Coronavirus Updates

[Essence Lumin]

He has not been outside. While we are having a short cold snap in dc (although still warm for February) it has been pretty warm here all winter.

Do you remember April May June in Married With Children? Bras on Bud make him itch. April hates when they ride up like that.

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

 

[Essence Lumin]

A member of the Unitarian church I attend has a Master's degree in Epidemiology and Public health from Yale. She posted some information about the Coronavirus on Facebook. She asked that her information be copied and pasted rather than linked because

Feel free to copy and paste. I prefer not to change my settings on this for many reasons, including anti-vaxxer attacks I received when posting about measles. The cdc.gov/covid19 link is really important to share so each of us can check it regularly. If I learn local information, I will share as well.

CDC link at end of post.

Alice writes:

Coronavirus:

I have a Master's degree in Epidemiology and Public health from Yale.

So, any questions.. please ask.

Our campus included the WHO research labs for infectious diseases including novel viruses. I understand a lot of the basics of what is going on, what we ought do and not do.

Please do NOT hoard ventilator masks or other supplies that our health care workers and those actually exposed need. Our risk of catastrophic consequences increases substantially if we have people like police, home health workers, public health workers, doctors, janitors unable to access needed protective gear.

Do ignore President. There is a person in California who tested positive with no known links to travel areas, indicating virus may have now spread throughout their community. Contact tracing continues.

Do: Rely on WHO and CDC and go to www.cdc.gov/covid19 and read about what experts say is happening and what we need to do.

Do use sanitizer, wash your hands and do not go out in public f you have symptoms of a cold or flu. Our communities have at risk people whose immune systems do not fight disease as well as healthier, better nourished folks.

Do not panic or spread any posts about this umm.. pandemic that is not the word of CDC or WHO or your medical professionals.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Find links to guidance and information on all topics related to COVID-19, including the COVID-19 vac

www.cdc.gov

 

[Innula Zenovka]

What price will we pay to stop coronavirus? | News | The Times

What price will we pay to stop coronavirus? Chris Smyth , Whitehall Editor Friday February 28 2020, 12.00pm, The Times What would be worse for society: suspending normal life as we know it for months ...

www.evernote.com

What would be worse for society: suspending normal life as we know it for months and suffering the social and economic consequences? Or letting thousands of people — mainly elderly — die from coronavirus?

This is the blunt choice that would face Britain if a pandemic hits. It is still an if, but it is now more likely than not and the probability rises with every day that outbreaks rage out of control in Italy and Iran.

China has made its decision, prioritising control of the virus with draconian measures that at one point led to movement restrictions on half a billion people. Factories were closed, travel was banned and quarantines were enforced with drones. It worked but the world is now counting the economic cost in manufacturing shortages.

As Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, pointed out today, the epidemic in Wuhan peaked with 5 per cent of the population infected. British contingency plans are preparing for a “reasonable worst case” scenario in which 80 per cent of the population is infected.

“In terms of the number of lives lost, there is a massive difference, hundreds of thousands of lives difference, if you can contain it to less than 5 per cent,” Mr Hunt said.

 

[Beebo Brink]

What would be worse for society: suspending normal life as we know it for months and suffering the social and economic consequences? Or letting thousands of people — mainly elderly — die from coronavirus?

Well excuse me for getting in the way of your normal routine.

 

[Beebo Brink]

I'll just leave this here.

WHO raises global risk of coronavirus from 'high' to 'very high'

A Chinese official said some recovered patients had been found to be infectious, suggesting the epidemic may be even harder to eradicate than previously thought.

Lindmeier said the WHO was looking very carefully into reports of some people getting re-infected.

 

[Archer]

There is no reason to think that the US will be spared this virus, and we will be woefully unable to prevent it being a widespread event. China was able to contain it fairly well and quickly because of their ability to enforce draconian measures on their people. The US is not so easy. For good or bad, we tend to fiercely defend our freedom to ignore government "suggestions" and most local officials will be reluctant to enforce what amounts to martial law to MAKE people self quarantine. And being expected to stay at home if you are either exposed or showing early symptoms is a problem for the vast majority of working class and poorer citizens, as far too many would lose their jobs if they don't show up. Paid sick leave is increasingly rare, and almost ALL require some sort of physician's written requirement. So containing it will be an enormous task.

What is also not sinking in is the seriousness of the threat. People keep comparing it to the "normal" flu, but there is nothing normal about this. There is no vaccine, so the entire population is considered at risk. So looking at the available statistics so far, out of a population of 327 million, we can expect, on the low end, about 60% or a little over 190 million cases to develop. Of these 190 million, we can expect 20 - 30% to become critical, which would be around 40 million people requiring intensive hospital care for several weeks. And about a million of those people will die. And like I said, these numbers are just looking at the LOW end of the statistics available from China. Where they acted quickly. And built hospitals in a week to take care of people. We don't do that. For some perspective, currently there are a TOTAL of around one million hospital beds available in the US. Not intensive care. TOTAL HOSPITAL BEDS!

