How COVID-19 is affecting society

[Innula Zenovka]

I hope this isn't a surprise to anyone.

I may have posted this link before, but it's certainly informative to use this tool to calculate the likely numbers of people attending Trump's recent rallies who will have been infectious at the time.

COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

There's an article about it here:

Online COVID-19 Dashboard Calculates How Risky Reopenings and Gatherings Can Be

A new tool gauges the danger that someone may be infected with COVID-19 in groups of different sizes

blogs.scientificamerican.com

But still, scientists... what do they know?

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

COVID19 handling, Chinese style:

Starting at midnight on Sunday, four areas in Shufu were identified as high-risk areas for the virus' spread, and risk levels in other townships or villages in Shufu were upgraded to medium, according to the local disease control command center.

Kashgar launched a mass testing program covering its entire 4.75 million population following the detection of a 17-year-old girl in Shufu county who tested positive for the virus on Saturday during a routine check. The girl has shown no symptoms.

As of 4 pm on Monday, about 4.47 million samples had been collected and over 2.13 million test results returned, Wang said. All positive test results were traced to residents in Shufu where the first case was registered, and results from other areas in Kashgar were negative, he added.

What does this tell us? This:

1. Chinese authorities have routine tests to detect asymptomatic carriers.
2. They came up with a crisis plan really fast, and tested 94% of 4.75 million inhabitants of the area within two days.
3. Half of the test results were there within a day or less.

COVID-19 cases pass 160 in Kashgar amid mass testing

Asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 rose by 26 to a total of 164 as of 4 pm on Monday in the Kashgar prefecture of the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, and no new confirmed cases were detected, the local government said on Monday evening. Asymptomatic cases are placed in a different category from...

www.chinadaily.com.cn

 

[Free]

Thanks, Doc...

 

[Beebo Brink]

I had my first pandemic anxiety nightmare last night: I was in a clinic getting rather elaborate tests for a new pair of eyeglasses. Gradually the room filled with more and more people, none wearing masks, and suddenly I realized I wasn't wearing a mask either.

Just what I need, a new paranoia to augment my old familiar anxiety dreams of not finding my classroom in time for the final or entering an elevator that goes wildy out of control.

 

[Jolene Benoir]

Jared Kushner bragged in April that Trump was taking the country 'back from the doctors'

President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, boasted in mid-April about how the President had cut out the doctors and scientists advising him on the unfolding coronavirus pandemic, comments that came as more than 40,000 Americans already had died from the virus, which...

www.cnn.com

Because what the country needs during a fucking epidemic is King Idiot and his Idiot son-in-law overriding doctors and scientists. Blood is on their evil, greedy, sociopathic hands. They must be held accountable.

President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner boasted in mid-April about how the President had cut out the doctors and scientists advising him on the unfolding coronavirus pandemic, comments that came as more than 40,000 Americans already had died from the virus, which was ravaging New York City.

 

[Sovereignty]

The Remarkable Value of Thinking Broadly: A COVID-19 Trifecta

A long interview of Zeynep Tufekci by Eric Topol. One thing she studies is pandemics from a sociological viewpoint.

The interviewer Topol is hard to take For instance, he says, "If I look up 'prescient' in the dictionary, I think I might see your picture." I'm not sure how she put up with that wretched boot licking. Anyway. To give a flavor of her answers:

Because my original fields are technology and sociology, I didn't have the disciplinary constraints. I'm used to thinking about the way technology interacts with society. I'm used to thinking about everything from how machine learning works to how human psychology interacts with social media. There's no way to think only one of those things. It's a generalist's way of thinking. But it's not without empirical grounding in whatever it is you're working in, because otherwise you can just become a contrarian. That's the nightmare. It could be really easy to go from being a generalist and having all of these ideas to being a contrarian and saying, "I know this so now I'm going to opine about everything." You have to be supercautious about that.

 

[Free]

Ingraham continues her downward slide (which honestly, she's been on since her days of attacking Bill Clinton).

Error 404

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Can just keep sliding when there’s no bottom until the working conditions of Metropolis are achieved.

