Anyone else getting seriously worried Trump will win in 2020?

Noodles

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Dubya got reelected on the heels of 9-11 and carried a high approval rate coming into reelection. Trump has impeachment and a fairly low approval rating, though he could still ride on Obama's economic coat-tails. Democrats have to really get their act together to have any real chance of beating him though.
I had to look up who the Democratic candidate even was in 2004 and then I had to look up because I thought John Kerry was a Republican.
 
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Pamela

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On a brute force kind of level everything can be seen as a struggle between liberal democracy versus mobbed up dictatorships and then the decisions are not that hard.
This is the basis for the broad resistance coalition. This is about preserving our democracy. Other things that we value depend on this.
 
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Anya Ristow

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On a brute force kind of level everything can be seen as a struggle between liberal democracy versus mobbed up dictatorships and then the decisions are not that hard.
That's the struggle we want to fight. It's easy to pick sides. Unfortunately, the fight we're actually having is propagandizing plutocracy vs mobbed up dictatorship.
 
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Romana

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Nothing was done to convice his base followers that it would be really bad when he's at the trigger again.

Nothing will change ........ again :(
I’m curious what you think could be done to convince his base followers?
Have you tried talking to one? I don’t just mean someone who voted for him, I mean his hardcore base. The cult. The self-brainwashed. The racists, the proud ignoramuses, the ones who have to have someone to hate. What would you say to them to convince them?

And what’s’a’ again’? This is the first time he’s up for reelection, and the last (it better be, anyway).
 

Brenda Archer

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That's the struggle we want to fight. It's easy to pick sides. Unfortunately, the fight we're actually having is propagandizing plutocracy vs mobbed up dictatorship.
I don’t deny there are both internal and external struggles. In a cyber age, they are not even distinguishable.

This means we can define mob-collaborating plutocrats as traitors.

People have to be willing to assert that We own it - the democracy, the commons, the natural world, ourselves. The idea that private ownership means more than the law is the propaganda we need to learn to ignore.

Otherwise we’re just children terrorized by Abusive Daddy (they’re fighting a last ditch war for patriarchy after all). I’m done waiting for the other side to be nice.
 
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Brenda Archer

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I don't know how to even respond to that Brenda. It seems to me we are a nation controlled by the very rich. Unless something is done about that then we are doomed.
So we need to call them out as traitors at every opportunity. We can’t shoot at these traitors, but we can convince a majority that they don’t deserve obedience.
 
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Katheryne Helendale

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A good candidate would start by campaigning on putting big pharma, insurance and oil out of business and reducing the military by 90%. Like that will happen.
Unfortunately, especially in the US, this would be political suicide. Especially any talk of reducing down the military. I don't see any of this happening, or even being suggested, in my lifetime.
 
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Unfortunately, especially in the US, this would be political suicide. Especially any talk of reducing down the military. I don't see any of this happening, or even being suggested, in my lifetime.
Yes, that is my point though. Those things need to happen or we're doomed. But they aren't going to happen. So we're doomed.
 
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Bartholomew Gallacher

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you may not want to admit there are alternatives but When people are desperate they will turn to anything.... does not matter how small, bad or how far. alittle reputation good or bad can go a long way... better then none at all. they could go to Russia and Beg if they sy no just keep going down the line... India? Australia? Iraq? it doesn't need to be perfect... it may be slow... you just keep knocking on doors til someone says yes... Shame doesn't matter as long as you get what you want.
Again this is realpolitik. Realpolitik does not care about fluff like human rights, worker's rights or other stuff which we do uphold as luxury in our own countries - it cares only about getting stuff done by all means necessary and that's it.

Let's say you are an emerging economy and suddenly do need lots of more oil? Then there's not much variety on the countries you could get it, because most have entered long term deals about it and hit their production limits as well. So in other words you can't be picky and need to get what you can get, and if it's Russia, Iran or something else you simply would not care because your economy does not care as well where it does come from.

This goes likewise for the USA, and why they do support Saudi Arabia so much: it's all about the oil. Having access to it, securing and maintaining it, that's it. Because otherwise if this influx of oil would cease to be hell would break loose in the USA.

Big markets are also attractive for all types of trade. Of course the USA is much attractive, big population, one of the biggest economies in the world and despite its sheer size only one language you need to speak compared to Europe. So alone even if the USA would go more rogue trade would still happen, and long time contracts still would need to be fulfilled.

The same applies for China - at least 1/3 of the population is still considered as poor so in other words a land of big opportunities if you could enter it. So there's big money you could make there, and the truth is as long as you can make it there most countries simply put don't care about the government in Beijing.

Or for example with the mines in Kongo - there are not many big Kobalt mines being on the global, so the industry takes what it can get.

And so on and on... doing business and politics is and has always been about getting stuff done - morality only happens afterwards at best.
 
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This goes likewise for the USA, and why they do support Saudi Arabia so much: it's all about the oil. Having access to it, securing and maintaining it, that's it. Because otherwise if this influx of oil would cease to be hell would break loose in the USA.
It isn't that simple nowadays. Alternative energy sources are economically competitive. However they tend to not favor monopolies and old big money as much.
 

