Why U.S. food prices are going up

[Beebo Brink]

Insights from my favorite farmer:

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

Since your favorite farmer never heared about climate change nor even adresses that topic, while America is one of the most affected countries on the world I really have my doubts about her. If you are serious about that topic, omitting climate change totally is a big mistake.

Also ChatGPT thinks she's hand-picking some stuff and omitting the rest to tell the story she wants to tell instead of giving a realistic view. This is more an op-ed piece, but no factually correct report.

To give you the AI generated fact-check:
Executive Summary

The YouTube video “How the US Gave Up On Growing Food” (Farm to Taber, Dec 2025) makes several sweeping claims about U.S. agriculture, trade, and food production. We fact-checked the key assertions. In summary: the video correctly notes that U.S. egg imports spiked due to an avian flu outbreak and that the U.S. has vast farmland (≈880 million acres). However, it exaggerates that the U.S. “imports most of our food” (including staples like beef, potatoes, peanut butter, and flour) – in reality the U.S. remains a major agricultural exporter, though it has run a growing food trade deficit (~$58.7 billion in 2024). The claim that the decline “started” with something other than tariffs is generally true: the U.S. food trade balance swung to a deficit after 2014 (well before recent trade disputes). Crucially, the video’s assertion that “we import most of our food” is misleading: imports of high-value foods (fruits, vegetables, processed items) have risen, but the U.S. still produces large quantities of grains, meat, and dairy. The video also claims U.S. farms have been “growing less and less food” for 15+ years; this is false – U.S. farm output (in value) has increased (e.g. from $389 billion in 2017 to $543 billion in 2022). We provide a claim-by-claim analysis below with timestamps, short quotes, context, and authoritative data. Logical oversimplifications and omitted factors (like consumer preference for imported goods) are noted. All verdicts cite primary sources or official data.

Key Claims and Fact-Check

• [0:00] Claim: “The US was a breadbasket of the world. Now, we import most of our food – including breadbasket staples like beef, potatoes, peanut butter, and flour.” (Topic: Agricultural production & trade) – Misleading.
  • Analysis: The U.S. is indeed a major global food producer, but it is not true that we “import most of our food.” In fact, the U.S. is still one of the world’s largest food exporters. Official USDA/ERS data show that the U.S. ran a food trade surplus (exports > imports) through 2014, and only from 2015 onward shifted to a deficit. In 2024 the U.S. had a food trade deficit of about $58.7 billion – large, but still smaller than total agricultural trade. Nearly all of this deficit growth comes from imports (93% of the change since 2015). Importantly, many of the foods mentioned are only partially imported:
    • Flour (milled grain): USDA data confirm that most of the flour and soybean meal consumed in the U.S. are imports.
    • Fruits/Vegetables: A majority of fruits and nuts, and over one-third of vegetables consumed in the U.S., are imported.
    • Beef: The U.S. exports a large amount of beef and meat. (ERS lists beef and pork among top export categories.) In 2024 the U.S. actually imported more beef than it exported, resulting in a temporary trade deficit for beef, but the U.S. remains one of the world’s top beef producers and exporters.
    • Potatoes/Peanut Butter: U.S. potato production is large, and while some processed potato products are imported, the video’s claim that “staples” like these are mostly imported is unsubstantiated. The sources we found show imports rising for certain categories, but nowhere near “most of our food.”
  • Fallacies/Omissions: This claim cherry-picks high-profile imported items to imply the U.S. has lost self-sufficiency. It omits context that the U.S. remains a net exporter of many staple foods (e.g. grains and meat) and that the growing trade deficit is driven by high-value imports (like tropical foods, wine, coffee) that are not produced domestically.
  • Evidence: USDA data show imports of consumer-oriented and horticultural foods rose sharply, but exports of grains, oilseeds, and meat remain very large. The Rethink Trade report notes imports of beverages, fruits, nuts, seafood, and processed cereals grew by billions since 2015. The figure above shows that only since 2015 has the U.S. imported more food by value than it exported – contrary to “breadbasket” wording.
  • Verdict: False/Misleading. The U.S. does import a rising share of certain foods (especially fruits, vegetables, processed items), but it still produces the majority of common staples domestically. The claim exaggerates imports and ignores continued large exports.
• [0:05] Claim: “When egg prices spiked earlier this year, we couldn’t farm our way out of it… We had to import eggs.” (Topic: Poultry production) – True.
  • Analysis: In early 2025 U.S. egg prices soared due to a devastating bird-flu outbreak that dramatically cut domestic egg production. Livestock analysts report that U.S. egg imports surged in March 2025: countries like Brazil tripled shipments, and Mexico, Honduras and Turkey exported eggs to the U.S. to fill the gap. These imports helped bring egg prices down (from over $8 per dozen at peak to about $3 by month’s end). The video’s description is accurate that the U.S. could not immediately replace lost eggs from its farms and turned to imports.
  • Fallacies/Omissions: None significant; this is a factual short-term response to an emergency. (The video suggests this “highlighted” U.S. weaknesses, but the facts simply reflect a temporary market adjustment.)
  • Evidence: U.S. Commerce Dept. data show March 2025 egg imports jumped sharply due to avian flu, consistent with the video’s timeline. Analysts confirm imports were a “small fraction” of total supply but crucial for stabilizing prices.
  • Verdict: True. The U.S. indeed imported eggs in early 2025 to mitigate an avian-flu-driven shortage, as the video claims.
• [0:08] Claim: “We have one of the highest square miles of high-quality farmland of any country in the world.” (Topic: Land resources) – Supported/Ambiguous.
  • Analysis: The United States has an immense agricultural land base. The 2022 USDA Census reports about 880 million acres of farmland (cropland + pasture), nearly 39% of U.S. land (roughly 1.4 million square miles). This is indeed among the world’s largest (for comparison, Russia and China have similar or somewhat larger farmland areas). The qualifier “high-quality” is vague and not defined by the video. It is true that the U.S. leads in total farm area, but without a specific metric (e.g. “prime farmland”), the statement is hard to quantify.
  • Fallacies/Omissions: This claim is largely a descriptive statement about scale. However, it omits that simply having land doesn’t ensure production if the land is used differently. (For example, much U.S. farmland is devoted to livestock grazing or biofuel crops, not necessarily direct food.) It also ignores that other nations (e.g. Russia, Brazil) have comparable agricultural acreage.
  • Evidence: Census data: “880.1 million acres of land in farms…39% of all U.S. land” (2022). USDA ERS notes cropland alone was about 377 million acres (2017 data). Thus the U.S. has well over a million square miles of farmland.
  • Verdict: True but vague. The U.S. does have one of the world’s largest agricultural land bases. The claim is essentially correct about scale, but “high-quality” isn’t defined.
• [0:10] Claim: “And it didn’t start with tariffs.” (Topic: Trade policy) – True.
  • Analysis: The video implies that the trend of rising imports (and declining domestic production) predates recent tariff policies. This is supported by trade data: the U.S. had a positive food trade balance until 2014, long before recent tariff fights. The shift to a deficit occurred around 2015, whereas the latest tariff disputes began in 2018. In fact, a USDA report showed the farm trade deficit was projected to hit a record $49.5 billion in FY2025 — a result of multiple factors, not solely tariffs.
  • Fallacies/Omissions: This statement is a corrective, not a fallacy. However, it simplistically treats tariffs as unrelated; in reality, U.S. tariffs and retaliation have had some impact on agricultural trade. Analysts note tariffs were one factor, but also emphasize demand for imported goods and the strong dollar. The video rightly notes that long-term trends began earlier, but it glosses over that policy choices (tariffs, trade deals) did play a role in recent years.
  • Evidence: ERS reports that the U.S. agricultural trade balance was positive through 2014 and shifted to a deficit by 2019. A Politico report confirms USDA forecasting a record deficit of $49.5B (fiscal 2025) and that officials delayed the report due to the data, showing issues persisted through multiple administrations.
  • Verdict: True. The decline in net domestic food production/trade began well before the recent tariff wars, so attributing it solely to tariffs is inaccurate.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

