Afghanistan Falls

[Romana]

Had, God forbid, Trump won the election, and were we now watching similar scenes unfold in Kabul, would you disagree quite so strongly with Blair's characterisation of what was, of course, originally Trump's slogan and policy?

Biden, after all, is simply completely the process Trump somewhat unexpectedly began last November.

I didn't say anything about agreeing or disagreeing with either Biden or TFG, but if either of both of them wanted a "forever war" I would disagree with that. The stated objective was that the Afghan military should be able to eventually function without ours,
I very much doubt that TFG cared anything about the lives of the troops, or anything beyond keeping power and making money off whatever he could. I get the impression, anyway, that Biden cars me about people. At least they're real to him, whereas to TFG everyone, except maybe Ivanka, was just NPCs in his ego game.
It was TFG who committed the US to withdrawal, and set up the situation with the Taliban by meeting with them and getting some of their worst term released from prison. Biden inherited the mess, and anything anyone did world have gone wrong in some way. The difference is that TFG would have gotten a pass from his party and the press, because that's the way they rolled.
TFG was an imbecile. All he had was the slogan,and that was imbecilic.The idea of being stuck in the graveyard of empires is also imbecilic.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The Taliban held a press conference in Kabul, outlining some of their vision for the country. Al Jazeera has an English translation of it.

They say the respect the rights of women - within the framework of sharia. Since they are muslims they will be happy living within the framework of Sharia. That they want peaceful relationships to all neighboring countries, create an Islamic emirate and provide security. Also including for foreign embassies. And of course they are happy the West leaves the country.

Also that they will destroy the entire opium production, and provide alternative crops to the farmers.

Transcript of Taliban’s first news conference in Kabul

Taliban spokesperson addresses the public in first conference following the armed group’s takeover of Afghanistan.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I didn't say anything about agreeing or disagreeing with either Biden or TFG, but if either of both of them wanted a "forever war" I would disagree with that. The stated objective was that the Afghan military should be able to eventually function without ours,
I very much doubt that TFG cared anything about the lives of the troops, or anything beyond keeping power and making money off whatever he could. I get the impression, anyway, that Biden cars me about people. At least they're real to him, whereas to TFG everyone, except maybe Ivanka, was just NPCs in his ego game.
It was TFG who committed the US to withdrawal, and set up the situation with the Taliban by meeting with them and getting some of their worst term released from prison. Biden inherited the mess, and anything anyone did world have gone wrong in some way. The difference is that TFG would have gotten a pass from his party and the press, because that's the way they rolled.
TFG was an imbecile. All he had was the slogan,and that was imbecilic.The idea of being stuck in the graveyard of empires is also imbecilic.

I agree that, as a strategic decision, it was the right one, regardless of whose idea it was.

However, the execution was horribly bungled, and I fear Joe Biden has to bear some of the responsibility for the scenes we're now seeing.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

I didn't say anything about agreeing or disagreeing with either Biden or TFG, but if either of both of them wanted a "forever war" I would disagree with that. The stated objective was that the Afghan military should be able to eventually function without ours,
...
The idea of being stuck in the graveyard of empires is also imbecilic.

The original mission we were told was to drive out anti-Western terrorists inclubing Al Queda. That was done decades ago.

Building an Afghan military that could operate independently is how you get stuck in a perpetual war. The central government was weak at best and corrupt throughout. It never had widespread popular support, and the longer we stayed the worse it got. We trained a military dependent on foreign aid and support. It was never going to work on the model we were using. And we can't undo twenty years of mistakes and start over with the people who lived that history.

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

The original mission we were told was to drive out anti-Western terrorists inclubing Al Queda. That was done decades ago.

And this mission was a plain lie right from the beginning. Al-Qaeda was never an organisation with people coming from Afghanistan, nor having major roots there. All 9/11 terrorists where citizens of Saudi Arabia, including Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaeda was back then a Saudi based terrorist group with mostly Saudi finance backing. They received some basic infantry training maybe in a camp there, but who knows. More importantly though they all got their flight training in the USA.

So if the real goal would have been to target the men in the shadow behind 9/11 the logical goal would have been going to KSA. But since KSA is an American vasall state, and also has much oil with trades to the USA this never was an option. Aside that this would have been desastrous for the world economy.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

They were headquartered there.

 

[Romana]

I agree that, as a strategic decision, it was the right one, regardless of whose idea it was.

However, the execution was horribly bungled, and I fear Joe Biden has to bear some of the responsibility for the scenes we're now seeing.

Perhaps, but if TFG had been in charge it would have been ten times worse. He and his flunkies just would've lied about it and the press wouldn't have dared question.
How could it have not been bungled? Seriously.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Perhaps, but if TFG had been in charge it would have been ten times worse. He and his flunkies just would've lied about it and the press wouldn't have dared question.
How could it have not been bungled? Seriously.

Put it like this. The US's NATO partners, already nervous after four years of Trump, are now openly questioning how reliable an ally the US actually is, and I would imagine similar thoughts are occurring to people in Japan, South Korea and, of course, Taiwan.

