Coronavirus Updates

[Innula Zenovka]

So, what are the odds on Trump cancelling elections?

Is there a legal means to do that?

 

[Innula Zenovka]

It's unbelievable.
"Very much under control" ??
is this really from Trump?
It sounds like a parody of Trump's reaction to the virus
Does he think the majority of US citizens are stupid enough to believe that.
Or is he even right about that assessment?

Perhaps he thinks that, like global warming, Corvid-19 is just a Chinese plot to cheat the USA.

 

[Soen Eber]

Perhaps he thinks that, like global warming, Corvid-19 is just a Chinese plot to cheat the USA.

He gets most of his news and opinion from Fauxox News, so he's probably thinking what's on FOX.

 

[Beebo Brink]

The disruptions to the financial sector caused by Corvid-9 will upset Trump the most, followed by his own germ-phobic paranoia. His concern for the rest of America will be negligible.

Should make for some fascinating interactions with his fan base if the coronavirus spreads to the U.S. (as most experts are saying it almost certainly will).

 

[Beebo Brink]

What I'm saying is, yes, this covid-9 looks rather nasty, but we're already dealing with a rather nasty pandemic; one that just happens to come every year, so nobody's freaking out about that, and there's probably no reason to freak out about this virus.

From what I'm reading it's not the virulence of covid-9 that is so dangerous, it's that it's so very contagious. It's easily transmitted, even more so because so many people are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms that they go about their business not even realizing they are sick. Other influenzas are contagious when the person is feeling very sick and therefore stays home.

One epidemiologist was predicting that 70% of the world's population could eventually be exposed to this pathogen, so even a low mortality rate would still rack up huge actual numbers of fatalities.

 

[Isabeau]

Very good article which explains much, not only about the difference between "regular" flu and corona viruses, but also about a potential vaccine.

One thing I learned, unlike the flu, once you are infected, you don't gain some form of immunity to future outbreaks of similar strains, or at least, this wasn't the case for the other four corona viruses.

It isn't too long, and I found it to be very informative.

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Beebo Brink]

I keep interchanging between covid-9 and covid-19, but apparently it's the 19 that is correct. Numbers are so hard....

Anyway, thanks Isabeau, it's this same Atlantic article that I had just read, with the projection of 70%. And this:

If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

[Arilynn]

From what I'm reading it's not the virulence of covid-9 that is so dangerous, it's that it's so very contagious. It's easily transmitted, even more so because so many people are asymptomatic or have such mild symptoms that they go about their business not even realizing they are sick. Other influenzas are contagious when the person is feeling very sick and therefore stays home.

One epidemiologist was predicting that 70% of the world's population could eventually be exposed to this pathogen, so even a low mortality rate would still rack up huge actual numbers of fatalities.

I agree. I also have read what Luisa mentioned: That health officials around the world had hoped to contain this novel strain before it went around the globe and became unstoppable. They had a narrow opening to keep it, with only one identified strain versus the flu, contained and thus easier to eradicate or manage, and now that is gone.

Everything I’ve read agrees with what Casey said about unreliability of data atm, but it appears that Covid-19 may have a higher mortality and be more infectious than the flu. There is also a lot of speculation that airborne transmission (vs. droplets) may be possible with Covid-19, which would be a scary change from the flu.

The US should have learned from SARS and MERS and been prepared for a novel infectious agent, particularly one from China, with its wet markets, rate of international travel, large numbers of concentrated urban population, deficiencies in primary care, doctor shortage, central authority, and role in the US and world economy. I wish less of government science and public health funding was subject to the whims of politics. After Covid-19 will come another new agent, and everything I‘ve seen about the Trump admin response indicates that we need a better system as well as a better president, as a low a standard as that second one is.

 

[Beebo Brink]

If this starts spreading in the U.S., campaign rallies will be the last place you'd want to show up. Such an interesting year we're having....

