There are signs floating around that Friedrich Merz' days as chancellor might be soon over, sooner than we all think.
Thing is he fired and hired some ministers in a kind of manner which pissed a lot of people of his own party really off.
The prime minister of Rheinland-Pfalz, Gordon Schnieder, wrote an open letter to Merz that he will not participate on an internal meeting with him, because this requires trust and appreciation, which both is not there any longer. Schnieder is the brother of the fired minister of traffic and infrastructure.
Several other people scolded Merz for his leading style, telling him he's not running a company but leading a party.
Some people think that the person with the biggest chance of replacing him is the prime minister of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Hendrick Wüst. Wüst is reigning that state with the Green party, and doing there quite well.
There will be 3 elections of state parliaments this year: in Sachsen-Anhalt (6th of September), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin (20th of September). In Sachsen-Anhalt the right wing extremist party AfD is leading the polls since weeks around 41%, in MV it is still around 35,7%. Even in Berlin, which normally is left-leaning, the AfD is 3rd biggest party at around 18%.
One of Merz' declared goals was to half the AfD everywhere; instead he reached that mile stone with his own party by simple copying the AfD too much.
So many people expect an internal rebellion to happen latest after Sachsen-Anhalt is lost. The CDU itself is divided in 2 parts: one is the more moderate part, which still holds on the ideas of Angela Merkel and sees Merz as an error. The other one is the more right-leaning, and considers Merkels' time as big mistake, because in their opinion the CDU leaned way too much to the left and lost her political identity.
Some political commentators think it is possible that in Sachsen-Anhalt the CDU will split into 2 parties around this divide. And that the more right-leaning part either forms an own party entering a coalition then with the AfD, or just joining the AfD entirely. Question is which part in Sachsen-Anhalt is going to be bigger after such a split.
Merz is the most unpopular chancellor in Germany history. He's also very unpopular within his own party: the moderate crowd dislikes him for being too radical, which the really right-wing crowd hates him for not delivering on his election promises, instead breaking every one of them. Merz promised no tax raises, not more debt, economic growth. All of that has been broken by him: there are tax raises, he took the biggest debt in history and the economy is still on the ground. For the right-wingers he is all bark no bite, a lame duck.
There are now 2 possible ways how Merz might be replaced:
1. he could ask the parliament to express its trust into him. If he doesn't get the majority behind him, the president will dissolve the parliament and new elections have to be done within 3 weeks. Since in polls for the Bundestag AfD is right now top 1 with 27% and then CDU 2nd place with 21% this is unlikely going to happen.
2. the parliament itself could express its distrust into Merz. This is called the konstruktives Misstrauensvotum (constructive votum of distrust), which is a different procedure. It is initiated if at lest 1/4 of the members of parliament demand it.
The Bundestag then has to vote about it. If the current chancellor is unable to get the majority of the house behind him this is a successful expression of distrust. The Bundestag then has 48 hours time to elect a new chancellor. If this is successful, the president has to omit the old chancellor and appoint the new one.
The only time in history this happened successfully was 1982 when Helmut Kohl (CDU) became the successor of Helmut Schmidt (SPD), because Schmidt's coalition partner FDP rebelled and joined the CDU.
In case the chancellor is just stepping down he will remain in the office until a new chancellor is being elected: the president then will select somebody to become the new chancellor, and put him to vote in the parliament. It's a quite fleshed out process. This only happened once in 1974 when Willy Brandt (SPD) stepped down due to the Guillaume affair. It is very unlikely, that Merz will just step down because his ego is way too big for that.
The most likely event going to happen is a votum of distrust. In order for this to happen major parts of the CDU have to rebell against Merz by not voting for him. It also means they also better have figured out his potential successor due to the 48 hour time window.
Ein Minister verschickt seine Abschieds-SMS, doch sein Nachfolger springt um vier Uhr morgens ab – und Friedrich Merz steht bei der Pressekonferenz da, als wäre nichts geschehen. Was folgt, ist die schwerste innerparteiliche Krise seiner Kanzlerschaft.
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