Brexit.

Sid

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The EU only accepted the Switzerland construction, because that country lies so central inside the EU and is a very important transit country for the EU.
I don't think that Brussels will be willing to accept those conditions for the UK.
If the UK wants a close to the EU construction, without becoming a full member again, it will be more likely a Norway like solution.

But IMHO Britain has to come of their high horse first, thinking they can bend the agreed rules between the EU and the UK to their own likings.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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From what the specialists in international and EU trade agreements whom I follow on Twitter are saying, the idea of a "Swiss-style" agreement between the EU and the UK is a non-starter, not least because Switzerland has >100 separate agreements with the EU, all negotiated and ratified individually, and neither the EU nor the UK are going to have the time, the patience or the inclination replicate all that.

What's significant, I think, is that the idea is being floated by Rishi Sunak, who has impeccable pro-Brexit credentials, unlike Teresa May or Liz Truss, who started out pro-Remain, or Johnson, who only backed Brexit because he expected Remain to win and thought that leading the Leave campaign would cement his position as leader of the Tory Right.

It signals a major change in emphasis, and a willingness to acknowledge the reality that the UK has to cooperate with the EU, because that's in everyone's interests.

There's obviously a long way to go, and the first test will be what Sunak does about the Northern Ireland Protocol and retained EU law, but at least he's striking a welcome note of realism and disregard for the blood pressure of the ERG and the editors of the Mail and Telegraph that have been completely absent in the British government since 2016.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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You've got also take into account that the EU27 is at the moment quite busy with the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war. As consequence there will be much less willingness on EU's side to bear again with eccentric British attitudes than it used to be in the past.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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I don't expect anything to happen anytime soon -- first the British government has to compromise over the Northern Ireland Protocol, and show that it's serious about keeping to the provisions of the withdrawal agreement.

That depends on the government making it clear to the hardline anti-EU European Reform Group that they no longer have a veto over reality, and have to live in the world as it is, not the world as they would like it to be.

The Conservatives have pretty much given up on winning the next election anyway, and if the ERG want threaten to bring down the government and most of them lose their parliamentary salaries sooner rather than later, then the government is likely to call their bluff.

I am encouraged, though, that for the first time since the referendum, the government is showing signs of compromise over the EU and starting to acknowledge Britain has to trade with the EU on the EU's terms, not those of the UK.

ETA

 
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Chin Rey

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The EU only accepted the Switzerland construction, because that country lies so central inside the EU and is a very important transit country for the EU.
I don't think that Brussels will be willing to accept those conditions for the UK.
If the UK wants a close to the EU construction, without becoming a full member again, it will be more likely a Norway like solution.
Both Switzerland and Norway are members of EFTA and the agreements the two have with EU aren't actually that different. Switzerland had a referendum about joining the European Economic Area and 50.3% of the people voted against which was a bit inconvenient since EEA was supposed to include all of EU and EFTA. The solution they came up with was to negotiate a series of separate trade deals which added up to something very similar to EEA.
 

Sid

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Both Switzerland and Norway are members of EFTA and the agreements the two have with EU aren't actually that different. Switzerland had a referendum about joining the European Economic Area and 50.3% of the people voted against which was a bit inconvenient since EEA was supposed to include all of EU and EFTA. The solution they came up with was to negotiate a series of separate trade deals which added up to something very similar to EEA.
True, but the path to that 'same' result was hard, long winding and troublesome. That is why this most likely will not happen again in this manner with the UK.
I think the EU only went along with this process because of the geografical central position of Switzerland inside the EU territories.
The EU has learned its lesson: Never ever this way again, is the general opinion in Brussels about the Swiss route.
The outcome of new negotiations with the UK will have to be a take it or leave it package. No new negotiations and votings about every corner or bump in the road during the trip. The UK (as it stands at the moment) would only agree on the cherries on the cake and decline the rest.

If the UK wants the benefits of an EU membership again, it has to accept all the EU rules and regulations and become a full member again IMHO.
We all know from the recent past, how the much too often special snowflake positions from the UK work(ed) against moving forward for the EU.
The EU can't have those endless cherry picking attempts again IMHO.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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It's quite simple: the UK got its own trade deal, which was painfully negotiated over years. The UK didn't exactly act during that period like a reliable and trustworthy partner, and still doesn't.

The EU will not give away its benefits without the obligations. So it is take or leave for the UK: if you want the benefits, you'll have to abide the obligations, otherwise get lost.
 
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Sid

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Innula Zenovka

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To me, it is telling that there is only one vague sentence in the story about how the EU might feel about this.
But it really takes two to tango.
That's because, before the UK can start to have any sort of discussions with the EU, Sunak first has to deal with the hard-line anti-Brexit anti-EU fanatics in his own party. All this is about taking the first tentative steps towards preparing them for their inevitable confrontation with reality, which I think will probably not happen until after the next election when, unless something completely unexpected happens in the meantime, they'll be feeling shell-shocked as they try to recover from a landslide defeat and contemplate what do next, in the face of a Labour majority of around 200 (certainly not impossible unless the economy does a lot better than anyone expects).

Nothing can happen until the matter of the Northern Ireland Protocol is settled to the satisfaction of the EU, so we'll just have to wait and see how that works out.

Apart from that, and matters relating to NATO and Ukraine, the EU should just ignore the noises coming out of London -- that's all the internal drama of a slowly collapsing government, which is now at the stage in the Roadrunner cartoons where the Coyote starts to realise he ran off the edge of the cliff some time ago and the law of gravity starts to make itself felt.
 
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I would guess the UK needs to go through at least 3 more Prime Minsters before they even start. Anyone who makes a serious overture to the EU at this point will be out in a fraction of a Truss.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I would guess the UK needs to go through at least 3 more Prime Minsters before they even start. Anyone who makes a serious overture to the EU at this point will be out in a fraction of a Truss.
The next Prime Minister, I assume, will be Kier Starmer.

It's possible the Tories will panic and decide to ditch Sunak sometime next year, but their response to Jeremy Hunt's recent budget, intended to repair the damage caused by Truss and Kwarteng, suggests that they've come to accept they're going to lose the next election no matter who leads them, so their energies are best devoted to finding new jobs after they stop being MPs.

Starmer, I suspect, will take things slowly and carefully with the EU, not because he's particularly worried about alienating voters who still support Brexit (though that is certainly a concern in some areas) but because no one wants to make the UK's relations with the EU a major issue between the parties and because he realises the UK has a lot of work to do before it can re-establish itself as a serious negotiating partner, so I think he'll stick, at least initially, to trying to reach agreements in quite limited areas of particular concern that will give Brexit hardliners fits, but everyone else will see as common-sense compromises.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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Former Tory party leader and foreign secretary William Hague has an interesting take on things


Evernote link

Recent surveys, however, are pointing to more regrets: YouGov recently reported that 56 per cent of voters thought it was a bad idea to leave the EU and only 32 per cent still thought it was a good one.

This does not mean there is a public appetite to stir this divisive issue again. Most people want to see what has been decided finished off and made to work. But if, over the next few years, that 56 per cent rises and the evidence of time suggests that Britain is doing badly, the electoral landscape at a future election, in 2028 or 2029, will be very different. That would be a long enough period for the electorate to come to a judgment and, if that judgment were to be that Brexit had been a serious mistake, for materially closer links with the EU to become a very popular cause.
 
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