Brexit.

Innula Zenovka

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The BBC, who are often criticised -- sometimes with good reason, to my mind -- for what seems to be a pro-Brexit bias in their selection of panelists for current affairs shows (and a shocking willingness, over the years, to give free publicity to Nigel Farage) have produced a broadcast tonight that addresses the government's mishandling of Brexit:


It's to be broadcast tonight.

 

Kara Spengler

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LOL! I had someone give a sentence fragment on twitter from PMQ and complain about it. I said that it is hard to judge their complaint either way without context. They wanted to go 'AHA' that May asked a question but I had explained sometimes in English you need clarifications as a statement would not do (somewhat like the classic of "when did you stop beating your wife" where a fallacious premise is being made).

The person tried to brush me off with saying I was not a brit so did not know how their parliament works. I responded that I probably know more about all 3 things in question: the mechanics of the US government, the UK government, and english linguistics than most random people. Sometimes I REALLY hate interacting with random people on twitter.
 
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Kara Spengler

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The BBC, who are often criticised -- sometimes with good reason, to my mind -- for what seems to be a pro-Brexit bias in their selection of panelists for current affairs shows (and a shocking willingness, over the years, to give free publicity to Nigel Farage) have produced a broadcast tonight that addresses the government's mishandling of Brexit:


It's to be broadcast tonight.

That seems to be a problem all over the world. A politician does something outlandish and they get free airtime as a result. I really wish it being a campaign contribution was enforced more often, or at least give equal time to their opposition. The same goes for discussing issues, they get more eyeballs with someone ranting about whatever than they do with having a policy wonk (well, except from other policy wonks).

Or failing that someone pass wind at both Farange and donnie any time it happens no matter who was the beneficiary. :)
 

Innula Zenovka

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This looks encouraging, in that the size of the majority is so much larger than it was on the previous vote (which stipulated regular updates to Parliament but not that they had to be delivered while Parliament was sitting (rather than in reports emailed to MPs while parliament was prorogued).


It's a welcome reminder that, outside the world of reality show politics and fantasy Brexit, people can still count and parliamentary numbers still matter.
 

Kara Spengler

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This looks encouraging, in that the size of the majority is so much larger than it was on the previous vote (which stipulated regular updates to Parliament but not that they had to be delivered while Parliament was sitting (rather than in reports emailed to MPs while parliament was prorogued).


It's a welcome reminder that, outside the world of reality show politics and fantasy Brexit, people can still count and parliamentary numbers still matter.
This is from last week but I found what they did with these amendments amusing. :) Too bad about the one that was not chosen.

 
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Sid

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It seems that the EU will let the UK leave without a deal this time.
This ain't exactly the words politicians and diplomats would use in public if they thought there is still some future in the negotiations, even if it were just for jet another extension. The EU is clearly done.
 

Kara Spengler

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It seems that the EU will let the UK leave without a deal this time.
This ain't exactly the words politicians and diplomats would use in public if they thought there is still some future in the negotiations, even if it were just for jet another extension. The EU is clearly done.
I am really hoping they do not grant another extension unless it is seriously long term (decades at the shortest) with no option to exit early. A politician will not solve a problem, any problem, as soon as you leave open the option of kicking it down the road.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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It seems that the EU will let the UK leave without a deal this time.
This ain't exactly the words politicians and diplomats would use in public if they thought there is still some future in the negotiations, even if it were just for jet another extension. The EU is clearly done.
Yes, it's up to Parliament now to stop him. The EU has done all it can -- it's up to both sides in the British Parliament to face facts and stop playing games with fantasy solutions.

Maybe this is Johnson's plan -- get into the record books as having been PM (and possibly the last leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party), and then not actually to have to do any of the hard work in managing a no-deal Brexit and go back to the EU begging for terms a month or so later, having by that time also entered the history books as the charlatan who wrecked Christmas for the country, thus ushering in the start of years of hardship and disruption, because he would have delivered Brexit but the big boys broke it and ran away.

Also Canis cibum me Duis congue, eheu, as he would doubtless have expressed it at Eton and Balliol.

After all, it's worked for him pretty well so far.

ETA:

 
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Grandma Bates

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The BBC, who are often criticised -- sometimes with good reason, to my mind -- for what seems to be a pro-Brexit bias in their selection of panelists for current affairs shows (and a shocking willingness, over the years, to give free publicity to Nigel Farage) have produced a broadcast tonight that addresses the government's mishandling of Brexit:


It's to be broadcast tonight.

After reading through the article at the BBC, they present the ten factors as if they were discrete, unrelated events. The article does not dispel the notion of a pro-Brexit bias when they still do not recognize that most of those factors are intertwined and inevitable results of a deeply divided people with no common vision of what Brexit means. The BBC still refuses to acknowledge that the very notion of Brexit is vague and meaningless, and it is based on lies from opportunistic parasites whose primary motive is to gain power and money in the resulting chaos.

An uncritical reading of the BBC's list would make it seem that the real problem is incompetence on the part of the officials tasked with realizing Brexit. The real problem is that as soon as any of the real implications of Brexit emerge there is a greatly diminished political will to continue, and most of the factors listed in the article become an impenetrable barrier that were always standing in the way. This will not change when the leadership of the Conservative party changes. The only thing that has changed is the amount of time left to do anything.
 

