Brexit.

Innula Zenovka

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Ukraine, especially, and the European Union (EU) are sometimes inclined to see a terrible nightmare before them.

What if, in November 2024, American voters elect a president to the White House who decides to halt support to Kyiv, or even drastically reduces US participation in NATO? The electoral uncertainties and the show of disunity in the House of Representatives in recent weeks, as well as the risk of rising domestic tensions, should the war in the Middle East spread, are only fueling such dark thoughts.
 
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Beebo Brink

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Innula Zenovka

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Well mission accomplished, that's what the states always wanted to achieve - the EU under their dominance. And the most willing partner in crime for that were for decades the Brits. Well, and the UK's successor since Brexit happened in that area is Poland.
The article argues that the European members of NATO have relied too much on the might of the US military to make up any deficiencies in their own forces, and that, should Trump be re-elected next year and pull the US out of NATO, we're in deep trouble.

But even if Europe were to enter a war economy in the full sense of the term, as President Macron suggested in June 2022, it would still be more than a decade before it could acquire the conventional military potential of the United States. If we were to add to this the US nuclear deterrent potential, the basis of the global deterrence set out in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, the defense expenditure of each European state would have to amount, according to some estimates, to 6% or 7% of GDP, from the current 2%. Needless to say, neither the governments nor the public would be keen to do so, especially given the concomitant need for cuts in areas like social support and health.

It is therefore far from certain that Europe alone, even when including the UK and Norway, could withstand high-intensity conventional aggression from Russia. France, whose nuclear strike force is independent, would have to drastically revise its nuclear doctrine, and London, whose deterrent is integrated into NATO (and currently being updated at a cost of around $38bn) , would have to do the same.
Are you suggesting that the US, assisted first by the UK and latterly by Poland, pressured the EU into reducing its military expenditure over the years, in order to better bring the EU under its hegemony? That is, France and Germany wanted to spend more on defence but the UK and the US prevented them from so doing?

That's not my recollection. I know there were arguments about having a common EU military, but those were about command structures, not the size of individual countries forces, weren't they?
 

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The article argues that the European members of NATO have relied too much on the might of the US military to make up any deficiencies in their own forces, and that, should Trump be re-elected next year and pull the US out of NATO, we're in deep trouble.
We have to remember that the combined conventional military forces of the European NATO members is far superior to any single nation in the world except for USA. It was, however, not made to operate outside its own territory, including in non-NATO european countries like Ukraine, and of course, if push came to show, there would be no absolute guarantee that all the nations would show up and do their part.
 

Innula Zenovka

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We have to remember that the combined conventional military forces of the European NATO members is far superior to any single nation in the world except for USA. It was, however, not made to operate outside its own territory, including in non-NATO european countries like Ukraine, and of course, if push came to show, there would be no absolute guarantee that all the nations would show up and do their part.
Yes, but there's also a problem with military aid for Ukraine. I don't know about other European countries but certainly in the UK, which has been quite generous with its donations of matériel to Ukraine, there are concerns that our military's reserves have been badly depleted


And today I saw this


Certainly if the US pulls out of NATO, or even just cuts off aid to Ukraine, everyone on our side of the Atlantic is in trouble. But I don't see how this situation has been engineered by the US, the UK or Poland.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Out with the old, in with the even older: Rishi Sunak has fired Suella Braverman as foreign secretary.

David Cameron, the former PM who initiated the Brexit refererendum, is going to be the new foreign secretary under PM Rishi Sunak. This is one of the rare occasions of a former PM making a comeback into government in the UK.

 

Innula Zenovka

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The British Foreign Secretary who wasn't a member of the House of Commons was Peter Carrington, who was Margaret Thatcher's Foreign Secretary until he resigned in 1982, after Argentina invaded the Falklands. Cameron's appointment has alarmed the more right-wing members of the Parliamentary Conservative Party, who distrust him over the pro-China policies his government pursued.

It's significant, I think, that Sunak has had to look outside Parliament, let alone his current cabinet, for this appointment -- it says a lot about how little talent and experience is available to him. That's very much Boris Johnson's fault, after he expelled many able and experienced MPs over Brexit and then deliberately appointed his ministers on the basis of their loyalty rather than their ability. The current public inquiry into the goverment's handling of Covid makes it horribly plain how disfunctional and out of their depth the then cabinet were, and things haven't improved since.

ETA

 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Speaking about external talent - maybe Nigel Farage feels like joining the Tories again? Sunak has not ruled out letting Farage back into the Tories.

And Farage said he will be the Tory leader by 2026, taking over the Tories would require 3 years.

So maybe PM Nigel Farage still within this decade, who knows...

 
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Innula Zenovka

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Speaking about external talent - maybe Nigel Farage feels like joining the Tories again? Sunak has not ruled out letting Farage back into the Tories.

And Farage said he will be the Tory leader by 2026, taking over the Tories would require 3 years.

So maybe PM Nigel Farage still within this decade, who knows...

First he would have to be elected to parliament, of course, and then come at least second in a vote by Conservative members of parliament, before going on to be elected by members of the Conservative Party nationally.

I don't see it happening, since unless he is allowed to join the Conservatives sometime in the next twelve months, get himself adopted as a candidate in a winnable constituency and get elected, either the matter will be in the hands of Sunak's successor, who presumably won't want Farage in parliament trying to take over, or Sunak will somehow have managed to turn round his party's fortunes and win the next election against all the odds, and there won't be a vacancy for a new leader for the foreseeable future.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Farage gets 1.5 million pounds for going to the jungle (around 1.9 million US$), so he's not cheap.

 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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A different type of Brexit: Argentina's new president Javier Milei wants to have the Falkland islands back from the UK through diplomatic negotiations.

He states: "Argentina has non-negotiable sovereignty over the Falklands." In a referendum in 2013 the vast majority of the islands' population voted to continue being British.

Milei hailed Thatcher during his campaign as "one the great leaders in the history of humanity." Furthermore: "We had a war – that we lost – and now we have to make every effort to recover the islands through diplomatic channels."

His advisor suggested a process of returning the islands like Hong Kong underwent to China.

 

Khamon

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Yes because his audience are wealthy Argentinians looking to exploit more cash and wealthy British politicians that will accept the payoff.
 

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Is this Brexit-adjacent?
 
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