...rise of Bernie Sanders...not directly tied to the rise of progressive values. ...overlap between Sanders and Trump that has more to do with a perception of him as a disrupter and outsider; he serves as a focal point for inchoate anger at the establishment
It is both, and I've been saying so for four years.
You'all seem to be fond of the political compass. It purports to plot your position, and the positions of various political figures, on
two axis: left/right and libertarian/authoritarian. You seem to accept this as a thing that just
is. There are actually many axis, and to the degree that they distinguish people, some are more prominent and useful than others. What happened in 2016 is that a new axis came to prominence, or at least made itself known to be important: establishment/disrupter. On that axis, Trump and Sanders
ran on the same side.
I've said that Trump can't legitimately be said to be an outsider when he is a billionaire TV star real estate developer who had the Clitnons at his wedding. But I suppose
politically, he actually is an outsider. He's not in
that club.
I'd still argue that the vast majority of Sanders supporters are in it for policy. It's just that his progressive policy is also disruptive. I was following the Trump subreddit at the time Sanders lost the nom and I watched as a minority of Sanders supporters who were in it just for the disruption arrived and announced themselves. That movement already happened. There isn't a grand swath of Sanders supporters left to do that again.
I keep telling you that there is not a candidate running who is as divisive as Clinton so there is not a risk of a large Sanders defection to Trump. I actually see the likelihood of the reverse happening if Sanders is the nom, as he is the more credible disrupter. Hopefully Democrats will start to run on Trump's failed promises, as there is an opportunity to discredit him as a disrupter. But not if the Democrats run an establishment candidate.