Innula Zenovka

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After reading through the article at the BBC, they present the ten factors as if they were discrete, unrelated events. The article does not dispel the notion of a pro-Brexit bias when they still do not recognize that most of those factors are intertwined and inevitable results of a deeply divided people with no common vision of what Brexit means. The BBC still refuses to acknowledge that the very notion of Brexit is vague and meaningless, and it is based on lies from opportunistic parasites whose primary motive is to gain power and money in the resulting chaos.

An uncritical reading of the BBC's list would make it seem that the real problem is incompetence on the part of the officials tasked with realizing Brexit. The real problem is that as soon as any of the real implications of Brexit emerge there is a greatly diminished political will to continue, and most of the factors listed in the article become an impenetrable barrier that were always standing in the way. This will not change when the leadership of the Conservative party changes. The only thing that has changed is the amount of time left to do anything.
Oh, I agree that the whole project of Brexit, at least as executed in this case, was misconceived from the outset -- well before the referendum -- in that it was all about not being in the EU rather than about what alternatives might be both preferable and achievable.

However, given the way the discussion has been conducted over here, and still is being conducted by the campaigns of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, you'd think that the only failing has been that parliament has not "believed" hard enough in Brexit, because Theresa May lacked sufficient determination and conviction to see it through.

So in this context, I think it's useful to have it laid out that this attempt at Brexit has been botched at every step of the way from the referendum onwards because it was approached by HMG in so unserious a way.

That's a very good reminder to have as we now enter the final, and most dangerous, stage in this part of the game.
 

Govi

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Let "Dog Won't" Hunt join Bloody Stupid Johnson in the Brexit lexicon?
 

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Oh, I agree that the whole project of Brexit, at least as executed in this case, was misconceived from the outset -- well before the referendum -- in that it was all about not being in the EU rather than about what alternatives might be both preferable and achievable.
I've probably said it before in this thread but there is a fundamental problem when people are defined by what they are against rather than by what they are for.
It's one of the fundamental principles of good education: try to avoid telling your students what not to do because you'll never know what they'll do instead.

The opposite is the basis of the divide and conquer strategy all populistic movements are built on. Let's say there are three options, A, B and C and none of them is supported by a majority. And since I'm talking about populism here, let's say C is an extremist option with little support while A and B are fairly close by comparasion and both have substantial support. If you are a C supporter fighting for your own cause, you're bound to loose. But if you instead present yourself as an opponent to A, you may be able to trick many of the B's to believe you're on their side et voilà! Instant populism!
It doesn't last of course. Sooner or later it will dawn on the B's that they've been duped and besides, since C is supported by uncompromising extremists, it will inevitably turn out that the one thing C1 and C2 really agree about, is that they can't stand the filthy C3's. And, of course, half the C's see themselves as the one and only leader of the whole movement.

Brexit is a stereotypical populist movement and this is exactly what happened to it. It started to break down the moment the votes at the referendum were cast and by now it's in shambles. I think this is the real reason why Brexit seems to be failing.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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Brexit is a stereotypical populist movement and this is exactly what happened to it. It started to break down the moment the votes at the referendum were cast and by now it's in shambles. I think this is the real reason why Brexit seems to be failing.
Nope; the reason why it is failing is that the wrong question has been asked right from the beginning.

Let's say there would be a referendum on "should our country reduce it's CO2 emissions by 50% until the end of 2030?" - chances are high, that this will get the majority vote.

Then this would go into parliament, politicians struggle with on how to implement this, the costs became visible, so the politicians decide to just scratch it due to the fact that they want to become reelected, and so it would fail.

The underlying problem is that politics is always happening between the wishes of the people and what can be done, so most of the time the result is some sort of compromise.

If you want to get meaningful outcomes of many referendums, you've got to include the important context right from the beginning, like implementing this decision would mean in average X% more expenses for the average household a year. If asked that way and getting the majority, not much resistance is to be feared.

Brexit it not falling apart due to the politicans being incompetent; it is falling apart because the referendum was flawed from the beginning. It was asked in a way that completely ignored how politics do work.
 
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Kara Spengler

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having by that time also entered the history books as the charlatan who wrecked Christmas for the country
I had not even thought of the timing. I was just distracted by it being on Samhain.
 

Chin Rey

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Nope; the reason why it is failing is that the wrong question has been asked right from the beginning.
I don't think we disagree, it's more like we see see the same thing from two different persepctives. It was indeed the wrong question that led to the unspecifiec negative answer which again of course led to "interesting times".
 
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OrinB

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Brexit it not falling apart due to the politicans being incompetent; it is falling apart because the referendum was flawed from the beginning. It was asked in a way that completely ignored how politics do work.
Brexit is falling apart because a referendum should never have been considered in the first place! Nor the result used as a bible with which to bash people with. Politicans have always been incompetent, especially when using referenda to weasel out of making decisions for themselves.
 

Kara Spengler

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Brexit it not falling apart due to the politicans being incompetent; it is falling apart because the referendum was flawed from the beginning. It was asked in a way that completely ignored how politics do work.
It is a bit more complex than that. It was supposed to be advisory only and instead was taken as a mandate. You can be sure if the latter was going to be the case much more thought would have gone into it! Maybe having more than 2 options (with or without ranking the options if any were unfeasible).
 
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