Brexit.

Tigger

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Not if labour can ride to the rescue...

But Labour has refused to rule out abstaining in the second reading vote. It is highly unusual for the opposition to abstain on such a major piece of legislation, and if Labour were to adopt this approach (which is nothing more than an option at the moment, based on this afternoon’s briefing), anti-Brexit members would be alarmed.
 

Innula Zenovka

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I think -- understandably, since that's their job -- journalists are speculating rather too enthusiastically about Labour's refusal to rule out abstaining on a second reading vote for the Withdrawal Agreement bill. I mean, I wouldn't expect either side to rule anything in or out while they're still negotiating, even though that doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
 

Sid

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So what next now?
Meaningful votes 263 to 7348?

To me only 3 workable options left: Second referendum, general elections or no Brexit at all.
 
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Innula Zenovka

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So what next now? Meaningful votes 263 to 7348?
The Guardian reviews the possible options: Cross-party Brexit talks have collapsed – so what happens now?

It's too early to say how it will play out, though presumably the government will attempt to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement bill and see how that goes, while making it very clear that the only alternatives to the deal on offer are to leave with no deal or to revoke the Article 50 notification.

What happens after that, assuming the WA bill fails, is anyone's guess. The argument for a second referendum is that it takes the responsibility (and subsequent blame) for the no-deal/revoke decision off the shoulders of party leaders and MPs and passes the buck back to the electorate, thus giving MPs a let-out.

However, there are very good arguments against both the principle and practicality of a second referendum and it may be that TM, at the same time she announces the date she intends to step down as PM also announces that she and her government have done all that's humanly possible to bring about the outcome of the 2016 referendum but, since Parliament is not prepared to accept the Withdrawal Agreement and is not prepared to accept a no-deal outcome either, the only course of action open to her is to ask Parliament to accept a short bill authorising her to revoke the WA, and leave it up to her successor -- presumably after another general election -- to seek a subsequent mandate for withdrawal should he or she think that's a good idea and if there's a majority for it in a new parliament.

That would require Labour's support to get the bill through, I think, and there's no way Corbyn could try to whip his party against supporting revocation, even if he told them to abstain, so both sides would be seen to share responsibility for a decision that's bound to be unpopular with many of their voters.

We'll see.
 
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Beebo Brink

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I used to read this thread every day, then I just collapsed out of exhaustion. No matter how hard I tried to keep up, events unrolled faster than my understanding and the finish line kept yanking farther away. This is my monthly check-in to see if anything has been decided yet. At some point that may become an annual check-in...
 

Sid

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The subject is too important for us Europeans, to have it on a back burner.
But I could perfectly live with a quick decision by the British government.
Let's say before the end of next week?

No miraculous new solution will pop up out of the blue. The possibilities and impossibilities are perfectly clear.
I don't understand what keeps them waiting, other than the fact to run down the clock again.
 

Innula Zenovka

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The subject is too important for us Europeans, to have it on a back burner.
But I could perfectly live with a quick decision by the British government.
Let's say before the end of next week?

No miraculous new solution will pop up out of the blue. The possibilities and impossibilities are perfectly clear.
I don't understand what keeps them waiting, other than the fact to run down the clock again.
What keeps them waiting is that there's no parliamentary majority for any course of action, with the result that there's a clear majority against anything anyone tries to do.

The only three possible outcomes are accept the Withdrawal Agreement, leave with No Deal, or Revoke Article 50. The first two are unacceptable to the great majority of opposition MPs, whatever their party, and a substantial number of Conservative MPs. The third -- at least without a confirmatory referendum -- is currently unacceptable to the Government and most Conservative MPs, the DUP and a substantial minority of Labour MPs.

A new Conservative leader isn't going to be able to change the parliamentary arithmetic, and it's doubtful that a general election -- which can't happen until the Conservatives choose a new leader -- would change that much, though TM's successor may try.

There are various paths forward, through this deadlock, but they all take time. The best the EU can do -- for the interests of the EU 27 and the UK and the world economy (because the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal would have far-reaching effects on economies round the world, at least equivalent to the banking crisis of 2008, to my mind) -- is to give the UK time to resolve things internally.

The longer the UK remains in the EU, to my mind, the more likely it is that we will revoke A50 and become a full member of the EU again, committed to "remain and reform." What we're seeing at the moment is looking more and more like the break-up of the Conservative Party. To my mind, nothing -- other than a chaotic no-deal Brexit -- is going to happen before that resolves itself one way or another, which won't happen until after the outcome of next week's elections and the election of a new Conservative leader (and possibly a general election soon after that, though I rather doubt the new PM will want to call one).

Donald Tusk gets the idea. Just leave us alone and ignore us for a bit, and let things work out as the psychodrama that is the current Conservative Party takes its course.
 

Porsupah Ree

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As things stand, my primary concern is the (likely) coming indicative votes - specifically, the ordering presented by the Speaker. Previously, they've all been presented on the basis that if any gained a majority, the ones following would not be voted on, removing them from the pool of possibilities; and so far, if I'm correct, Kyle-Wilson has only been in third position, with Clarke's "Common Market 2.0" coming first - and the latter was approaching a majority, falling short by about six votes in MV3.

The key to stopping Brexit, of course, is for Kyle-Wilson to pass (somehow; it was also falling short, though with an interesting vote spread, with the largest number of votes in favor, but also against), bringing with it the crucial Popular Vote. Not that a Remain vote can be taken for granted for one second, but that's the only viable path, bearing in mind a unilateral invocation of A50 was rejected upon legal challenge - an attempt by any government to unilaterally revoke A50 might well suffer the same fate.
 
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Chin Rey

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This is my monthly check-in to see if anything has been decided yet.
Latest news: May invited Labour to discuss the situation and she offered to ignore all their demands in return for letting them share the blame. For some unknown reason Labour decided they couldn't accept this generous offer so it all fell through.

This is of course a huge and unexpected disappointment for poor Theresa May so her party, being concerned of her welfare, is trying to find a replacement so that she can take a well deserved long rest. They thought they had two candidates that were very well qualified to succeed her but it turned out one of them, a gentleman named Baldric, isn't a member of the party so it looks as if Boris Johnson will win by walkover.
 
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