Tornado Alley Is Moving

[Cristiano]

This video explores a significant shift in tornado activity in the United States, documenting how the traditional "Tornado Alley" in the Great Plains is changing while a new, more dangerous risk emerges further east in the Mid-South.

Key Takeaways:

• The Shift: Atmospheric scientists, including Victor Gensini, have identified a clear, long-term trend (1:11-1:47) showing a decline in tornado frequency in the Great Plains, contrasted by an increase in regions like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
• Why it's happening: The shift is driven by changes in the "cap"—a layer of hot, dry air (5:16). As the American Southwest gets hotter, this cap strengthens in the west, suppressing storms. Simultaneously, a warming Gulf of Mexico is fueling the Mid-South with extreme moisture, providing the instability needed to break through the cap and create powerful supercells (5:41-6:10).
• The Increased Danger: The new, eastward risk is significantly more lethal for three reasons:
• Speed: These storms often move at 60-70 mph, compared to much slower storms in the Plains (7:03-7:13).
• Nocturnal Risk: Unlike the traditional region, storms in the Southeast can occur anytime, day or night (7:46-8:01). Nocturnal tornadoes are roughly twice as deadly because they are often invisible to residents (8:01-8:14).
• Population Density: The shift is moving into more densely populated, built-up areas, increasing the likelihood of encountering homes and infrastructure (8:45-9:07).
• Preparedness: Experts emphasize that residents must shift from an assumption of safety to active preparation, such as having a plan, staying out of vehicles, and seeking shelter in small, interior rooms on the lowest floor (9:34-10:13).

 

[Soen Eber]

I wonder how the building codes stack up, great plains vs upper south?

 

[Noodles]

I just want to add that here in central Illinois, the westher definitely has seemed different thelast few years as well. I have been wondering if its a Climate Change shift.

 

[Casey Pelous]

I wonder how the building codes stack up, great plains vs upper south?

I wonder what insurers are thinking.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

THANKS for posting this! It makes a lot of sense, since my city has had a very abnormally high number of tornado warnings this year. Getting tired of it...

 

[Beebo Brink]

From everything I've read about climate change within the last year or so, we're approaching -- or have already passed -- some critical tipping points in climate factors. It's impossible to accurately predict the pace and trajectory of those changes given that we're in new territory.

Two of the major dangers that are looming are the Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) and AMOC circulation current in the Atlantic. Our climate will become much more volatile after those events.

The former is expected in the 2030s, but as in all things climate related these days, it could all too easily happen "faster than expected." The loss of sea ice albedo is probably not going to be steady decline.

The collapse of AMOC is still highly debated. Will it happen? If so, when? If so, will it really be as bad as we fear? The very latest research is... not good.

 

[Lori Claremont]

What scares me is, it seems like every time the climate scientists make a prediction of what coming they are consistently wrong: On the optimistic side. If feels like every prediction has come true, but far earlier than predicted.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

What scares me is, it seems like every time the climate scientists make a prediction of what coming they are consistently wrong: On the optimistic side. If feels like every prediction has come true, but far earlier than predicted.

I think a number of predictions have turned out better such as rising sea levels. ....but we'll get there at this rate. Most major industrial powers have basically decided to stop pretending to give a shit, so it's likely to accelerate again.

 

[Govi]

“Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore.”

 

[Free]

“Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore.”

 

[Khamon]

I wonder what insurers are thinking.

Our twenty-six year policy covered tornado damage that occurred in January of 2023 then didn't renew that summer because the company ceased home coverage in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia.

ETA: I believe they also "left" Arkansas but not the Texas. Our adjuster, over the months that he worked with us, was traveling to a new SE storm site every few days chasing high winds, flooding, and tornados the likes of which he'd never seen in the area. Our final claim was worth about twice what we paid for the house in 1997. They may have totaled it if it hadn't been so sturdily built a hundred plus years ago.

 

[Beebo Brink]

I think a number of predictions have turned out better such as rising sea levels. ....

Hmmm. Not sure what gave you that impression. So far sea levels are rising as predicted, but those predictions were based on assumptions that were far too optimistic about Arctic and Antarctic glaciers. It turns out that the waters beneath ice shelves are warming Much Faster Than Expected TM. Which means the ice shelves are becoming destabilized ahead of schedule.

One of the messaging problems that seems to land entirely wrong with listeners is the "by 2100" time span. People seem to focus on the "dire" part -- 10-20 feet of sea level rise -- and totally ignore the time frame of that rise. Ten years go by and no one can see the difference, so they assume the predictions were wrong or exaggerated. Folks, we still have 75 years to go on that prediction, with rapid acceleration the closer you get to 2100. Ice shelves don't slow erode to nothing; they slowly erode to a point of fragility, and then the whole freaking thing shatters. So it's going to be a series of stair step increases, not a smoothly sloping incline.

 

[GoblinCampFollower]

Hmmm. Not sure what gave you that impression. So far sea levels are rising as predicted, but those predictions were based on assumptions that were far too optimistic about Arctic and Antarctic glaciers. It turns out that the waters beneath ice shelves are warming Much Faster Than Expected TM. Which means the ice shelves are becoming destabilized ahead of schedule.

One of the messaging problems that seems to land entirely wrong with listeners is the "by 2100" time span. People seem to focus on the "dire" part -- 10-20 feet of sea level rise -- and totally ignore the time frame of that rise. Ten years go by and no one can see the difference, so they assume the predictions were wrong or exaggerated. Folks, we still have 75 years to go on that prediction, with rapid acceleration the closer you get to 2100. Ice shelves don't slow erode to nothing; they slowly erode to a point of fragility, and then the whole freaking thing shatters. So it's going to be a series of stair step increases, not a smoothly sloping incline.

I looked into this, and I think you are right. What gave me that impression is that some bad science communication led many people (myself included) to believe the levels would rise much faster than what the scientific predictions actually stated.

 

[Casey Pelous]

Much Faster Than Expected TM.

That company's products suck. One BECAUSE I CAN'T GIVE THEM ZERO.

 

[Beebo Brink]

What scares me is, it seems like every time the climate scientists make a prediction of what coming they are consistently wrong: On the optimistic side. If feels like every prediction has come true, but far earlier than predicted.

James Hansen was often derided as a wild-eye alarmist for predicting the most outlying scenario for the pace and intensity of climate change.

Turns out that even Hansen was too conservative.

tl:dr - Ooops.

 

[Noodles]

I don't even think rising sea levels are the biggest problem. Its the heating around the equator to the point where it becomes uninhabitable and unable to grow anything.