Brexit.

Innula Zenovka

Nasty Brit
VVO Supporter 🍦🎈👾❤
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
1,756
SLU Posts
18459
Interesting and maybe hopeful... the spreadsheet here shows that the higher the support for remain in an area the higher the turnout was in the EU elections.

I think that the interesting and important question about the results, after Sunday's count, is going to be how many Labour and Conservative supporters simply stayed at home this time, and what they do in the next General Election.

EU elections are strange, in that you can safely abstain or register a protest vote without really worrying about who actually gets elected.

The big question come the next election is going to be whether remain-supporting Conservatives are going to feel able to vote for a party led by (God help us) Boris Johnson or whether they're willing to risk seeing Jeremy Corbyn as PM by abstaining or voting for a remain candidate. Similarly, leave-supporting Conservatives, unhappy about being asked to vote Conservative again when the Tories have failed to deliver Brexit, will have to decide whether to risk voting for Nigel Farage's party or risking Corbyn as PM.

Equally, disenchanted Labour supporters will have to ask themselves if they want to risk a Tory government apparently set on a chaotic no-deal Brexit if that's the only way of leaving the EU and, even if they support Leave, they have to ask themselves whether they so badly want to leave that they'll be willing to put up with the consequences for the NHS, jobs, benefits and pensions that likely attend Johnson or whoever it is.

The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that Vladimir Putin's chaps are playing a blinder here trying to undermine faith in democratic institutions in both Europe and elsewhere, and to undermine the -- somewhat over-optimistic -- faith many people have had over the last 30-odd years that liberal capitalist democracy is the natural and self-evidently superior state of affairs to which all countries naturally tend, given time and left to their own devices.
 

Dakota Tebaldi

Well-known member
VVO Supporter 🍦🎈👾❤
Joined
Sep 19, 2018
Messages
1,333
Location
Gulf Coast, USA
Joined SLU
02-22-2008
SLU Posts
16791
The opening sentence of her speech:

I do actually believe she sincerely means it . But as the old saying goes, the road to Hell is paved with good itnentions.
Sometimes you earnestly try as hard as you possibly can, and just nothing you do works. I been there before. I think most of us have, just not on this kind of stage and with this level of repercussions. I mean I get the distinct impression that May is never going to be able to live the kind of post-service life that other former British PM's normally get to live, and do the things they normally get to do.

I guess the silver lining is that the nature of May's failure has made it at least kinda-sorta narrowly possible that a newly invigorated remain faction might be able to stop Brexit from happening. Had a more competent or successful PM been at the reins, the UK would already be out.
 

Tigger

not on speaking terms with the voices in my head
Joined
Sep 24, 2018
Messages
581
Another interesting question is the impact that voting Johnson into party leader will have on both the party itself, recalling that a number of tory MPs have threatened to quit the party if he is becomes PM, and on voter intent. He is after all a very divisive figure.
 
  • 1Agree
Reactions: Innula Zenovka

Chin Rey

Lag fighter
Joined
Oct 28, 2018
Messages
234
Location
Norway
SL Rez
2013
Another interesting question is the impact that voting Johnson into party leader will have on both the party itself, recalling that a number of tory MPs have threatened to quit the party if he is becomes PM, and on voter intent. He is after all a very divisive figure.
I think it's very unlikely that's going to happen for two reasons. One is that historically it's very unusual for the early favourite to become the Tory leader. The other is that although he may be popular among some Tory voters, he hardly has any support among the MPs and leadership. The Brexiteers in the party regard him as a "traitor" (amazing how popular that word has become recently) and for the more sensible ones... well, obviously.
 

Porsupah Ree

Shy bunny
Joined
Oct 6, 2018
Messages
776
Location
Probably near London or SF
SL Rez
2005
Joined SLU
2008
A somewhat technical look at Parliamentary procedure in this quite detailed analysis of how a future PM could try to force no-deal through against Parliament's wishes, and what methods the Commons has against such:

 
  • 1Thanks
Reactions: Innula Zenovka

Innula Zenovka

Nasty Brit
VVO Supporter 🍦🎈👾❤
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
1,756
SLU Posts
18459
I think it's very unlikely that's going to happen for two reasons. One is that historically it's very unusual for the early favourite to become the Tory leader. The other is that although he may be popular among some Tory voters, he hardly has any support among the MPs and leadership. The Brexiteers in the party regard him as a "traitor" (amazing how popular that word has become recently) and for the more sensible ones... well, obviously.
Interesting discussion here


The Social Market Foundation is a very well-regarded think tank, on the centre/center right (if those terms mean much now -- John Major liked them a lot, and later they became very much associated with New Labour and Tony Blair, so now both the Labour and Conservative parties have moved well-away from them.

There's some speculation that Boris Johnson may well be attracting support from moderate Conservative MPs precisely because he lacks any sort of principle.

Rachel Sylvester, in The Times (Evenote link because paywall), warns leavers that

This is a man who wears his beliefs so lightly that he wrote two articles ahead of the EU referendum, one supporting Leave and the other Remain. There is every reason to assume he will pivot away from the hard Brexit position if it suits him politically. His hero Winston Churchill once declared after rejoining the Conservative Party, having previously defected to the Liberals: “Anyone can rat but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat.”

The Brexit purists should be careful what they wish for. It is possible that their buccaneering cheerleader ends up opening the door to Remain.

and Business Insider has more on the same lines


I think, too, that many Conservative MPs who privately dislike, distrust and probably despise Johnson may be frightened of the reaction from their local Conservative Association if they as seen as keeping the local members' favourite Tory off the final ballot.
 

OrinB

I'm here...
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Messages
130
Location
UK
SL Rez
2007
Joined SLU
23 Sept 2009
SLU Posts
4771
Collusion should never be a part of uk politics! Whether it’s been there in the past or not. Seeing it now in the open is ugly and demoralising.