Bartholomew Gallacher

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It isn't that simple nowadays. Alternative energy sources are economically competitive. However they tend to not favor monopolies and old big money as much.
Actually it is that simple, because the USA are still very much dependant on oil imports. Even though the USA became the biggest oil producer on the globe again thanks to the wonders of fracking, this trend won't last forever. More important though shale oil does need special adjusted/outfitted refineries, which are simply not much existant in America and anyway American oil companies do not bother to invest money in to have them because shale oil is supposedly to be short lived, so the invest won't bring much in return. So America exports its shale oil on a large scale while importing KSA oil for use as fuel and other usagel. That's how it works nowadays.

And what many people tend to forget: there are three big sectors of energy consumption, namely:

a) transport,
b) heating/cooling,
c) electrical power generation.

Alternative energy sources so far only do matter for electrical power and heating/cooling to a certain degree; their impact on transportation is negligible, because the fleet is too small and air crafts and ships have not yet switched over to other sources.
 
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Unfortunately, especially in the US, this would be political suicide. Especially any talk of reducing down the military. I don't see any of this happening, or even being suggested, in my lifetime.
Yes, over time the military complex has contracts and/or bases ('or' in case there is some random state without a base) in every state. Even when the military says they do not want something congress gives it to them.
 

Pamela

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This extremist view is exactly how I feel.


”I don’t care if Sen. Elizabeth Warren is a mendacious Massachusetts liberal. She could tell me that she’s going to make me wear waffles as underpants and I’ll vote for her.

I don’t care if Sen. Kamala Harris is an opportunistic California prosecutor who wants to relitigate busing. She could tell me that I have to drive to work in a go-cart covered with Barbie decals and I’ll vote for her.

I don’t care if Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is a muddle-headed socialist from a rural class-warfare state (where I once lived as one of his constituents). He could tell me he’s going to tax used kitty litter and I’ll vote for him.”
 

Aeon Jiminy

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I’m curious what you think could be done to convince his base followers?
Have you tried talking to one? I don’t just mean someone who voted for him, I mean his hardcore base. The cult. The self-brainwashed. The racists, the proud ignoramuses, the ones who have to have someone to hate. What would you say to them to convince them?

And what’s’a’ again’? This is the first time he’s up for reelection, and the last (it better be, anyway).
It's not important to convince everybody. It probably is important to not drag out the old basket of deplorables again. Winning this next election is easy as pie. It's as easy pushing through a new military spending increase in Congress. You lay down what everyone wants and you give it to them. Consensus. Give a few extra billion to the fascist dictator for making this so easy. Applause. Now he will really keep us safe.

This election is only complicated because we are twisting ourselves like pretzels to be okay with not getting what we want and justifying lies and duplicity as rational. Honesty might be a first step in reaching the ignorant brainwashed cult. That, and being something different than an ignorant brainwashed cult.
 

Dain Shan

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I’m curious what you think could be done to convince his base followers?
Have you tried talking to one? I don’t just mean someone who voted for him, I mean his hardcore base. The cult. The self-brainwashed. The racists, the proud ignoramuses, the ones who have to have someone to hate. What would you say to them to convince them?

And what’s’a’ again’? This is the first time he’s up for reelection, and the last (it better be, anyway).
Well, here we go again.
No i havent talked to one of them .. im in Europe ... as i wrote ... was that a rhetorical question?

And yes, you have to convice them .. or at least shake them, or else you will enjoy not only 1 more period of trumpism.

an "again" means that he will have that 4 years again.
 

Pamela

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The Base has been infected with something like zombie virus. They may look somewhat like normal humans but they are completely impervious to truth. You cannot have a productive discussion with those that call lies facts and facts lies.
 

Romana

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Well, here we go again.
No i havent talked to one of them .. im in Europe ... as i wrote ... was that a rhetorical question?

And yes, you have to convice them .. or at least shake them, or else you will enjoy not only 1 more period of trumpism.

an "again" means that he will have that 4 years again.
It's quite possible to "talk" to one of them on Twitter, if you can stomach it. Or Facebook.
You might find it informative.
They won't even be convinced even if there is irrefutable evidence of his guilt, working for Putin, whatever.
Even if you show them his policies are hurting them.
So again, what do you think could be done to convince them?
 

Anya Ristow

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They won't even be convinced even if there is irrefutable evidence of his guilt, working for Putin, whatever.
This is very definitely the wrong approach. Russiagate and everything that came before it ("this time we got him!") inoculated him in the same way decades of Clinton scandals inoculated them. "Vast right-wing conspiracy". I don't know if the Trump version has a name, yet, but it will, and it will serve the same purpose. Ukraingate will just add to it. Basically, any unsuccessful investigation just serves the victim complex.

Even if you show them his policies are hurting them.
I visited the Trump subreddit during the debate over the tax cut. They were absolutely expecting $4000 each. I've since learned that there are a lot of upper middle class people in his base, so maybe they all hang out in T_D, but I'm more willing to believe the vast majority of them, if they are made to honestly reflect on how well they are doing, are doing a lot of "what's wrong with me if everything is so great and I'm still struggling?"

Is there an opening there?

So again, what do you think could be done to convince them?
Bernie has had success on multiple occasions getting a room full of them and talking policy. He is viewed more favorably by Fox News viewers than MSNBC viewers, and that's not just my spin. There was a poll.

You don't have to convince them all, or even a lot of them.