 

[Free]

Two Attendees at Trump North Carolina Rally Get COVID-19

Two people who attended President Donald Trump's rally last week in Gastonia, North Carolina, have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to an announcement from the Gaston County Department of Health and Human Services on Thursday.

“These cases are not thought to be an indication of spread from the rally at this time, but rather two independent cases among individuals who were in attendance,” the department said in a statement.

The county health department recommends anyone who attended the president’s Oct. 21 rally to assess their own risk, monitor for symptoms and get tested if necessary.

But according to the president, testing is bad for you!

 

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

 

[Free]

 

[Sovereignty]

I was going to post some depressing news about people who work in nursing homes. It appears to be the most dangerous occupation in the U.S. right now. link

So I went ahead and did it anyway. (sigh)

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Anti-masker who caught Covid had 'worst two weeks'

A man who refused to protect himself says his views were changed by a battle with Covid-19.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Johnson to hold press conference as England Covid lockdown looms

Sage members says young women particularly affected as PM set to announce national restrictions

www.theguardian.com

 

[Free]

Especially a message for the U.S. (because lunk heads)

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Especially a message for the U.S. (because lunk heads)

Plus, of course, no one has any way of knowing, after being vaccinated, if they're one of the 70% who are immune or the 30% who are still still vulnerable (and potentially contagious, even if they're asymptomatic).

We'll have to carry on with social distancing, masks, and so on, for a good while to come, though a widespread vaccination programme will, of course, greatly reduce the virus' ability to spread, and thus the number of infections and the danger of becoming ill from it.

 

[danielravennest]

Plus, of course, no one has any way of knowing, after being vaccinated, if they're one of the 70% who are immune or the 30% who are still still vulnerable (and potentially contagious, even if they're asymptomatic).

We'll have to carry on with social distancing, masks, and so on, for a good while to come, though a widespread vaccination programme will, of course, greatly reduce the virus' ability to spread, and thus the number of infections and the danger of becoming ill from it.

Although about 3% of the US population has tested positive for the virus, testing of various groups shows around 20% with antibodies. The difference is people who caught the virus, but never had symptoms or had weak ones and didn't get tested. That number is going to keep going up. So a vaccine with a 30% failure rate only matters for the remaining fraction of people who don't already have antibodies. At some point the number of people with antibodies already plus from an effective vaccine is high enough to stop the spread of the virus.

I don't know where that point will be, but we don't have to depend only on a vaccine.

 

[Free]

Uh oh, the tweeters remember.

Flashback: Mark Meadows Promised to Deliver 100 Million Vaccine Doses By the 'End of October'

A promise from Mark Meadows is making the rounds — as President Donald Trump's administration has now failed to hit a target date for a coronavirus vaccine.

www.mediaite.com

On Sept. 17, Meadows told reporters outside the White House that the plan was for 100 million doses of a vaccine would be “ready to go” by Oct. 31.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Although about 3% of the US population has tested positive for the virus, testing of various groups shows around 20% with antibodies. The difference is people who caught the virus, but never had symptoms or had weak ones and didn't get tested. That number is going to keep going up. So a vaccine with a 30% failure rate only matters for the remaining fraction of people who don't already have antibodies. At some point the number of people with antibodies already plus from an effective vaccine is high enough to stop the spread of the virus.

I don't know where that point will be, but we don't have to depend only on a vaccine.

I agree, but my point is that it's certainly not going to be a matter of "Now we've got a vaccine, so we can stop worrying about it" or "Now I've been vaccinated, I can stop worrying about it."

An effective vaccine will be a huge step forward in stopping the spread of the virus, and ending the pandemic, but we should still expect to need masks, social distancing and occasional lockdowns for the foreseeable future, even after a sufficiently large proportion of the population has been vaccinated to make a significant difference to the spread of the virus (which is probably going to take the best part of a year, from what I'm reading over here).

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Covid: Johnson’s U-turn puts England under tough new lockdown

Rules will shut pubs, cafes and non-vital shops, while local reviews will take place after four-week period

www.theguardian.com