Opinion in Haaretz:
The Islamic Republic of Iran Is Not a Suicidal Regime. That's Fortunate for Israel
A direct war pitting Iran against Israel, and possibly the U.S., would be extraordinarily costly for Tehran, even jeopardizing the survival of a regime that is already facing a deep domestic legitimacy crisis, and which knows they'll be no 'rallying-around-the-flag' effect in case of full-blown war
Yet, despite the attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic is not a suicidal regime but adamantly preoccupied with its survival only. Far from being a surprise attack, Iranian state TV readily announced the launch of "dozens of drones and missiles" at Israel, and reportedly before that Tehran
may have informed Washington (U.S. officials have since denied), thus providing the other side with ample time to erect its defenses.
In turn, hardly any of the Iranian assaults had hit, causing no deaths. In contrast, the regime is celebrating it as a grand victory, with state TV partly using
fake images of heavy detonations caused inside of Israel. As such, the attack did not cause "maximum damage" as
warned by General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, following the Damascus strike. In contrast, "maximum damage" could have resulted from a different choice of Iranian retaliation, such as ballistic missiles that could have reached Israel
within twelve minutes and perhaps the most dreaded weapon of all for Israelis at the moment: the mass activation of Hezbollah, just across the border in Lebanon.
In other words, these characteristics of Iran's assault may also imply the will to de-escalate amid an escalation. In fact, although much larger in scope, Iran's attack is reminiscent of the retaliation in response to the January 2020 U.S. drone killing of then IRGC-QF commander General
Qasem Soleimani, when it fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles at two Iraqi air bases housing U.S. forces. Yet, no casualties were caused, as Tehran had issued warnings beforehand.
For the Iranian leadership, the mission appears to be concluded, as indicated by the comments by Bagheri and Iran's mission to the UN. And so, this face-saving show of force has satisfied two goals: One, restoring lost confidence among its domestic and regional adherents; and two, creating some deterrence against Israel's continuation of high-profile targeted killings, raising the latter's costs.
Also, the opposing camp can claim victory: Israel for its successful defense and heavily curtailing the impact of the Iranian salvo and the U.S. with its allies for an effective collective response. Such a win–win constellation could allow for de-escalation, yet such a scenario would also depend on Israel's reaction and the ensuing tit-for-tat.
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