We are not prepared for this.

 

[Ashiri]

China was able to contain it fairly well and quickly because of their ability to enforce draconian measures on their people.

I have a horrible feeling that they only think they've controlled it and as soon as the "all clear" is given, it will flare up.

 

[Archer]

Yes, judging by the growing number of reports of people who have recovered and re-tested positive. No indication if it's remaining virus or new infection though.

 

[danielravennest]

People keep comparing it to the "normal" flu, but there is nothing normal about this. There is no vaccine, so the entire population is considered at risk.

I'm old enough that some of the common vaccines didn't exist when I was a kid, so everyone got chicken pox, measles, etc. The polio vaccine was available, and it got it, but there were plenty of paralyzed people still around from earlier to remind us why vaccines were a good idea. There were no anti-vaxxers. People today have gotten too comfortable because of the lack of epidemics. So one positive from Covid-19, among all the negatives, is to remind people why vaccines are good.

 

[Jopsy Pendragon]

Yeah, that sums up our government response pretty accurately.

 

[Free]

Is he wearing [a] yellow mask on his head?

 

[Kara Spengler]

Do you remember April May June in Married With Children? Bras on Bud make him itch. April hates when they ride up like that.

The name is familiar somehow.

 

[Kara Spengler]

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Well excuse me for getting in the way of your normal routine.

The social consequences, though, do have to be considered when the government is making contingency plans -- I mean, if they close schools for any length of time, that's going to have pretty adverse consequences for the students' education and will also cause big problems for their parents.

What are the children going to do while the schools are closed and their parents aren't in a position to take extended unpaid time off work?

 

[Caliandris]

The social consequences, though, do have to be considered when the government is making contingency plans -- I mean, if they close schools for any length of time, that's going to have pretty adverse consequences for the students' education and will also cause big problems for their parents.

What are the children going to do while the schools are closed and their parents aren't in a position to take extended unpaid time off work?

I keep getting asked in questionnaires this week about whether I would support the government closing schools, sporting events and other gatherings for a period of two months. Whether this is actually what the UK government is considering I don't know, but there would have to be some provision made for children in families where the parent or parents are working. But what and how, I don't know, but there are laws about not leaving smaller children alone if they are unsafe.

What would most worry me about the US is that there is a considerable disincentive to identifying yourself to the authorities if you have to pay $3000 for a test and goodness knows how much for hospital stay etc. That is likely to keep people who ought to be in hospital in the community, and I don't see how that can be avoided, unless the government steps in to make special arrangements. Here in the UK the problem will be the system's ability to cope with the influx of patients needing treatment, as we run our hospitals at more than 100% occupancy in normal times, but I see they have arranged to bring the army in to assist the NHS if necessary.

 

[Beebo Brink]

The social consequences, though, do have to be considered when the government is making contingency plans...

I was being deliberately snarky because I'm one those "elderly" who some might consider collateral damage, as if there's some neat divide between Everyone and the Elderly. What are the children going to do if they bring home the flu and they're living with their grandparents, as many children do these days? What are we to do when at least some of the teachers and the principal, not to mention the school bus driver, are over 60 or have diabetes or a heart condition, as many do?

What do we do when millions of adult middle-aged people don't die, but are so seriously ill that they need hospitalization but there's no room left for them? That is as disruptive, if not more so, than the death of a smaller number of people who are conveniently retired and perhaps not so immediately integral to our society, or least our financial infrastructure.

I object to the framing of this pandemic as an either/or situation where everyone has the option of a normal life, if they just quietly agree to sacrifice a few old people. It's not that simple and easy, even if everyone agreed it was necessary. Even if no one dies, a pandemic can be devastating just by debilitating a large portion of the able-boded population. And there's always that remote risk that we'll mirror the 1918 pandemic, where the 1st wave wasn't so bad, but the 2nd wave was like a killing machine.

I would argue that there is no way to bargain for a "normal life" under these circumstances. That's wishful thinking.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I was being deliberately snarky because I'm one those "elderly" who some might consider collateral damage, as if there's some neat divide between Everyone and the Elderly. What are the children going to do if they bring home the flu and they're living with their grandparents, as many children do these days? What are we to do when at least some of the teachers and the principal, not to mention the school bus driver, are over 60 or have diabetes or a heart condition, as many do?

What do we do when millions of people don't die, but are so seriously ill that they need hospitalization but there's no room left for them? That is as disruptive, if not more so, than the death of a smaller number of people who are conveniently retired and perhaps not so immediately integral to our society, or least our financial infrastructure.

I object to the framing of this pandemic as an either/or situation where everyone has the option of a normal life, if they just quietly agree to sacrifice a few old people. It's not that simple and easy, even if everyone agreed it was necessary. Even if no one dies, a pandemic can be devastating just by debilitating a large portion of the able-boded population. And there's always that remote risk that we'll mirror the 1918 pandemic, where the 1st wave wasn't so bad, but the 2nd wave was like a killing machine.