Thoughts in Moscow and Beijing may be running along similar lines, of course.

It's not good.

 

[Dakota Tebaldi]

I'm becoming somewhat unconvinced that the withdrawal could have been undertaken in a way that looks meaningfully different from how it does now.

I think any attempt by the US to call for people to start evacuating, say, two weeks earlier, would just have prompted the government to collapse two weeks earlier.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Beijing is about as far north as Washington DC, I think

I was curious about that so looked it up. Beijing and Philadelphia are at the same latitude. DC is something like 80 miles south of that latitude so pretty close.

 

[Free]

DC is something like 80 miles south of that latitude so pretty close.

Far enough south to switch to swamp land.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Far enough south to switch to swamp land.

I don't know what you mean by that unless it is some metaphor I don't get. Places like Louisiana or Florida have lots of swamps. Not Virginia or Maryland.

 

[Free]

I don't know what you mean by that unless it is some metaphor I don't get. Places like Louisiana or Florida have lots of swamps. Not Virginia or Maryland.

History of Wetlands in the District | doee

doee.dc.gov

 

[Abigail Longmeadow]

I have had an idea rattling around. It goes like this: The Afghan war was unwinnable and unsustainable. A western democratic style government would not be able to stand on its own in Afghanistan, and would need (forever) massive US subsidy as well as thousands of US troops to prop it up. The cost (both political and financial) was becoming impossible for the US. The elite knew that getting out of Afghanistan was going to be a chaotic mess. The elite decided that now is the best time to get out, and to let Biden take the blame. Biden is probably too old to run again for president, when his term is up. So he will leave, taking all the blame on himself, and clearing the way for fresh leadership.

 

[Abigail Longmeadow]

In Republican doctrine, Washington DC is "The Swamp". It is a political slogan, meaning insiders making back room deals, protecting each others self-interest.

 

[Cindy Claveau]

I don't know what you mean by that unless it is some metaphor I don't get. Places like Louisiana or Florida have lots of swamps. Not Virginia or Maryland.

Great Dismal Swamp, Virginia

 

[Romana]

I have had an idea rattling around. It goes like this: The Afghan war was unwinnable and unsustainable. A western democratic style government would not be able to stand on its own in Afghanistan, and would need (forever) massive US subsidy as well as thousands of US troops to prop it up. The cost (both political and financial) was becoming impossible for the US. The elite knew that getting out of Afghanistan was going to be a chaotic mess. The elite decided that now is the best time to get out, and to let Biden take the blame. Biden is probably too old to run again for president, when his term is up. So he will leave, taking all the blame on himself, and clearing the way for fresh leadership.

I agree with you about the first part. I don't know about the elite, unless they're the selfish rich Republican ones, why not let TFG take the blame? He's only 4 years younger than Biden, and a lot less healthy, which puts him on a par that way imo. Might've lessened the chances of ending up with a TFG wannabe next term.

 

[Fionalein]

Put it like this. The US's NATO partners, already nervous after four years of Trump, are now openly questioning how reliable an ally the US actually is, and I would imagine similar thoughts are occurring to people in Japan, South Korea and, of course, Taiwan.

In hindsight they stopped being a reliable partner after the Iron Curtain fell. Instead of the quid pro quo nature of Cold War NATO (military support in exchange for a first line of defense) it became an organisation focused on staying in pole position after they "won"* the Cold War.

Spoiler

*they didn't won though, the Ruuskjis just decided the game was stoopid and quit playing

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

They were headquartered there.

And so you do know think that the reason for going to Afghanistan in 2001 was really to fight terrorism? Now that's cute.

It's true that the USA never had much experience with terrorist organisations in their homeland. There were only few incidents which ever happened. This means they also had not so much own knowledge about how to really fight terorrism at home.

But guess who has tons of experience in that field? Allies of the USA in Europe, like France with the OAS, the UK with the IRA in Northern Ireland, Spain with the ETA and Germany with the RAF. And of course also Israel in the middle east. You could go there and ask them, all will tell you that bombing people back into the stone age will only give you one result - the birth of more terrorists. If the target would have really been to erase terrorism, another approach would have been necessary - eliminating the reasons for the terror. This takes time, and how it's done you can witness in Northern Ireland with the Good Friday Agreement, and also how long the danger still lingers around the surface as well.

Instead the self proclaimed "war on terror" was in reality the best development programm terrorism had in a long time, it increased terror a lot.

Going to Afghanistan was mostly about one thing in reality, like always when the USA invade somewhere: access to oil and natural gas. The USA wanted to ensure safe access to the oil fields in Turkmenistan and Kazachstan in a way that it completely avoids the territory of Russia and Iran. Then look at a map and there are not so many options around to build such a thing, Afghanistan is one of the countries which makes it possible.

 

[Veritable Quandry]

You would be more effective if you stuck to discussing what I actually fucking said.