Brexit.

[Sid]

No more kicking the can, no more non binding votes, no more strategic votes, we need an answer and we need it now. Otherwise, no extension and happy no deal crash.

That is exactly what I always think when my brain starts to produce steam over this Brexit charade, but fact is, we Europeans don't want the UK to crash out. So that idea always vanishes quickly again.
Although there is a relatively small sea between the UK and the rest of of the EU, our economies and way of life are depending on each other, grown together because of a long time UK membership of the EU. The UK has contributed a lot to what the EU is today. And although the leave camp tries to say otherwise, the EU has contributed a lot to the UK's well being as well.
Try to picture what impact it would have for both sides if the New England states were leaving the USA without any agreement with the rest.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

That is exactly what I always think when my brain starts to produce steam over this Brexit charade, but fact is, we Europeans don't want the UK to crash out. So that idea always vanishes quickly again.

I disagree; the UK can always withdraw from the triggering of A50. They should only get granted an extension if they do provide a clear roadmap on how they want to proceed with which mile stones and a proper timeline clearly showing what they do want, else no.

Otherwise this whole drama will go on for much longer than necessary.

 

[Sid]

I disagree; the UK can always withdraw from the triggering of A50. They should only get granted an extension if they do provide a clear roadmap on how they want to proceed with which mile stones and a proper timeline clearly showing what they do want, else no.

Otherwise this whole drama will go on for much longer than necessary.

I think it won't be 'else no', but 'else anyway'.
Nobody is helped with a no deal Brexit. And A50 withdrawn under pressure won't solve a thing either.
The UK is a deeply cross parties divided country over Brexit. That will not vanish when the EU pushes them to the cliff edge, so that the UK has to surrender against their will.

Best would be IMHO, if the negotiations would start all over from scratch, this time without the red lines put up by TM in the hopes to keep all the Tories in one party. There are better solutions possible for a Brexit, but not as long as the red lines are in place. But the UK has to come to that conclusion by itself.

That's why I think that the EU must reject a short time extension and should offer at least two more years to the UK, so that they can make a serious effort to hold cross party negotiations, a referendum, new general elections, pistol duels or whatever is needed to come to some kind of consensus about what a majority (and best not a handful of votes majority) wants in the end.

And if the UK manages to come up with a for both sides of the North sea workable plan in a shorter period of time, then the time extension can be shortened if both sides agree.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

And again I disagree; this whole Brexit thing has sucked up almost all political energy in the UK for over two years, with neglecting many important, other also pressing issues like fighting poverty for example. It's just like a black hole, which sucks up all political energy.

It's time to come to an end; it's not the EU that wanted the UK out, it's the UK that wanted to leave. They had over two years of time to come up with proper terms on how to do it, now it's for them time to finally face the consequences of their own choice.

If they want an extension, then the UK should be able to provide a proper roadmap - all other things are worthless, because the whole charade will then go on like this forever.

 

[Sid]

If the UK has to withdraw A50 against their will, nothing of that would be solved. Brexit would still be very much on the agenda in the UK and I think not only in Westminster. Can you imagine how the EU will be able to work, when there is a njet on everything from all the UK delegations in Brussels, because they are there against their will?
And kicking the Brits out without a deal and without them wanting it to happen, is shooting in your own foot as well.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Sid, the British government is behaving for me at the moment like a spoiled child, but a child none the less: and most children do only learn from painful experience. You can tell your child a thousand times not to touch a heated cooktop, it will do regardless at least once - then it feels the pain and will do that never, ever again.

 

[Sid]

I don't like how things go either, it goes far byond the madness Spitting Images and Yes ministers ever produced, a disgrace for democracy in many ways, but in the end there is a majority in the UK parliament and somewhere around 50% of the British people who want to leave the EU. There is something like the right to self-determination.
I think that is the main reason why A50 has become one of the EU regulations in the past.
And the finger burning took place a few times already. It doesn't keep the British government nor parliament from trying it again next week.
It will be on our plates for many years to come, I'm afraid, no matter what happens in the next few weeks.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

If I were the EU, I would not grant an extension without a binding state of intentions. Is it your intention to do the negotiated agreement? Is it your intention to No Deal? Is it your intention to Second Referendum? Is it your intention to rescind Article 50?

