Coronavirus Updates

Sovereignty

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If only I read German, but translate.com looks reasonable.

According to Bauer, more than half of the world's vaccine doses are expected to be transported by air freight – simply because of speed and reliability.The Corona pandemic has caused disruption sours in global pharmaceutical supply chains, as air freight capacity has not been sufficient due to suspensions and suspensions of passenger flights.Bauer: "Luckily, some organizations are working to ensure that the best possible logistical arrangements are taken before vaccine certification and subsequent shipment.The challenge is enormous." Production of the vaccine is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2021.Airports need to start assessing how they could be involved in this unprecedented distribution operation.According to Bauer, the cost of the largest airlift cannot be estimated at this time.
 
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Casey Pelous

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If only I read German, but translate.com looks reasonable.

I don't know if it is the translation or not, but something's goofy there.

First, where are they going to find these 8,000 jumbo jets? I realize Boeing isn't the only airplane maker, but they've only made about 1,500 747's in all the time they've been making them, with some 788 still in service. Lump in every operational airplane that could reasonably be called a "jumbo jet" and I still don't think you'll reach 8,000.

Besides, it doesn't take 8,000 planes to make 15,000 flights! The Berlin Airlift involved about 300 planes, 277,000 flights and moved over 2,000,000 tons of supplies.

.

Well, I'd Googled that much, I had to know ... how much stuff can a jumbo jet carry?

Turns out a 747 can haul about five semi-trucks full of cargo. If we give up half of the space for "special cooling equipment", that's still 2.5 semi-trucks needed per load, and those need to have the special cooling equipment, too.

I think some aviation industry consultant needs to grease his slide rule!
 

Plurabelle Laszlo

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I don't know if it is the translation or not, but something's goofy there.

First, where are they going to find these 8,000 jumbo jets? I realize Boeing isn't the only airplane maker, but they've only made about 1,500 747's in all the time they've been making them, with some 788 still in service. Lump in every operational airplane that could reasonably be called a "jumbo jet" and I still don't think you'll reach 8,000.

Besides, it doesn't take 8,000 planes to make 15,000 flights! The Berlin Airlift involved about 300 planes, 277,000 flights and moved over 2,000,000 tons of supplies.
Lost in translation - the article says they would need the shipping volume of 8.000 Boeing 747 to ship one dosis of vaccine to every human being on earth - not that they would need 8.000 airplanes to do so.
 

danielravennest

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Lost in translation - the article says they would need the shipping volume of 8.000 Boeing 747 to ship one dosis of vaccine to every human being on earth - not that they would need 8.000 airplanes to do so.
There are around 25,000 commercial jets in service. Most are smaller than a 747, and most are passenger rather than cargo, but I figure a few flights per plane will cover the transportation needs for the vaccine. Even passenger planes have cargo holds. And given the pandemic, there are a lot of surplus planes not flying right now.
 

Kamilah Hauptmann

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There are around 25,000 commercial jets in service. Most are smaller than a 747, and most are passenger rather than cargo, but I figure a few flights per plane will cover the transportation needs for the vaccine. Even passenger planes have cargo holds. And given the pandemic, there are a lot of surplus planes not flying right now.
Let's call it... The Aviation Iditarod! :D
 

Sovereignty

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Lost in translation - the article says they would need the shipping volume of 8.000 Boeing 747 to ship one dosis of vaccine to every human being on earth - not that they would need 8.000 airplanes to do so.
I like the Santa Claus version: everything gets delivered in one night.
 

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Drugmaker AstraZeneca said Monday that late-stage trials showed its COVID-19 vaccine is highly effective [~90%], buoying the prospects of a relatively cheap, easy-to-store product that may become the vaccine of choice for the developing world.

The results are based on an interim analysis of trials in the U.K. and Brazil of a vaccine developed by Oxford University and manufactured by AstraZeneca. No hospitalizations or severe cases of COVID-19 were reported in those receiving the vaccine.

AstraZeneca is the third major drug company to report late-stage data for a potential COVID-19 vaccine as the world waits for scientific breakthroughs that will end a pandemic that has pummeled the world economy and led to 1.4 million deaths. But unlike the others, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine doesn’t have to be stored at freezer temperatures, making it potentially easier to distribute, especially in developing countries.
 

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A highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine has delivered some encouraging — but head-scratching — results. The vaccine developed by the University of Oxford, UK, and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca was found to be, on average, 70% effective in a preliminary analysis of phase III trial data, the developers announced in a press release on 23 November.

But the analysis found a striking difference in efficacy, depending on the amount of vaccine delivered to a participant. A regimen consisting of two full doses given a month apart looked to be just 62% effective. But, surprisingly, participants who received a lower amount of the vaccine in a first dose and then the full amount in the second dose were 90% less likely to develop COVID, compared with participants in the placebo arm.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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This looks encouraging. The fact Johnson's enthusiastic about it means nothing, of course, but the fact that Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, also feels confident in expressing what is, for him, an uncharacteristically optimistic view about the future does mean quite a lot, I think


Evernote link because paywall
 

danielravennest

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Employers consider making COVID vaccine mandatory

With promising news from three COVID-19 vaccine trials showing 90% to 95% efficacy, employers are now weighing whether they should simply encourage their employees to get vaccinated or make it mandatory.
If employers *and* schools require it, we can get enough people vaccinated to overcome the virus. One way to encourage employers is to tell them you will not patronize their business if they are "disease lovers" (feel free to come up with other pejorative descriptions).
 

