Brexit.

[Innula Zenovka]

This could turn out to be quite interesting.

EU to seek more time to ratify Brexit trade deal amid tensions with UK

Chief negotiator, David Frost, claims bloc struggling to get used to ‘independent actor in its neighbourhood’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Sid]

The EU has 27 member states, each single one needs to ratify the agreement, I guess.
And if that takes more time, what can there be done?

If the UK grants no more time, the whole deal will be canceled I guess.
If that is what the Uk government is after........
Let's hope not.
It is only a technical thing in the end, as long as no country says njet to the agreement.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The EU has 27 member states, each single one needs to ratify the agreement, I guess.
And if that takes more time, what can there be done?

If the UK grants no more time, the whole deal will be canceled I guess.
If that is what the Uk government is after........
Let's hope not.
It is only a technical thing in the end.

No, it's not a problem for the UK, at all, that it needs to be extended -- as far as we're concerned we've got a deal with the EU, for better or worse, and both sides have to live with it.

To the extent that it is a problem, it's a problem for the Commission if they can't get it ratified -- I have no idea what happens next.

Not our circus, not our monkeys, as I believe they say in Poland.

 

[Sid]

I somehow have the feeling it all will end in a (long) diplomatic wintertime between the UK and the EU pretty soon.
Not because of the ratification delay, but because both sides aren't really happy with the rushed trough agreement.
Especially the Northern Ireland situation will turn out not to be workable IMHO.

 

[Khamon]

It’ll be workable when NI leaves the UK and unites with the Republic.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I somehow have the feeling it all will end in a (long) diplomatic wintertime between the UK and the EU pretty soon.
Not because of the ratification delay, but because both sides aren't really happy with the rushed trough agreement.
Especially the Northern Ireland situation will turn out not to be workable IMHO.

They'll find a way, I'm sure, to make it work that everyone can live with, at least, even if no one is particularly happy with it.

However, I'm wondering what happens if any of the EU national parliaments refuse to approve the deal -- and I can certainly imagine either Viktor Orbán or Mateusz Morawiecki blocking it, partly to hold it as ransom to their demands that the EU ignore what's going on in their countries and partly just to be jerks.

 

[Sid]

It’ll be workable when NI leaves the UK and unites with the Republic.

That would be the best solution.
But it will not happen any time soon I guess.

 

[Sid]

They'll find a way, I'm sure, to make it work that everyone can live with, at least, even if no one is particularly happy with it.

However, I'm wondering what happens if any of the EU national parliaments refuse to approve the deal -- and I can certainly imagine either Viktor Orbán or Mateusz Morawiecki blocking it, partly to hold it as ransom to their demands that the EU ignore what's going on in their countries and partly just to be jerks.

The EU is pretty good at getting all the members on the same line in the end.
There is some time, sometimes a bit of silent diplomacy, creative thinking and an extra summit needed.
The EU has build up tons of experience during the period that the UK was part of the EU.

But ultimately I guess there would be a no deal situation in the end or dealings could continue on the base of a not totally ratified agreement.
That would not be a first in the world.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Sid]

What are the options?
A) Totally no border control between the UK and NI. That will be very problematic for the EU, because it would give the UK the chance to export every thing they want to the EU without bothering about the Christmas eve agreement at all. It would become the largest and also tolerated smuggler route in the world.

B) Border control in the Irish sea or somewhere between the GB an NI, will bring a border in the middle of the kingdom. Not workable for the UK I expect.

C) Border control between Ireland and NI, that could end up pretty nasty because of the recent past and is in conflict with the EU's internal market principles.

So yeah, I totally see a lot of troubles ahead.
My estimate is that article 16 will be lifted within two years by one or both sides.
And this time not by accident but because the agreement is unworkable.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

What are the options?
A) Totally no border control between the UK and NI. That will be very problematic for the EU, because it would give the UK the chance to export every thing they want to the EU without bothering about the Christmas eve agreement at all. It would become the largest and also tolerated smuggler route in the world.

B) Border control in the Irish sea or somewhere between the GB an NI, will bring a border in the middle of the kingdom. Not workable for the UK I expect.

C) Border control between Ireland and NI, that could end up pretty nasty because of the recent past and is in conflict with the EU's internal market principles.

So yeah, I totally see a lot of troubles ahead.
My estimate is that article 16 will be lifted within two years by one or both sides.
And this time not by accident but because the agreement is unworkable.

