Coronavirus Updates

[Brenda Archer]

From a clinical point of view this is kind of neat (*wince*). Because the virus obviously mutates a tiny bit every time an infected host copies it, this kind of history-map can be drawn using viral DNA, accurately enough that they can say someone from Washington state - or at least, someone who was there - brought the infection to the Grand Princess cruise ship, and that somebody who got off that ship subsequently infected other people in California.

Agreed, it’s fascinating.

This also pushes community circulation in WA back to January.

 

[Brenda Archer]

Here's the reason why despite the Corona pandemic there is not much less air traffic:

Airlines are wasting thousands of gallons of jet fuel running empty ‚ghost‘ planes during the Coronavirus outbreak, due to European rules forcing operators to lose their flight slots if they keep their planes on the grounds.
Demand for flights has collapsed across the globe amid growing fears over the coronavirus pandemic.
However, under existing European rules airlines operating out of the continent must continue to run 80% of their allocated slots or risk losing them to a competitor.
This has led to some operators flying empty planes in and out of European countries at huge costs, the Times of London newspaper reported.

Airlines are burning thousands of gallons of fuel flying empty 'ghost' planes so they can keep their flight slots during the coronavirus outbreak

Airlines are running empty "ghost" flights because of European rules forcing operators to run their allocated flights or risk losing their slots.

www.businessinsider.de

OMG.

If viruses don’t do us in, bureaucracy will.

 

[Caliandris]

No, it's a respiratory illness, there won't be any GI symptoms with it AFAIK

What happened is somebody who didn't know that panicked and started buying lots of it, and other people saw that and started doing it too, thinking maybe this person knew something they didn't.

The Corvid-19 quarantine period is two weeks, but people are buying a heck of a lot more than two weeks' worth of toilet paper.

There were reports in the initial stages of people having GI complications as well as all the others.

If you have five or six people in the house, you can get through a considerable amount of TP in a week. The papers have suggested the quarantine period may be increased from 14 to 21 days, but also the people over 60 may want to quarantine themselves for the duration of the outbreak

I'm assuming the people buying up, or attempting to buy up, large quantities are either alarmed that everyone else is getting all the stock, or planning to self isolate for longer

If you're retired, on a pension, and over eighty, I'm not sure that's a bad idea.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

German magazine "Der Spiegel" interviewed economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis and the consequences of austerity for Greece. The article is in English.

The short version is: the global economy is going to face a major crisis because this is a supply chain shock, the politicians are completely unprepared and acting too slow, also issuing banks are powerless. China might look for a scape goat and Donald Trump will not be reelected as a result of climbing gas prices if he goes at war against Iran.

This crisis is much more severe for China and the rest of the world than investors have expected for four reasons: First, it is not an epidemic limited to China, but a global pandemic. Second, it is far from being over. This has massive consequences, but politicians don’t realize it.

Everyone believes it’s going to be a V-shaped recession, but people don’t know what they are talking about. They prefer to believe in miracles. It’s simple math: If the Chinese economy were to shrink by 2 percent in the first quarter, it would require growth of 8 percent in the final three quarters to reach the 6 percent annual growth rate that everyone had expected before the virus broke out. If growth is only 6 percent from the second quarter onwards, which is a more realistic scenario, we would see the Chinese economy only growing by 2.5 to 4 percent for the entire year. This rate would essentially mean a recession for China and a shock to the world.

Businesspeople tell me that things in China are much worse than the government is officially reporting. A friend of mine in Shanghai has been locked in his home for weeks now. I don’t expect a revolution, but the government will need a scapegoat.

Already, there were conspiracy theories going around about foreign interference when it comes to swine flu, bird flu and the Hong Kong uprising. I assume that China will start trouble in Taiwan, Hong Kong or even Vietnam. They’ll crack down on protesters in Hong Kong or send fighters over Taiwanese air space to provoke the U.S. military. It would only take one accident in the Strait of Formosa and you would see military action. Not a hot war between China and the U.S., but some form of action. This is what people in the U.S. government like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or Vice President Mike Pence want. It’s the mentality of many people in D.C.

He [Trump] will try to reap benefits from this crisis, that’s for sure. But everything will change when coronavirus reaches the U.S. You can’t build a wall in the sky. Look, I live in New York City and people there are hardly going to restaurants, cinemas or theaters, even though nobody there has been infected by the virus thus far. If it comes, we are totally fucked.

DER SPIEGEL: A perfect scare-scenario for Trump?

Roubini: Not at all. He will lose the election, that’s for sure.

DER SPIEGEL: A bold prediction. What makes you so sure?

Roubini: Because there is a significant risk of a war between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. government wants regime change, and they will bomb the hell out of the Iranians. But Iranians are used to suffering, believe me, I am an Iranian Jew, and I know them! And the Iranians also want regime change in the U.S. The tensions will drive up oil prices and lead inevitably to Trumps defeat in the elections.

