and Romanian People, and many other. It was a good solution for both sides: for the British economy the low prices on the selling market could be kept, while the foreign workers often transfered lots of their money back into their homelands. Even if British payment was bad, they often make still several times more there than in average a worker in their countries can make in a year. Which means it can sustain a family, makes it even possible to get an own home maybe and other stuff. Same mechanism goes for foreign workers in Arabian countries.

Now that the influx is gone, it's either re-enabling that influx again or increasing the salaries. If it should end at increasing the salaries, also sales prices will have to rise with for sure some interesting effects in the long run.
 

Innula Zenovka

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If it should end at increasing the salaries, also sales prices will have to rise with for sure some interesting effects in the long run.
Businesses charge what customers are prepared to pay.

If Sports Direct can't make a profit importing cheap clothes from sweatshops on the other side of the worlds and then paying people to package and dispatch them from a warehouse in Derbyshire, despite having the taxpayer subsidise their wages bill by paying Universal Credit and other earnings-related benefits to their low-paid workers, without being able to draw on a pool of casual agency workers from Poland and Romania, they'll just have to change their business model so they can recruit the staff they need locally.