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Lengthy and illuminating account of the crisis by a Wuhan resident

The Word from Wuhan · LRB 22 February 2020

Vol. 42 No. 4 · 20 February 2020 extra The Word from Wuhan Wang Xiuying 3069 words When SARS broke out in 2003, I was in graduate school. Shanghai was not a hot zone, with only eight people infected o...

www.evernote.com

 

[Archer]

Congress's Battle over Coronavirus Funding


The meat of the article in case you don't have a subscription:

It’s now looking like coronavirus is threatening a potential public health emergency. And a battle has broken out between the White House and Democrats over how much money to allocate to the crisis, with the White House pushing for less than Democrats think is called for.
But at the core of this dispute is something that’s hasn’t yet gotten public exposure — and is potentially very troubling.
House Democrats tell us they are outraged by one aspect of the White House response in particular: The White House appears to have informed Democrats that they want to fund the emergency response in part by taking money from a program that funds low-income home heating assistance.

A document that the Trump administration sent to Congress, which we have seen, indicates that the administration is transferring $37 million to emergency funding for the coronavirus response from the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, which funds heating for poor families.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Weird rumors are starting to pop up about coronavirus in the States. Some guy has posted a video message claiming his wife is a nurse in Buffalo, NY, and she's been treating several coronavirus patients whose cases have not been reported to the CDC. That morphed into a report that the patients have been "cleared" by the CDC and allowed to leave the hospital, even though they had positive test results earlier.

Whether or not any of this is true, the comments to his video were a window into how many people assume the government is lying, deliberately covering up the truth. Proposed motivations vary from "they don't want people to panic" to "they want us all to die." There's a deep reservoir of suspicion and paranoia and this disease is tapping into that.

Watching vids covering this is ... strange. People contradicting each other all over the place. When in doubt I side with medical doctors over some rando with a camera though.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Congress's Battle over Coronavirus Funding


The meat of the article in case you don't have a subscription:

Fuck you donnie.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Japan is pretty much about 'face' and appearances as well as 'following the manual'.
When there is no manual to follow, well then it is all about the former.
We don't have a very good track record when it comes to honesty either.

With so much invested in the 2020 Olympics, the main concern is to sweep as much as possible under the rug.
Personally I have very little faith in the government or the medical system, even more so this time around.

OPINION: Japan needs effective support system for disaster rescuers

I don't know how accurate a picture of the Japanese government's response this draws:

Japan’s Coronavirus Cruise Ship Debacle Shows Epidemic Can Be a Gift for Would-Be Dictators

There are many lessons to be learned from the disaster that is the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama. Some are epidemiological, but the most disturbing are political.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Archer]

One of the main problems in the US is they aren't testing very many cases at all. The testing kit the CDC sent out was defective and they haven't gotten anything distributed yet. So one of the reasons we aren't seeing the data is because there just isn't any yet.

 

[Pamela]

Contrary to what Trump and minions are telling us:

CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S.

Federal health authorities said they now expect a wider spread of the new coronavirus in the U.S. and are preparing for a potential pandemic, though they still are unsure about how severe the health threat could be.

www.wsj.com

 

[Pamela]

I agree. I also have read what Luisa mentioned: That health officials around the world had hoped to contain this novel strain before it went around the globe and became unstoppable. They had a narrow opening to keep it, with only one identified strain versus the flu, contained and thus easier to eradicate or manage, and now that is gone.

Everything I’ve read agrees with what Casey said about unreliability of data atm, but it appears that Covid-19 may have a higher mortality and be more infectious than the flu. There is also a lot of speculation that airborne transmission (vs. droplets) may be possible with Covid-19, which would be a scary change from the flu.

The US should have learned from SARS and MERS and been prepared for a novel infectious agent, particularly one from China, with its wet markets, rate of international travel, large numbers of concentrated urban population, deficiencies in primary care, doctor shortage, central authority, and role in the US and world economy. I wish less of government science and public health funding was subject to the whims of politics. After Covid-19 will come another new agent, and everything I‘ve seen about the Trump admin response indicates that we need a better system as well as a better president, as a low a standard as that second one is.