DER SPIEGEL: What makes you so sure?

Roubini: This has always the case in history. Ford lost to Carter after the 1973 oil shock, Carter lost to Reagan due to the second oil crisis in 1979, and Bush lost to Clinton after the Kuwait invasion. The Democratic field is poor, but Trump is dead. Quote me on that!

DER SPIEGEL: A war against Iran is needed to beat Trump?

Roubini: Absolutely, and it’s worth it. Four more years of Trump means economic war!

DER SPIEGEL: What should investors do to brace for the impact?

Roubini: I expect global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year. My advice is: Put your money into cash and safe government bonds, like German bunds. They have negative rates, but so what? That just means that prices will rise and rise - you can make a lot of money that way. And if I am wrong and equities go up by 10 percent instead, that’s also OK. You have to hedge your money against a crash, that is more important. That’s my motto: "Better safe than sorry!"

Nouriel Roubini on Coronavirus: "This Crisis Will Spill Over and Result in a Disaster" - DER SPIEGEL - International

Economist Nouriel Roubini correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he believes that stock markets will plunge by 30 to 40 percent because of the coronavirus. And that Trump will lose his re-election bid.

www.spiegel.de

 

[Essence Lumin]

And I really don't understand why, of all our daily necessary commodities, why toilet paper is flying off the shelves faster than it can be stocked. Does coronavirus cause explosive diarrhea? I'm really failing to see the connection.

I think it has to do with people's fears that things will collapse. What is the first thing you don't want to be out of? Toilet paper. If I'm out of food I can go to the store but if I'm out of toilet paper and need some it will be messy.

 

[Stora]

'Did you cough at me?' row on Sydney train.

A woman's cough on a train in Sydney has sparked a row that's since gone viral on Australian social media.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation journalist Andy Park was sitting near two passengers when they started quarrelling over the woman's coughing etiquette.

'Did you cough at me?' Virus row on Sydney train

 

[Caliandris]

Our government has just given a lobby briefing, reported in the Guardian, which seems to contain some odd things. They accept we are beyond the containment phase in the UK but advise elderly people *not* to stay at home, contradicting what was said a few days ago. They seem to have abandoned temperature measurement at airports because it isn't working. They're looking at lifting the rules on the hours in which vans can make deliveries to homes. I don't know if this means supermarket deliveries at 2am. They are meeting with sports leaders but not cancelling sporting events at the moment.

Locally here, everything is as usual, except for some items running out in the shops. People are still shopping, meeting in coffee shops and holding events generally.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Meanwhile in the UK, the official medical advice to government is not to cancel large sporting events, or at least not ones that are being televised, because the risks -- both of contracting and passing on the disease -- are considerably greater for people if they stay at home and watch the match in their local pub than if they travel to the stadium.

Paging Jonathan Swift.

I've been thinking about this remark, and trying to apply it to solving HMG's related problems concerning both how to fund residential social care for elderly and vulnerable patients and how to recruit sufficient staff to care for them under the new proposals in immigration rules for when freedom of movement with the EU ends.

I now rather wish I hadn't, but I'm sure similar thoughts occurred to Dominic Cummings.

 

[Caliandris]

Ok I'm a bit of a fail when it comes to linking twitter comments. I took a screen shot, sorry.

 

[Caliandris]

I've been thinking about this remark, and trying to apply it to solving HMG's related problems concerning both how to fund residential social care for elderly and vulnerable patients and how to recruit sufficient staff to care for them under the new proposals in immigration rules for when freedom of movement with the EU ends.

I now rather wish I hadn't, but I'm sure similar thoughts occurred to Dominic Cummings.

Do you know it occurred to me too that it might suit them very well if the elderly were to be killed off in some sort of terrible accident. I decided I was being unnecessarily nasty, but perhaps not.

I don't know how familiar you are with Michael Spicer, I highly recommend his room next door videos and may have shared them elsewhere on VVO. This one is President Trump and the Coronavirus. It's not as funny as some of the others, but still worth watching:

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Do you know it occurred to me too that it might suit them very well if the elderly were to be killed off in some sort of terrible accident. I decided I was being unnecessarily nasty, but perhaps not.

I don't know how familiar you are with Michael Spicer, I highly recommend his room next door videos and may have shared them elsewhere on VVO. This one is President Trump and the Coronavirus. It's not as funny as some of the others, but still worth watching:

Michael Spicer is wonderful. I'd not seen this one yet.

 

[Aribeth Zelin]

I tried to watch, but I just cannot tolerate twitler's voice.

 

[Caliandris]

«Con le nostre azioni influenziamo la vita e la morte di molte persone»

 

[Luisa Land]

I was thinking about posting this here at all as it is not very optimistic news for many people. But it's no use not taking note of more pessimistic assessments under the heading "Dont panic" .


