Brexit.

Tigger

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If a deal is entirely down to the whim of Trump it would be hard to rely on it lasting more than a few days before he changes his mind.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Yes, well aside that I really do wonder what convinces the Brexiteers that the UK without the EU would have more power and influence to negotiate better deals than being within the EU. They are overestimating their own importance standing alone on their own quite much so.

It must be the idea that the EU is worse in negotiating than they are and/or too constraining; or something like that.
 
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Chin Rey

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It must be the idea that the EU is worse in negotiating than they are and/or too constraining; or something like that.
More likely they see negotation as a process where they dictate the terms and sub-humans at the other side of the table do as they're told.

I may be stating the obvious here but this is important to anybody who wants to understand Brexit and also the policies of Boris Johnson's government:
The British Empire is 'something to be proud of' | YouGov

59% of the British people regard the British Empire to be something to be proud of. 49% believe the colonies are better off than they would have been if they hadn't been colonized.
This is totally insane of course, yet they geuninely believe it. When half the population and the entire government suffer from a collective delusion of an epic scale, there's no wonder they get it wrong.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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ORDERRRR is back in fighting mode: should PM Johnson try to circumvent the House of Commons by closing it, he'll push back with everything he has:

The House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, has said he will “fight with every breath in my body” to stop Boris Johnsonfrom proroguing parliament to force through a no-deal Brexit without the consent of MPs.

Bercow, who has previously said he did not believe it would be possible to suspend parliament to force through no deal, gave his strongest signal yet he was prepared to personally intervene to stop prorogation.

Speaking at the Edinburgh festival fringe, the Speaker said he would insist on the right of parliament to continue to sit and debate. “The one thing I feel strongly about is that the House of Commons must have its way,” he said. “And if there is an attempt to circumvent, to bypass or – God forbid – to close down parliament, that is anathema to me.

“I will fight with every breath in my body to stop that happening. We cannot have a situation in which parliament is shut down. We are a democratic society and parliament will be heard.

“Nobody is going to get away, as far as I’m concerned, with stopping that happening. Nobody should be afraid to say what he or she thinks.”
Asked by an audience member if parliament was able to stop a no-deal Brexit, Bercow replied: “Yes.”

Speaking in the Commons in June, Bercow warned the then-Tory leadership candidates that prorogation was not an option. “That is simply not going to happen. It is just so blindingly obvious that it almost doesn’t need to be stated, but apparently, it does and therefore I have done,” he told MPs.


 

Tigger

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Yes, well aside that I really do wonder what convinces the Brexiteers that the UK without the EU would have more power and influence to negotiate better deals than being within the EU. They are overestimating their own importance standing alone on their own quite much so.

It must be the idea that the EU is worse in negotiating than they are and/or too constraining; or something like that.
There is a reasonable argument to be made that says the EU negotiates a deal which represents the best they can get for the interests of the entirety of it's membership which may not necessarily be the same thing as the best possible deal that could be made for the interests of a single member country.

Of course, that doesn't mean that the UK could get that perfect deal on their own.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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Yes, of course this might be a thing. Then again the UK within the EU has much more impact than the UK being on its own, so I'll expect most countries like America of pulling the UK over the barrel, because the UK is going to be desperate for such deals and need to rely on it.
 

Sid

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I think in the long term the UK could be better of with a No Deal Brexit, then being a voiceless follower of the EU rules like Norway,
But the price that has to be payed most likely by the current generation makes it a bad idea.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush or as we say in the Dutch version: A bird in the hand is better then ten in the air.

On top of that I think the UK is better of as a full member of the EU to start with.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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No idea what this will amount to, but it looks as if the battle lines are being drawn up. Twenty recalcitrant Tory MPs can certainly cause Johnson some serious headaches if he tries to go for a no-deal Brexit, though I suspect what's happening at the moment is simply Johnson setting the stage for the early General Election he's promised not to hold (as did his predecessor, of course, back in 2017).
 