No more kicking the can, no more non binding votes, no more strategic votes, we need an answer and we need it now. Otherwise, no extension and happy no deal crash.

Sid, the British government is behaving for me at the moment like a spoiled child, but a child none the less: and most children do only learn from painful experience. You can tell your child a thousand times not to touch a heated cooktop, it will do regardless at least once - then it feels the pain and will do that never, ever again.

While it's certainly the fault of the British government that we've got into this ridiculous situation, because of the way they tried to keep Parliament out of the negotiating process all the way through, it's not now the government who are being difficult about the Withdrawal Agreement.

The government's official position is clear -- Theresa May wants to pass the Withdrawal Agreement as negotiated.

However, there's no majority in Parliament, or at least not yet, to do that. And the problem is that, while Parliament is clear about what it doesn't want, there's no actual majority, or not yet, in favour of doing anything -- accepting the agreement, crashing out with no deal, holding a referendum, withdrawing the Article 50 notification... not anything.

It's parliamentary gridlock.

A great deal of the circus over the last few months, whatever it's looked like from outside, hasn't been the government trying to persuade the EU to change anything. Rather, it's been the government trying to demonstrate to the Brexit jihadis and the opportunists who are positioning themselves to take over from Theresa May (though God only knows why anyone would want that job at the moment) that the EU really, really means it and won't change their minds, no matter how much their local Conservative Associations might want them to.

That's the problem. It's a problem for which the government is certainly responsible, in that the whole way they've handled Brexit since the referendum has caused the problem by allowing things to get to this stage, but it's one they're trying as best they can to resolve.

My big worry now is that next week we'll see a sullen and mutinous Conservative Party grudgingly acquiesce to the Withdrawal Agreement, and that the EU 27 will then agree to postpone the UK leaving the EU until the end of June, to give Parliament the time to pass the necessary legislation to adopt the WA into UK law.

The government then has to get the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill through both houses of Parliament, and that is going to be a nightmare for them, since it's going to be immensely long, necessarily highly complex, and there's clearly no real support for it.

So, while it's hard to see how the EU could reasonably refuse to allow time for the Bill to be passed, I'm very worried indeed that any truce inside the Conservative Party that might allow Theresa May to win a vote next week won't hold anywhere near long enough to pass the necessary legislation, and we'll simply have another crisis in two or three months' time.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

This thread is excellent -- really captures the commentary from the Conservative headbangers:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Kara Spengler]

Rachel Maddow closed her show tonight with a short segment on Nigel Farage. It seems he's doing his level best to convince an EU country, any country, to reject UK's request for more time. All he needs is one.

Yes, I thought that was hilarious. She also returned to donnie trotting him out and his crowd having no idea how to respond at first.

 

[Kara Spengler]

I think there are also two cultural problems between the UK and the continent, namely

1. no doesn't necessarily mean no. If you do ask a German if he want's a cookie and he tells you no, he means it that way from the beginning. If you do ask a Brit if he wants a cookie and refuses, you've got to ask several times to be sure he really meant it that way, because it's being considered polite to first refuse and later accept; if you don't ask several times, that might be considered rude by the Brit.
2. the political culture in the UK is being driven by heavy disputes, while in many European countries it's about reaching a consensus quite early.

Whereas a Finn will say no and keep saying no even if they REALLY want the cookie. You have to be able to guess if they want the cookie or not. Or get them drunk before asking.

Polling in the EU must be frustrating. So many cultures at play which each influence the results coming from that country.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Sid, the British government is behaving for me at the moment like a spoiled child, but a child none the less: and most children do only learn from painful experience. You can tell your child a thousand times not to touch a heated cooktop, it will do regardless at least once - then it feels the pain and will do that never, ever again.

Exactly. The people who want a hard brexit/no deal seem to be the only ones on the planet who do not realize how bad it will be. Using any form of an argument will not work. Statistical models will not work. Even examples will not work. The only thing really left is having it happen and even then many will insist brexit was a good idea or what happened was part of project fear. There is a hope that some of them will decide they REALLY did not like it though.

