WTF Climate Change News

[danielravennest]

To cite the standard book on that topic, the "World Energy Outlook" from the IEA 2020 edition:

IEA projections are famously wrong, and have been for decades.

Another article about their bad projections

Electric vehicle sales are rising exponentially, so linear projections based on current rates will produce a wrong answer:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

New carbon taxes: meat, cheese and gas heating prices to rise

Consumers face higher prices on meat, cheese and gas heating under plans being drawn up by Boris Johnson for new carbon taxes and charges.

The prime minister has ordered every department to produce a “price” for carbon emissions across all areas of the economy as part of a drive to achieve his net-zero carbon pledge. The proposals are at the centre of the carbon reduction blueprint that is expected to be announced in the run-up to Cop26, the United Nations’ climate change conference being hosted by Britain in Glasgow in November.

Only heavy industry, power generators and airlines are charged for their carbon emissions at present. However, ministers want to expand the “polluter pays” principle to all sectors, which could lead to higher consumer bills on some of the most carbon-intensive goods and services. This would mean a de facto carbon tax or charge on products such as beef, lamb and cheese.

Evernote link because paywall

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

IEA projections are famously wrong, and have been for decades.

Another article about their bad projections

Electric vehicle sales are rising exponentially, so linear projections based on current rates will produce a wrong answer:

Then let me put it this way: the global oil demand went down because of the pandemic. When the pandemic is over, people will start traveling again by airplane, driving their cars and so on.

So oil demand will definitely increase again once our lives will resettle. The few electrical cars so far are really nothing that will have a big impact on oil demand. Aside that oil is not only used for powering ICEs, but also for heating - another big part of energy consumption - as well as in the chemical industry.

Aside that there's a reason why the projections of the IEA are updated yearly - and you've simply got to start somewhere, and that's this report. If you by chance have a better source for forecasts lying around I am eager to learn more about them.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

The few electrical cars so far are really nothing that will have a big impact on oil demand.

EU to target 30 million electric cars by 2030 - draft

The European Union will aim to have at least 30 million zero-emission vehicles on its roads by 2030, as it seeks to steer countries away from fossil fuel-based transport, according to a draft document seen by Reuters.

www.reuters.com

European countries banning fossil fuel cars and switching to electric

Road Traffic Technology looks at European countries banning fossil fuel cars and introducing electric incentives, including Norway, Germany and the UK.

www.roadtraffic-technology.com

and in the UK specifically

Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

The PM confirms he is bringing the ban forward as he sets out his "green industrial revolution".

www.bbc.co.uk

That's in only nine years' time.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

30 million cars in a fleet of at least 1.3 billion. Yup, 2% is huge!

 

[Arkady Arkright]

30 million cars in a fleet of at least 1.3 billion. Yup, 2% is huge!

It's infinitely better than 0%...

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Lubricants, fertilizers, bulk container shipping, freight rail. There's lots more to industrialized society than cars.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

30 million cars in a fleet of at least 1.3 billion. Yup, 2% is huge!

How many petrol- or diesel-driven private cars do you think there will be on European roads in 15 or 20 years' time?

Does a 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars make a real difference?

There is plenty of evidence to suggest the accelerated ban will have very little impact on the new cars manufacturers would have been selling to us in 109 months' time anyway.

www.thisismoney.co.uk

Forget about other forms of transport for the moment -- here's a major reduction in one quite significant sector.

ETA: My Member of Parliament has particular interests in both global heating and in motor manufacturing, and I receive frequent updates about the work of the various parliamentary committees he's on.

From the evidence they hear, the switch to electric powered vehicles is obviously a huge measure to implement that takes years of preparation before it properly takes off, to make sure the infrastructure is in place, and that the car manufacturers are ready, and that's all happening at the moment.

It'll take a few years before we see the results on the roads, but then we most certainly will, and well before 2030.

That's happening here, and it's also happening in Germany, I'm certain.

 

[danielravennest]

30 million cars in a fleet of at least 1.3 billion. Yup, 2% is huge!