C is out of the question -- it's contrary to the Good Friday Agreement, which is a binding treaty between the UK and the RoI, and neither the UK nor the RoI could accept the restoration of hard border between the North and South (neither would the USA, and neither would the Republican paramilitaries, whom no one wants to see back in business).

B is the only possible solution, though since it's anathema to the DUP and some Tory jihadis, it'll take time to implement.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

What are the options?

D) Stay in the common market. Do whatever it takes to get the EU to agree to let the UK do that, even if it means Boris Johnson has to run the Channel Tunnel naked while chanting "I'm a little teapot".

 

[Sid]

I don't think that the EU is ready to take the UK back any time soon, after all the hassle and burden of the last years.
And far worse than the iconic blue passport thingy is, that new countries that want to enter the EU have to accept that their currency becomes the Euro.
I think that at least 3/4 of the Britons would rather die on the spot than give up their pound notes.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

It's switch to the Euro or break the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[Luisa Land]

I don't think that the EU is ready to take the UK back any time soon, after all the hassle and burden of the last years.
And far worse than the iconic blue passport thingy is, that new countries that want to enter the EU have to accept that their currency becomes the Euro.
I think that at least 3/4 of the Britons would rather die on the spot than give up their pound notes.

Yes, I agree. The issue of the uk has moved pretty far down the agenda for the EU.
The EU has a number of problems of its own, not least of course the Corona pandemic. And after the experiences the EU has had with the UK in recent years in the context of the Brexit "negotiations", no one in the EU wants to sacrifice energy and time for comprehensive new agreements with the UK. At least not until new political forces, which are trusted to be more reliable, determine political events in the UK and especially in England.
Moreover, it is currently impossible to foresee how the situation will develop. Factors such as economic, social and political consequences of Brexit for the UK and to a lesser extent for the EU. Possible successes of the independence movement in Scotland, etc. All these factors will have a major influence, especially on what happens in the UK.
I think it will take a while before a new serious attempt is made to put the EU-UK relationship on a more stable footing. I expect that only meagre provisional solutions are possible at present.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

It's switch to the Euro or break the Good Friday Agreement.

For better or worse, Brexit has happened.

I wish it hadn't, but it has and we're living in that new reality.

The terms of the withdrawal agreement are what they are, and can't be changed in any significant way for the next five years.

Labour have made it clear that it won't make rejoining the EU part of its manifesto and, as Sid has suggested, the EU wouldn't welcome an application for readmission -- it's not going to happen in the next ten or fifteen years, at least.

In the meantime, life has to go on, and everyone has to adjust to the new reality, just as we're adjusting to the world of Covid-19 and solve problems as best we can -- it's no longer London vs Brussels, but the EU and Britain trying to resolve, or not, particular issues of mutual concern that are causing problems to both EU and British businesses and citizens.

ETA: Meanwhile

Half of UK exporters to EU are having Brexit difficulties, survey finds

Swift action by both UK government and Brussels urged to deal with major problems

www.theguardian.com

Presumably this causes difficulty and inconvenience for their EU customers, who can certainly find alternative suppliers in most cases, but who presumably don't want to have to.

 

[Khamon]

The UK's talk and agreement, or lack thereof, includes a blatent Fuck You Ireland and Northern Ireland. But I suppose both are used to that kind of treatment by now. They've always been pretty good about just living with it because that's simply how it is.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The UK's talk and agreement, or lack thereof, includes a blatent Fuck You Ireland and Northern Ireland. But I suppose both are used to that kind of treatment by now. They've always been pretty good about just living with it because that's simply how it is.

It's not just one-sided, though -- it was, after all, the EU, not the UK, who briefly threatened, to the dismay of both the RoI and the UK, to use Article 16 of the Agreement to close the border a fortnight ago , a proposal I'd have expected to hear from Marc Francois or Jacob Rees-Mogg rather than Ursula von der Leyen.

Meanwhile, customs checks on goods entering NI from England are causing tensions with the Loyalists, who have been threatening port staff over the delays.

If it were possible under the Good Friday Agreement, the British government would be delighted, I'm certain, to have a united Ireland despite the Unionist objections, except that I doubt the RoI would be too pleased about having several hundred thousand very unhappy Ulster Protestants become their problem, not London's.

If there were any sort of simple solution to partition (a huge historical mistake) we'd have seen it by now, but there isn't, and we're still all living with the consequences.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Sid]

There is very little reason for EU businesses to leave the EU share trading in London now that EU laws no longer apply to the UK.
So the shift to an EU stock market makes sense to me.
And of course The Netherlands is an excellent choice.