The frustrating thing is that in order to teach that lesson people who already knew it would be bad will have the pain as well.

 

[OrinB]

Exactly. The people who want a hard brexit/no deal seem to be the only ones on the planet who do not realize how bad it will be.

Oh they do! They have money on it being bad. They will also have the means to fuck off to another part of the world so they don't have to deal with the aftermath. They'll be beyond it all.

 

[Porsupah Ree]

Exactly. The people who want a hard brexit/no deal seem to be the only ones on the planet who do not realize how bad it will be. Using any form of an argument will not work. Statistical models will not work. Even examples will not work.

It's unfortunately highly similar to the political schools of thought on climate change, where again, facts simply do not matter.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

You can tell your child a thousand times not to touch a heated cooktop, it will do regardless at least once - then it feels the pain and will do that never, ever again.

Except it's not a burned finger we're talking about.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

I do agree, Argent - but I am also strict that asking the British government to provide at least a somewhat realistical roadmap on how they want to proceed during the extension is not too much of a requirement. I've got nothing against an extension, as long as the British government provides such a thing.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I do agree, Argent - but I am also strict that asking the British government to provide at least a somewhat realistical roadmap on how they want to proceed during the extension is not too much of a requirement. I've got nothing against an extension, as long as the British government provides such a thing.

The problem is -- and I agree this is a problem wholly of the British government's and opposition's making -- is that the government is in no position to do anything much right now.

They're currently desperately trying, variously, to beg, threaten and bribe their own MPs and the Democratic Unionist Party to hold their noses and vote to support the Withdrawal Agreement.

As I've argued earlier, if they are successful in that attempt, there's absolutely no guarantee that this grudging and sullenly acquiescent coalition of the decidedly unwilling will say begged, threatened or bribed for long enough to get the legislation through Parliament that's necessary to give legal force to the Withdrawal Agreement.

I have no idea how the vote will go next week but if Theresa May does somehow manage to get parliamentary approval for the Withdrawal Agreement, that's simply one step in a process. It has no legal force at all.

It simply gives her the political authority to ask the EU for an extension while she tries to pass the Withdrawal Agreement into English law, which would be a challenging task at the best of times, which this certainly isn't.

Indeed, I am sure that plenty of Conservative MPs are planning to vote for the WA next week simply in order to set the next stage of the process going, in order to sabotage the necessary legislation a few weeks down the road, thus precipitating the chaotic no-deal Brexit they want to see.

Alternatively, if the third "meaningful vote" (whatever "meaningful" means in this context by now) goes against her, then while it's certainly possible that Parliament could come together behind a sensible proposal to offer the EU, they'll need more than the week that will be left remaining.

The UK crashing out of the EU without a deal, at this point, is bad news for everyone. Obviously it will be a disaster for the UK. It will also be a disaster for the Republic of Ireland and for much of the EU, too. Indeed, it seems to me that the prospect of the world's 5th largest economy crashing, as will inevitably happen, is pretty back news for the whole global economy, given its rather fragile state at present.

This is not the time for hasty decisions on anyone's part, no matter how frustrated and angry -- and completely justifiably so -- the EU is with the UK at the moment.

 

[Tigger]

No long Brexit delay without election of British MEPs, says leaked paper

EU law does not stand in the way of multiple extensions to the UK’s membership if requested, the document says. But if elections had not been held in May, and the UK subsequently sought to stay on as a member state to avoid a no-deal Brexit, for example, the EU would be bound to reject a request, the document seen by the Guardian says.

“No extension should be granted beyond 1 July unless the European parliament elections are held at the mandatory date”, the legal opinion shared among ambassadors on Friday says.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

I do agree, Argent - but I am also strict that asking the British government to provide at least a somewhat realistical roadmap on how they want to proceed during the extension is not too much of a requirement. I've got nothing against an extension, as long as the British government provides such a thing.

It's not going to happen. They need an extension because they don't even know what a roadmap is. If they were ever going to provide on they'd have had it two years ago.

The extension is to give them time to realize they need to withdraw A50. To break May and hopefully get someone vaguely competent in place.