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Chin Rey

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I think in the long term the UK could be better of with a No Deal Brexit, then being a voiceless follower of the EU rules like Norway,
To say Norway is a voiceless follower of the EU rules is an oversimplification. The EEA agreement is rather complicated but the most basic principle is that the EFTA countries are bound by the existing EU regulations related to the common market and the Schengen Area but not to any of the few regulation not related to either and any changes have to be ratified by the Norwegian parliament before they apply to Norway. One very relevant example how we're not hogtied to EU is that we are one of the few countries that already have a post-Brexit trade agreement with the UK in place.

There are also several other factors that give Norway far more influence over EU policies than the formal agreement between EU and EFTA indicates. There's a very good relationship between the two with strong mutual trust, we're so important to each other in so many way that one will think twice before pissing the other off. Generally Norway's interests are very well aligned with those of the other Nordic countries and usually with Germany, the Netherlands and the Baltic nations too. That gives us some strong allies within the EU.

There are also sveeral factors not directly related to EU. Norway pays more per capita to NATO's common defence than any other nation (USA included). NATO's secretary general is Norwegian and so is the Council of Europe's. The fact that the Norwegian National Pension Fund controls 2.5% of EU's stock market is something that's rarely mentioned and, of course, never ever used for political purposes but it's certainly somthing everybody are well aware of.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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PM BoJo answered citizens' questions today on a live stream on Facebook, because the HoC is on vacation. And he's playing the blame game on the HoC and EU again:

“There’s a terrible collaboration, as it were, going on between people who think they can block Brexit in parliament and our European friends,” he said.
“And our European friends are not moving in their willingness to compromise, they’re not compromising at all on the withdrawal agreement even though it’s been thrown out three times, they’re sticking to every letter, every comma of the withdrawal agreement – including the backstop – because they still think Brexit can be blocked in parliament.

“There’s a terrible collaboration, as it were, going on between people who think they can block Brexit in parliament and our European friends,” he said.
“And our European friends are not moving in their willingness to compromise, they’re not compromising at all on the withdrawal agreement even though it’s been thrown out three times, they’re sticking to every letter, every comma of the withdrawal agreement – including the backstop – because they still think Brexit can be blocked in parliament.


 

Sid

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EU27 is not the North Pole, so Santa doesn't live here dear friend BoZo BoJo.
So no presents to be expected, not even for the people on the good list.
 

Sid

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To say Norway is a voiceless follower of the EU rules is an oversimplification.
Of course it is to simple put. But my post wasn't exactly to explain the Norwegian situation, but more about how it would affect the UK.

My idea is, that the Norwegian status towards the EU is great for a relative small economy. The Dutch, Belgium, Danish full members influence within the EU is almost as limited in the end, but they have votes and a say inside the EU.
Brittain as one of the main economies of the EU has a much larger voice then when they change to the the Norwegian or Swiss model.
De facto, a British NO meant always that the plan did not pass or that there were exceptions arranged for the UK.
Britain becoming a country with the same status as Norway would mean a lot less influence for the UK than they have now and they still have to follow all or almost all EU rules, regulations and international agreements.

That's why I think that the UK would be better off with a no deal in the long term.
But it might take a whole generation before these advantages would show.
The current generations will have to pay the price of the divorce.
So most likely they are best of by simply staying in the EU.
 

Kara Spengler

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PM BoJo answered citizens' questions today on a live stream on Facebook, because the HoC is on vacation.
Sign that it is getting too late in the day: I took awhile to parse HoC and when something resolved it was "House of Cards".
 
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Innula Zenovka

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That's just another unicorn.

It's not simply a matter of passing one vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. It has to be enacted into law, which means an extremely lengthy and contentious bill has to go through both houses of Parliament relatively unscathed, which just wouldn't happen, even if Johnson and his entire cabinet agreed to drop their opposition to the backstop.

I think Kinnock must know that, and that this is yet more political theatre, partly intended to show how unreasonable Johnson is, and partly to give cover to some Labour MPs in Leave-backing areas.