Automation in the Workplace

[danielravennest]

Casting is all well and good (good enough for The Iron Bridge) but many applications require forming (forging, rolling) and/or machining. To melt cast iron or steel you obviously have to have a crucible which can withstand that heat. Aluminium alloys would be easier to deal with but you still need to know what particular alloy it is.

I'm quite aware that you need other processes than casting. That's why my reference starter set includes a bridge mill, horizontal lathe, and hydraulic press. I've got reference sources on making a crucible from scratch, but they are not very expensive to buy. I used to do blacksmithing as part of my medieval re-enactment hobby. Reaching the melting point of steel isn't that hard, although aluminum is definitely easier. People have made a basic lathe starting from scrap aluminum melted in a furnace made from a 5 gallon steel bucket. But I expect most people won't have to go that primitive.

The equipment list for my prototype starter set runs about $30,000. Assuming a group of people pool their resources, that should be affordable. It includes things like a small industrial grade non-computerized lathe, which can be bought used for ~$3,000. The group of people either need to have, or learn, some basic skills among themselves - carpentry, welding, electrical wiring, etc. Some of the items for the starter workshop, like workbenches, would be self-built. Ideally, the starter-shop would be in operation *before* the unemployment problem becomes critical. A community workshop where people can get stuff done which they can't with their own tools has value on it's own. Then if the need arises, you can convert to self-expansion to meet the needs of people who are under- or un-employed,

 

[Innula Zenovka]

An interesting article from the FT, via Medium, summarizing a lecture given recently by Adair Turner (whom I knew at university, as it happens -- very bright guy): Work in the Age of Intelligent Machines – Financial Times – Medium

Turner is a political conservative, at least in British terms, though a sane one. The FT's take-away from the lecture is that:

In the medium term, so long as there is a reasonable prospect of jobs for people who want to work, the crucial policy will be subsidising jobs. It is also vital to fund high-quality public services for all, notably, health, education and transportation. Moreover, as Dean Baker argues, the concentration of incomes from scarcity rents cries out for higher taxation of wealth and top incomes, notably including land and intellectual property. Indeed, intellectual property is almost certainly too highly protected now. There is a case for some protection, but not too much of it. I believe Adam Smith would agree.

( Evernote Link because it's a Members Only article and I don't know what access is like for non members)

ETA: found a link to the text of the lecture plus video: Capitalism in the age of robots: work, income and wealth in the 21st-century

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

A Universal Tax Credit would do this with the least overhead, since most people have to deal with tax returns anyway. Just add a tax credit to the current forms in whatever amount you want to fund a UBI. This is equivalent to sending UBI checks to everyond.

Sorry if someone else already pointed this out, but although it's true that "most people have to deal with tax returns anyway" this still wouldn't cover a huge number of people. Many, many, MANY desperate people don't have any tax payments to refund.

I am very hopeful that 3d printing technology will advance beyond our wildest dreams but still definitely believe that UBI will have to cover a large gap between super convenient replicators and a period where automation will destroy a lot of jobs.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Sorry if someone else already pointed this out, but although it's true that "most people have to deal with tax returns anyway" this still wouldn't cover a huge number of people. Many, many, MANY desperate people don't have any tax payments to refund.

I am very hopeful that 3d printing technology will advance beyond our wildest dreams but still definitely believe that UBI will have to cover a large gap between super convenient replicators and a period where automation will destroy a lot of jobs.

I am guessing you would have more of an uptick in people filling out tax forms if they learned they basically would just sign a piece of paper and get free money.

Another way is expand the web of benefits programs (although this would cost more). For example, make everyone eligible for subsidised housing. Actually, the administration costs may even come down as you would not have to do much work to determine eligibility.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

I am guessing you would have more of an uptick in people filling out tax forms if they learned they basically would just sign a piece of paper and get free money.

That's definitely true, but my point is it can't be a tax credit for people who have no income to pay taxes on. May as well just send a check.

 

[danielravennest]

Sorry if someone else already pointed this out, but although it's true that "most people have to deal with tax returns anyway" this still wouldn't cover a huge number of people. Many, many, MANY desperate people don't have any tax payments to refund.

Tax credits are not the same as tax deductions. The latter can reduce your tax bill to zero, but not further. A credit can result in them paying you, even if you have no tax due.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Tax credits are not the same as tax deductions. The latter can reduce your tax bill to zero, but not further. A credit can result in them paying you, even if you have no tax due.

My mistake. But I'd still strongly prefer it to be independent of tax returns since tax returns are usually annual. It's very advantages to make this a monthly or biweekly thing. This also makes it easiest for the poorest of the poor and least educated.

 

[danielravennest]

My mistake. But I'd still strongly prefer it to be independent of tax returns since tax returns are usually annual. It's very advantages to make this a monthly or biweekly thing. This also makes it easiest for the poorest of the poor and least educated.

You could certainly set it up for direct deposit on a monthly/biweekly basis. 90% of Americans get help doing their taxes anyway, so the poor and uneducated already get help. For the remaining few, since it would be replacing a lot of social programs, the people who used to administer those programs can help do their taxes.

 

[Brenda Archer]

An interesting article from the FT, via Medium, summarizing a lecture given recently by Adair Turner (whom I knew at university, as it happens -- very bright guy): Work in the Age of Intelligent Machines – Financial Times – Medium

Turner is a political conservative, at least in British terms, though a sane one. The FT's take-away from the lecture is that:

( Evernote Link because it's a Members Only article and I don't know what access is like for non members)

ETA: found a link to the text of the lecture plus video: Capitalism in the age of robots: work, income and wealth in the 21st-century

Thank you! I grabbed his paper and it was immensely enlightening. It’s especially spot on as a description of what’s happening in places like the Bay Area. I also like that he mentioned Picketty.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

A look at how AI, at least that of self-driving cars, gets trained -- by Kenyan women, earning $9 a day (not an hour): Why Big Tech pays poor Kenyans to programme self-driving cars

 

[Dillon Levenque]

A look at how AI, at least that of self-driving cars, gets trained -- by Kenyan women, earning $9 a day (not an hour): Why Big Tech pays poor Kenyans to programme self-driving cars

"["Yes, it's cost effective," Janah said. "But one thing that's critical in our line of work is to not pay wages that would distort local labour markets. If we were to pay people substantially more than that, we would throw everything off. That would have a potentially negative impact on the cost of housing, the cost of food in the communities in which our workers thrive." ]"

In other words, "Isn't this great? We keep the cheap labor by paying them a bit more than average, but still low enough so they're dirt poor and desperate!"

 

[Val]

Nothing is going to work unless we rethink the whole base like Jorus says - money. And that idea is going to crash very fast on us as we are reaching a crisis of 'no one will actually think of those awesome robots' because everyone is focused on survival. We are going to reach a point where there is no new resources because there was no people to innovate the gathering, conversion and so on. All the talented people want to pay their rent and have food, they do not have time nor energy to be brilliant. And do we really need to have those silly luxuries? They cost the environment much more than it is worth for us.