Change UK leader Heidi Allen said David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, had “clearly done his research” on the mechanics of a Final Say vote when she attended talks alongside Liberal Democrats Sir Vince Cable and Jo Swinson.
Sir Vince said Mr Lidington had asserted that holding another vote would be “perfectly practical” during the meeting. In the wake of the Tories’ poor local election showing, Ms Allen said she felt there was “more of an open door” among senior Tories towards another referendum.
She said: “He was all over the detail of the legislation and how complex legislation would be, how many days of debate it might need, the timetable might look like, how it would fit around summer recess."
Shame that this is only going to matter if there is another referendum though. At this point, without that direct message, anyone who votes for Labour will be counted as a vote for Leave because that's what Labour has decided it wants. Same with Tories and of course same with The Brexit Party. Those parties have already made their decision and will do it regardless of what anyone else says.Aha! Finally, I've found some more useful Brexit polling info. ^_^
Data's gathered from a variety of outfits, including ComRes, Survation, YouGov, BMG, TNS, and more.
Latest data point is 54.3% remain, 45.7% leave; however, this is with undecideds removed. The last two polls had, for example, 4% and 10% undecided. Nonetheless, the trend would seem valid.
True enough. At least, as far as official Labour policy goes, and its current interpretation by the leadership - that said, I remain inclined to feel that the dynamics haven't shifted much from the last rounds of voting, so getting a deal passed, even if blessed by both May and Corbyn, remains a high bar to pass, thankfully. But why Corbyn insists on trying to straddle the two sides at this stage, when everyone else has perfectly clear positions.. still, that's how it is, and I'd be very surprised if it works in Labour's favor on the 23rd.Shame that this is only going to matter if there is another referendum though. At this point, without that direct message, anyone who votes for Labour will be counted as a vote for Leave because that's what Labour has decided it wants. Same with Tories and of course same with The Brexit Party. Those parties have already made their decision and will do it regardless of what anyone else says.
Corbyn's problem is that he is leader of a party of whose MPs some 60% represent constituencies that voted "Leave" in the referendum. A substantial minority of his MPs, furthermore, support some form of Brexit, and so too does Len McCluskey, who leads the largest (I think) trades union affiliated to the Labour Party. Furthermore, a considerable number of Labour's target seats, which it must win in order to stand any chance of forming the next government -- whether on its own or in coalition with the SNP and other smaller parties -- also voted Leave.But why Corbyn insists on trying to straddle the two sides at this stage, when everyone else has perfectly clear positions.. still, that's how it is, and I'd be very surprised if it works in Labour's favor on the 23rd.
Opinium for the Observer have Westminster voting intentions of CON 22%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 11%(+5), BREX 21%(+4), GRN 6%(+2), ChUK 4%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday, and changes are from late April. Full tables are here.
ComRes for BrexitExpress have voting intentions of CON 19%(-4), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 14%(+7), BREX 20%(+6), GRN 5%(+2), ChUK 7%(-2), UKIP 3%(-2). Fieldwork appears to be all on Thursday, and changes are since mid-April.
Both polls have Labour and the Conservatives rapidly shedding support, with support growing for the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit party. I suspect we are seeing a combination of factors at work here, most obviously there is the continuing collapse in Conservative support over Brexit, a trend we’ve been seeing since the end of March, with support moving to parties with a clearer pro-Brexit policy. Originally that favoured UKIP too, now it is almost wholly going to the Brexit party.
Both polls also had voting intention figures for the European Parliament elections
Opinium Euro VI – CON 11%, LAB 21%, LDEM 12%, BREX 34%, GRN 8%, ChUK 3%, UKIP 4%
ComRes Euro VI – CON 13%, LAB 25%, LDEM 14%, BREX 27%, GRN 8%, ChUK 6%, UKIP 3%
Good morning. The pollster changes but the song remains the same: the Brexit party on course to win the European parliamentary elections, Labour still just about in second place, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in a battle for third, the Greens in a strong fourth place, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists doing well in their own theatres, and Change UK and Ukip bobbing along the bottom.
