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- Sep 20, 2018
This is such a fascinating predictive tool for presidential races. Early days still, but it shows about 50/50 chance of Trump winning a 2nd term.
by Thomas NeuburgerAs a companion to this piece, "A Way-Too-Early Handicapping of the 2020 Presidential
This race stands on a knife edge, at least this early in the contest. If the Democrats nominate someone other than Sanders (or perhaps Warren), the Republicans hold 8 keys, enough to win the popular vote, with the Electoral College in doubt, at least according to Lichtman’s system.... If Lichtman’s system is right, the Republicans already have enough to win the popular vote. No recession, a military success (a major peace treaty for example), and a non-charismatic Democratic candidate could turn this squeaker into an Electoral College win for the Republicans as well. Mark me worried.