That's 30 million out of about 300 million in Europe, not worldwide. So 10%

 

[danielravennest]

Lubricants, fertilizers, bulk container shipping, freight rail. There's lots more to industrialized society than cars.

There's a couple of ways to decarbonize container shipping, but they are not economic yet:

Offshore wind turbines are a small but growing share of the wind energy business. So set up floating wind farms along shipping routes. Use them to charge up tugboats that consist of only batteries and motors. The containers ride in a separate craft that is pulled by the tugboats. When one tug runs low on power, it is replaced by a fresh one, and the depleted tug goes to the nearest wind farm to recharge. This avoids having to carry enough batteries for the whole trip, which would be heavy and expensive.

Alternately or in addition to the above, sail power was used for hundreds of years. If you redesign the ship to a catamaran hull, you can carry more sail area, and go faster than historical ships, and modern sail designs get better performance. You will still go slower than most cargo ships, but you avoid fuel and battery costs.

A final method is to develop kelp farming. Some seaweeds have a high lipid content and can be used as a biofuel.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

That's 30 million out of about 300 million in Europe, not worldwide. So 10%

And I was always talking about the global impact, because in terms of global impact the sum of all local measures is important.

It's very much plausible that the oil demand will increase again over the next few years, like it or not.

The electrification of personal vehicles raises other tasks which need to be tackled. EV work the best in terms of small carbon foot print if they do get their power from renewable sources. Renewables since they've started still have the problem of a missing, scalable long term energy storage which can be used when renewables are producing less power. Or when they producing too much power, and are being shut off, the so called left over energy.

The only real solution so far we do have are pumped-storage hydroelectricity, and that's not enough. Others exist on paper, but were not put on the real test yet. But we will do need such solutions if we plan do get rid of coal power plants.

 

[Arkady Arkright]

Alternately or in addition to the above, sail power was used for hundreds of years. If you redesign the ship to a catamaran hull, you can carry more sail area, and go faster than historical ships, and modern sail designs get better performance. You will still go slower than most cargo ships, but you avoid fuel and battery costs.

The Oceanbird is a cargo ship powered by giant, modern wind sails.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Who needs sails when you can use the Flettner rotor on your existing ship, which is based on the Magnus effect?

Although it hails from the 1920s, it became an interesting method again.

 

[Grandma Bates]

Little things matter, and many of our most pressing issues are closely intertwined. For example, small scale freedom of movement is a fundamental part of our relationship with other people, and it is also linked to our global context. I have been skeptical of Sec.Buttigieg with respect to many economic and social issues. His appointment to head the Dept. of Transportation has the potential to impact a wide range of issues, and it is encouraging the amount of scrutiny he is facing from some of our elected representatives. I hope they can hold his feet to the proverbial fire. (Also, see the wide spread attention that has been given to New York City's lack of bicycle infrastructure these past couple weeks.)

 

[Khamon]

This may or may not ultimately be attributed to climate change as the are is considered geologically “fragile” but damn:

Scores Are Feared Dead In India After Himalayan Glacier Breaks Away

At least 140 people are missing after a hydroelectric dam near the glacier was swept away in a deluge of water, rock and debris. "It came very fast. There was no time to alert anyone," a witness said.

www.npr.org

 

[Beebo Brink]

Earth is now losing 1.2 trillion tons of ice each year. And it’s going to get worse.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Finally a scientific study about the feasability of direct air carbon capturing on a global scale. The result is quite simple: it's really energy intensive, it would need at least 50% of the elecritical power the USA produce every year, and would need lots and lots of plants.

Emergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis - Nature Communications

Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative...

www.nature.com

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

 

[Caete]

Who needs sails when you can use the Flettner rotor on your existing ship, which is based on the Magnus effect?

Although it hails from the 1920s, it became an interesting method again.

The Cousteau Society's Alcyone has been using turbosails since 1985.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

'Put a big fat price on carbon': OECD chief bows out with climate rally cry

Exclusive: Ángel Gurría says action on environmental crises must be defining focus of wealthy countries after Covid

www.theguardian.com