I would argue that there is no way to bargain for a "normal life" under these circumstances. That's wishful thinking.

I'm also in the high-risk group, because of my age, and because of respiratory difficulties caused by radiotherapy.

I don't think, at least in the UK, anyone's posing it in terms of either/or; rather, there's a whole host of different policy decisions to be taken and reviewed, all of them with potentially positive and adverse consequences for different groups, so policy-makers are going to have to deal with calculations like that all the time.

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

Staying home (so you don't spread the virus further) wash your hands regular with soap for about 20 seconds (2x Happy Birthday song). No testing needed. Doctors can do nothing for you. You have to sit it out.

That's simply not possible in the United States and I can't recommend it to anybody here. Other countries, the rest of the modern western world, might let people stay home when they're sick. In the US, you have to work when you're sick. If you are an hourly worker or a kid and you take a day off of work or school and you don't have an actual written note from a doctor, you're fired. Facts of life. Or well, you can't get fired from school, but you'll earn detentions/suspensions and if you're out enough "unexcused" days in a row you can actually get involuntarily withdrawn and held up a whole grade.

This is true even if you work at a restaurant. All the legally-required safety posters on the wall in the employee room tell you to stay home if you feel sick; but guess what, do it and you're fired. The legal notices and requirements don't actually protect your job if you have to follow them, because America. I was dog sick once, coughing with like ooze seeping from my eyes, and the manager didn't send me home, she just had me stay in the back (because it's "away from people") and clean the back rooms all day, and wash dishes. Yeah, the dishes that would later be used to make peoples' food. LOL, sorry suckers if you came into my restaurant, but I got my tuberculosis or whatever the heck it was allllll over the dishes that day - not on purpose or out of meanness, but yeah.

And quarantining yourself at home isn't going to work either; telling people to leave stuff outside your door isn't actually going to prevent anyone from contacting the virus if you ever open the door to retrieve things. Doors open inwards, and the outer surfaces get covered with the germs from the inside of your house whenever you open them, so the next person who comes to drop stuff off will be exposed anyway. Plus if you've got any kind of air conditioning going on inside your place, the positive pressure is going to be constantly pushing air out all around the edges of the door anyways. Home is not a real quarantine.

A hospital CAN actually quarantine you properly; they have the proper equipment and ventilation systems. In the USA, if you suspect you've got flu symptoms more than a simple cold in the midst of this pandemic, you need to get checked out. Don't just show up to the hospital and walk in any old entrance of course; call the ER and ask them exactly how they want you to interface with them, and then (important part) do exactly what they say. If THEY tell you to stay home then fine you should do that then; but I suspect they wouldn't. They'll almost certainly want to check you out for infection-tracking purposes if nothing else.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

That's simply not possible in the United States and I can't recommend it to anybody here. Other countries, the rest of the modern western world, might let people stay home when they're sick. In the US, you have to work when you're sick. If you are an hourly worker or a kid and you take a day off of work or school and you don't have an actual written note from a doctor, you're fired. Facts of life. Or well, you can't get fired from school, but you'll earn detentions/suspensions and if you're out enough "unexcused" days in a row you can actually get involuntarily withdrawn and held up a whole grade.

This is true even if you work at a restaurant. All the legally-required safety posters on the wall in the employee room tell you to stay home if you feel sick; but guess what, do it and you're fired. The legal notices and requirements don't actually protect your job if you have to follow them, because America. I was dog sick once, coughing with like ooze seeping from my eyes, and the manager didn't send me home, she just had me stay in the back (because it's "away from people") and clean the back rooms all day, and wash dishes. Yeah, the dishes that would later be used to make peoples' food. LOL, sorry suckers if you came into my restaurant, but I got my tuberculosis or whatever the heck it was allllll over the dishes that day - not on purpose or out of meanness, but yeah.

And quarantining yourself at home isn't going to work either; telling people to leave stuff outside your door isn't actually going to prevent anyone from contacting the virus if you ever open the door to retrieve things. Doors open inwards, and the outer surfaces get covered with the germs from the inside of your house whenever you open them, so the next person who comes to drop stuff off will be exposed anyway. Plus if you've got any kind of air conditioning going on inside your place, the positive pressure is going to be constantly pushing air out all around the edges of the door anyways. Home is not a real quarantine.

A hospital CAN actually quarantine you properly; they have the proper equipment and ventilation systems. In the USA, if you suspect you've got flu symptoms more than a simple cold in the midst of this pandemic, you need to get checked out. Don't just show up to the hospital and walk in any old entrance of course; call the ER and ask them exactly how they want you to interface with them, and then (important part) do exactly what they say. If THEY tell you to stay home then fine you should do that then; but I suspect they wouldn't. They'll almost certainly want to check you out for infection-tracking purposes if nothing else.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html

His circumstances can hardly be unusual.