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Sorry for the double post, but one thing I want to reiterate from months ago...

I am hugely pro-vax. Under normal circumstances, you can show me a vaccine, and I'll take it. Vaccines have been one of the most important inventions humans have ever created. That said...

These COVID-19 vaccines will not be safe. Why?

First of all, you have to understand that a vaccine normally takes 15-20 years to develop. This NYT article that describes the process takes a relatively optimistic view of the situation and says it would normally take 13 years to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, which seems reasonable. People are more motivated to cure COVID-19 than to cure some rare ailment that nobody in rich countries gets.

That NYT article also goes into the corner cutting that they are doing to develop this vaccine within a year. I don't mind cutting corners when lives are not on the line, but when they are, the corners need to be cut competently. You need a great deal of skill and professionalism to cut corners properly in medicine. Do we have the skill and professionalism in the American for-profit healthcare industry? No. Demonstrably no. Not one little bit!

I could go into a long history of failures in the industry (Bayer is evil), but lets look at a recent one...

Look at how they fucked up when they rushed the corona tests. Now they want us to trust them to rush a vaccine? No way.

Why is this so dangerous?

Best case failure scenario: These vaccines may simply not work. Then we have a bunch of people running around spreading corona, taking risks they never would have taken without the vaccine, because they think they are immune. Corona spikes more, things go downhill, and nobody trusts them when they actually come up with a vaccine that works.

Worst case failure scenario: The vaccine may actually infect people with COVID-19. This is not an unreasonable concern, at all. Here is a PBS documentary about Polio. It explains that the first big vaccine was the polio vaccine, and it's first rollout was a disaster, directly infecting at least 40k children with polio, because of a manufacturing error. This error was caused by Cutter labs, which is now owned by Bayer (who also deliberately infected people all over the world with AIDS, and we somehow allow that company to still exist for some reason).

That Cutter vaccine incident is why we have strict regulations on vaccine development and deployment. They just lifted those regulations. What happens next? Well, what happened last time vaccines were made without the regulations? People died.

To make matters worse, there's something like half a dozen vaccines ready for FDA approval. An expert on NPR the other day described it as a half dozen shots on goal. I see it differently. I see it as a half dozen chances to miss the goal and infect millions of people all over the world.

So maybe being first in line to get these vaccines is a really, really bad idea. Maybe you should wait a while and see how it pans out first.

How long should you wait?

I don't know. I don't think anybody can really tell you how paranoid you should be. For me, I'm thinking at least 6 months, or maybe a year. If I could, I'd wait longer, but I would like to get back to normal as soon as I can, and I would rather not be social distancing all summer again.

So it is a trade off between safety and a desire to get back to normal. Maybe your need to get back to normal really is worth the risk to you, and if that's the case, more power to ya. Good luck! Personally, I come in contact with the elderly regularly. I'm not going to risk their lives just so I can go down to the pub a couple times a week.

Whatever you decide, just make this decision with open eyes. Know the risk involved when you take a vaccine that's been under development for less than a year, because it could be a catastrophic decision.

Don't take this lightly.
 
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Kathryn Elisabeth

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Worst case failure scenario: The vaccine may actually infect people with COVID-19. This is not an unreasonable concern, at all. ...
No! Nuhuh! More No! NO!

Is a mRNA based thing.
So short version means it NOT use live virus, was alive virus, dead virus, pieces of stuff from a virus, or emotionally distraught and just won't infect a cell virus.

Instead it does a thing!
The thing is does: 1) Teaches you how to make some spike protein. 2) Spike proteins can then teach you how to fight the virus.

So.. No! Nuhuh! More No! NO! This Time I'ma SERIOUS! NO!
 

bubblesort

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No! Nuhuh! More No! NO!

Is a mRNA based thing.
So short version means it NOT use live virus, was alive virus, dead virus, pieces of stuff from a virus, or emotionally distraught and just won't infect a cell virus.

Instead it does a thing!
The thing is does: 1) Teaches you how to make some spike protein. 2) Spike proteins can then teach you how to fight the virus.

So.. No! Nuhuh! More No! NO! This Time I'ma SERIOUS! NO!
Which one? There are a half dozen vaccines ready for FDA approval right now. Are you sure not one of them uses live or dead virus particles?
 
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Kathryn Elisabeth

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Of the top 7, all but Sinovac and Sinopharm, both Chinese Vaccines.. don't use live or dead virus particles.

Is there gonna be much push for FDA to approve the vaccines made by Chinese Companies?

So.. like I said. NO.
 
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bubblesort

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Of the top 7, all but Sinovac and Sinopharm, both Chinese Vaccines.. don't use live or dead virus particles.

Is there gonna be much push for FDA to approve the vaccines made by Chinese Companies?

So.. like I said. NO.
OK, so the vaccines can't infect you with COVID-19, unless they are Chinese vaccines.

We still don't know what other side effects they might have. They did not spend enough time on development, and they won't spend enough time in manufacturing and logistics to really make them as safe as the flu vaccine I get every year. Even with human trials, they can't tell me if this vaccine will cause pink eye, or black tounge, or a stroke a year after I take it, because they did not test it that long.

Being the first in line for these vaccines is still dangerous. Weigh the risks.
 
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