If the polls are to be believed, the Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats are successfully making themselves the vehicles of choice for both poles of the referendum debate, with dire consequences for Labour and apocalyptic ones for the Conservatives. According to polls of Westminster voting intention, the defection of Leave and Remain voters isn't just a European affair but a national one, too. If repeated at a general election, Labour would win 316 seats, short of a majority but more than capable of taking office, with the Conservatives well back on 179 seats, the SNP on 55 seats, the Brexit party on 49 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 28 seats, Plaid Cymru on four seats and the Greens on on one.
All very exciting, but worth taking with at least a moderately-sized pinch of salt. It's helpful to remember that since the switch to the proportional D'Hondt system, these elections have been won by William Hague, Michael Howard, David Cameron, and Nigel Farage: that is to say, converting European election triumph into general election success is the exception, rather than the rule.
We shouldn't forget either that in the 2010-5 parliament, Ukip won the European elections and two by-elections. At the general election it won just one: Clacton, where it had the benefits of the most pro-Ukip demographics of the whole country.
It's also worth remembering that consistently in the run-up to the 2014 European elections, enthusiasm for Ukip bled over into what people told pollsters about the Westminster elections, with that party consistently polling at the 18 to 20 per cent mark. They got 13 per cent in the 2015 general election.
One reason why these elections are tricky for both the Conservatives and Labour is their most powerful card - that thanks to our appalling electoral system, only a vote for one can be certain of removing the other from office - is not in play.
It is certainly possible that supporters of the Brexit party will decide that 49 seats for Nigel Farage and friends and a Labour minority government backed up by one or more of the second referendum parties is a price they are willing to pay to punish the Conservatives but given the unpopularity of the Labour party in general and its leader in particular with Leave-voting 2017 Conservatives I wouldn't bet heavily on it.
The whole message of this newsletter is just utter garbage - because Comres specifically asked for the voting intentions regarding the HoC as well. Which means that we don't have to play guessing games, but that we got a clear view on the public opinion right now. And the view is consistent with the EP polls: Brexit party instant winner, Tories&Labour loosing quite much, Libdems and Greens winning some.I can't provide a link, since it comes from the newsletter the New Statesman sends to subscribers, but here's what that magazine's political editor, Stephen Bush, had to say about the EU election predictions in yesterday's post. Essentially, he warns us against making predictions about subsequent general elections based on the outcome of this forthcoming European one
Yes, but asking people now about their voting intentions in a general election to be held at some unspecified point during the next three years doesn't really tell us a great deal about what people are actually likely to do when the election actually happen.The whole message of this newsletter is just utter garbage - because Comres specifically asked for the voting intentions regarding the HoC as well. Which means that we don't have to play guessing games, but that we got a clear view on the public opinion right now. And the view is consistent with the EP polls: Brexit party instant winner, Tories&Labour loosing quite much, Libdems and Greens winning some.
Or in other word: the parties which do have a clear stance on the Brexit topic are winners; the rest are losers. Which is kind of Captain Obvious to me that the voters are fed up with both of the big parties due to their garbage performance on that topic so far.
A judge will next week decide whether to summon Boris Johnson to court after the first hearing of a crowd-funded private prosecution over claims made by the MP during the 2016 EU referendum.
Marcus Ball, who has accused Johnson of misconduct in public office, was applauded outside Westminster magistrates court on Tuesday by supporters who have helped him to raise more than £200,000 to finance the case. It relates to claims, emblazoned on the side of a bus used by the Vote Leave campaign during the referendum, that the UK sends £350m each week to the European Union.
Ball, who has has spent nearly three years preparing the case and raising funds, has instructed solicitors at Bankside Commercial. They have retained Lewis Power QC and a number of other barristers.
The timing could be merely coincidental, but part of me wonders if she isn't deliberately trying to scupper the vote - if Cheetolini doesn't galvanise opposition to the idea of being rendered a tribute state to the US, with him at the helm, nothing will.Exact the same week, when Donald Trump is going to visit the UK as well.