Rachel Maddow tonight explained in detail how the Obama admin, in response to Ebola, created a robust response team from cooperating agencies.

Then guess who gutted it all, fired the pandemic team and others, left just a skeleton crew, stopped working with most other countries, etc.

 

[eku zhong]

I don't know how accurate a picture of the Japanese government's response this draws:

Japan’s Coronavirus Cruise Ship Debacle Shows Epidemic Can Be a Gift for Would-Be Dictators

There are many lessons to be learned from the disaster that is the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama. Some are epidemiological, but the most disturbing are political.

www.thedailybeast.com

Pretty much smacks the nail on the head about the government.
but there is much more to the story. TL;DR follows.
If you look at the numbers in Japan vs the numbers in Korea, there is a huge difference. But to be honest this is ONLY because Korea is doing it right. They are testing all the 'at risk' people and then when a positive test comes back, they expand the testing to contacts of going all the way down the line as much as they can.
When you look at Japan's cases there is no expansion of testing. In fact people are not tested until they are pretty much on a respirator.
There was a website which has since been taken down, where someone (private) was tracking each of the official positive patients; listing when they fell ill, how many times they went to the doctor or clinic, how many different clinics they went to, where they travelled and whether they went to work while they had symptoms and which days if they did.
The site was taken down one day after it went live.
I was lucky enough to have seen it. Or unlucky maybe... because it was shocking. In most cases people went multiple times to multiple medical facilities before needing to be hospitalised due to severe pneumonia after which, several days later, they were tested.
There were also doctors (plural) who saw patients while they themselves had fevers and coughs. They even performed surgery while infected (but not yet tested).
There was a teacher who taught with a cough and a fever. She went to several medical facilities, (while continuing to teach). There was talk about closing the school for several days, but no testing of students or their families. No talk of voluntary quarantine....
A lunch lady at another school eventually tested positive when she was hospitalised for severe pneumonia. Of course she worked the whole time she was showing symptoms and visited several medical facilities... same deal as the other school.. maybe close for a few days../. oh and they threw away the cutlery (HAAHAHA students take their own chopsticks and spoons to school so that's a lie)
There are several (Yes several) taxi drivers who same scenario... tested positive after being admitted for severe pneumonia but who all worked while showing symptoms...
And it goes on and on...

The only thing (besides being able to revert the country to pre war martial law) on the government's minds is the Olympics.
If they can keep the 'numbers' down by not testing until someone presents with severe pneumonia, then they won't have to cancel the games.
IMHO if they did due diligence and tested like Korea is doing, Japan would have numbers way, way higher than even Korea.

At Yure's work they have even allowed the Chinese interns to return this week (after they went back to China for the Lunar New Year) Yure says one of them looks like he lost about 20kg+
Of course many other businesses are allowing their interns to return too. Farming in Japan relies heavily on the intern program for cheap labour.
We have stopped eating raw vegetables. Anything that comes into the house is sprayed with 75% alcohol.
Yure comes home from work and sprays himself down (his coat, his shoes (soles of shoes) his hands etc then his socks when he steps out of his shoes. Then he goes to the bathroom area, strips off and puts his clothes directly into the washing machine and gets into the shower.

Even with all these precautions, I have no doubt that it is just a matter of time before we get it.
I plan to do my best to pull through when we do.

 

[Free]

 

[Roxanne Blue]

OK, check my math.

We're talking about 70% of 7 billion people contracting Covid-19 over some as yet-determined amount of time, so 4.9 billion infected. Even with a fatality rate in the range of 1 to 2 per cent, that would be 49 to 98 million dead. That's more than died in the entirety of WWII.

And, we have the least prepared government the Trump anti-science administration could arrange to manage this.