• [0:12] Claim: “The US has been growing less and less food for the last 15+ years.” (Topic: Agricultural production) – False.
  • Analysis: This claim suggests U.S. agricultural output has steadily declined. The evidence contradicts that. U.S. total farm production (in dollar value) has grown significantly in recent years – for example, from $389 billion in 2017 to $543 billion in 2022. Long-run productivity data show total U.S. agricultural output rose about 1.46% per year from 1948–2021. Even as farm numbers fell, output per farm/acre rose. Weather and disease cause year-to-year swings, but there is no sustained long-term drop in production volume.
  • Fallacies/Omissions: The claim is an overgeneralization. It overlooks the fact that much U.S. agriculture has become more efficient (higher yields, productivity). It ignores the large increase in the value of output noted above. (The Census shows increasing net farm income and production value.) The claim may conflate production with policy or farm profitability, which is misleading.
  • Evidence: USDA data: “U.S. farms and ranches produced $543 billion in agricultural products [in 2022], up from $389 billion in 2017.”. ERS confirms decades of output growth (even as inputs fell).
  • Verdict: False. U.S. agricultural output has increased, not declined, over the past 15 years. The video’s claim disregards the rising productivity and total production volume documented by USDA.

Data Comparison

Claim (Value)	Verified Data & Source
U.S. farmland area: “highest square miles of high-quality farmland”	2022 USDA: 880 million acres in farms (39% of U.S. land). Largest in world; quality not specified.
Food trade balance: “import most of our food”	2024 U.S. food trade deficit $58.7 billion (imports > exports). Last surplus was 2014.
Farm production (value): “growing less food 15+ yrs”	Farm output increased: $389B (2017) → $543B (2022). Productivity +1.46%/yr since 1948.
Egg imports: “had to import eggs”	In Mar 2025 the U.S. imported record egg volumes (e.g. Brazil tripled exports) to offset avian flu losses.
Policy trend: “didn’t start with tariffs”	U.S. began net importing food by 2015, before recent tariffs (2018+). USDA forecast FY2025 farm deficit $49.5B.