The virologist, who apparently advises the national health minister here and who has also been studying and researching coronaviruses before the outbreak, says today He is no longer as optimistic as he was still a week ago that with increasing temperature, i.e. next spring and summer, the incidence of infection will be greatly reduced. It's not going to happen as it looks now , he says. Instead, we will be walking into a wave of infection

If at all, rising temperatures would only cause a small dent in the spread of the infection

He sees the main task now as protecting the risk groups, especially the elderly. The elderly should take this very seriously and adjust their lifestyle accordingly for the next few months. This means above all a strong reduction of the own social contacts.

 

[Beebo Brink]

He sees the main task now as protecting the risk groups, especially the elderly. The elderly should take this very seriously and adjust their lifestyle accordingly for the next few months. This means above all a strong reduction of the own social contacts.

My wife and I are wrestling with this strategy as we evaluate each outing. Grocery store, yes, but we're getting as much of everything (mostly tons of dog & cat food) as we can now so that we need fewer trips to the store from now. Timing those trips to off-peak hours will be the next phase. We both need haircuts and we were going to get those this past weekend, but the hair cuttery was packed with people waiting, so we turned around and left without even stepping foot inside.

Today I canceled taking part in a "Girls Lunch" planned for the women in our office at a local restaurant. No, just no (okay, I wasn't that keen on going in the first place, but I was going to grit my teeth and get through it, now I have a really good excuse not to).

I'm not the most social type at the best times, so avoiding crowds is not going to be a hardship.

 

[Clara D.]

My hands itch from the number of times they've come into contact with hand foam today.

On a related note, I'm allergic to something in Purell. On a "hands break out in itchy hives" sort of level.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

Anything with a scent does that to me.

 

[Caliandris]

On a related note, I'm allergic to something in Purell. On a "hands break out in itchy hives" sort of level.

I discovered I was allergic to Methylisothiazolinone about 7 years ago. They replaced parabens (about 3% allergic to it) with Methylisothiazolinone and its brother and sister chloroisothiazolinone and benzoisothiazolinone, which according to reports from the EU have caused an explosion of allergic dermatitis, otherwise known as eczema. It's a preservative. Each individual manufacturer will be testing whether their product is safe in isolation, but nobody is testing whether the onslaught we are subjected to is safe - the chemical is a neurotoxin. It's in spray cleaners, shampoos, conditioners,washing up liquid, washing liquids, clothing conditioners, lotions, paints, you name it - even mouthwashes. The EU has asked manufacturers to remove it from anything "leave on" like creams and moisturisers and sun creams. I'd be surprised if the Purell has any need for preservative, but if it is scented, the scent may have it in, and it's REALLY hard to find out from manufacturers if that's the case if you are sensitive.

It will sometimes be listed as Kanthan on labels. It will sometimes NOT be listed on labels but be included in the scent additive, and that is why some people of my age have suddenly developed eczema having never suffered from it before. I try really hard to keep it out of my home, and to avoid contact with it, but it is ubiquitous outside the home. I don't have such a bad allergy as some people - I generally get eczema on my foot and eyelid (yes! I know! weird...) but some nurses with the allergy have looked like they have gone ten rounds with Mike Tyson, with swollen faces etc, and have had to leave the profession, due to the extent of the contact with this chemical, which is added to floor cleaners and surface cleaners and a lot of other stuff.

 

[Rose Karuna]

My wife and I are wrestling with this strategy as we evaluate each outing. Grocery store, yes, but we're getting as much of everything (mostly tons of dog & cat food) as we can now so that we need fewer trips to the store from now. Timing those trips to off-peak hours will be the next phase. We both need haircuts and we were going to get those this past weekend, but the hair cuttery was packed with people waiting, so we turned around and left without even stepping foot inside.

Today I canceled taking part in a "Girls Lunch" planned for the women in our office at a local restaurant. No, just no (okay, I wasn't that keen on going in the first place, but I was going to grit my teeth and get through it, now I have a really good excuse not to).

I'm not the most social type at the best times, so avoiding crowds is not going to be a hardship.

This sounds like us. Particularly coming out of the store with more cat food than human food.

I don't have room even in my new house to store a months worth of toilet paper so a long time ago I bought these: Amazon.com: Adventure Wipe Compressed Wipes, Towels, or Compact Toilet Paper Tablets (500 Count with 4 Convenient Carrying Cases): Beauty

They will do in a pinch.

Regarding cancellations, either of us are all that social anyway so it's not like we have a full social calendar and we're out at restaurants every night (plus I enjoy cooking). I did notice though that restaurants are still packed around here, so life goes on.

I like having an excuse just to hang around the house more.

 

[Maggy Hazelnut]

Add me to the list of those stocking up on dog & cat food. haha I hope my UPS driver stays healthy cause he's making a lotta trips to my house lately!