WTF Happened in Iowa?

[Kamilah Hauptmann]

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

www.smbc-comics.com

 

[Katheryne Helendale]

I don't think it's just Xers and older, with the smear campaign the Republicans have been running. I've seen the right-wing talking points parroted by millennials and zoomers. Never underestimate the power of fearmongering.

Indeed. I mentioned gen-x and older because we lived through the Cold War. But you're right, the fearmongering has spread far and wide among the generations.

 

[Argent Stonecutter]

I don't think it's just Xers and older, with the smear campaign the Republicans have been running. I've seen the right-wing talking points parroted by millennials and zoomers. Never underestimate the power of fearmongering.

And gamer trolls.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

www.smbc-comics.com

There are going to be a LOT of news pieces all on one topic this week. NH uses paper ballots.

 

[Anya Ristow]

Michael Moore talks about Iowa and other things.

 

[Caete]

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Entangled

www.smbc-comics.com

 

[Anya Ristow]

Still more errors found. Some precinct vote counts and delegate numbers are duplicated. There are a correct number of precincts, but some of them are duplicated. Which mean some are missing. And the number of delegates for those precincts aren't correct. e.g. "Sioux City 5" & "Sioux City 20" are both reporting the same round 1 & 2 totals, and delegate counts Biden 4, Buttigieg 3, Sanders, 2, but neither has 9 delegates to offer.

 

[Free]

Caucuses must die and hopefully this is the final nail in their coffin.

 

[Anya Ristow]

Caucuses must die and hopefully this is the final nail in their coffin.

I doubt the primaries are any less error prone. Actually, the Iowa caucus this year released more information than they ever have, based on negotiations with the Sanders campaign. This information allows us to catch these errors. Many of the primaries, on the other hand, are black boxes.

This, a legitimate outcome or not, is not a good look:

ETA of course there are other reasons to do away with caucuses. They require hours of commitment, so turnout is low.

 

[Casey Pelous]

As one of my drama teachers rather memorably screamed after one of our less-than-excellent moments, " It's Aunt Polly's God Damn Amateur Hour!!"

 

[Free]

What's the reference for those charts?

 

[Beebo Brink]

What's the reference for those charts?

Yeah, random overly simplistic charts without any attribution are so compelling. Not.

 

[Cristiano]

Buttigieg gets the most delegates and Sanders comes in second, Iowa Democratic Party says

The Iowa Democratic Party has released updated vote numbers and a new national delegate estimate after completing their review of 95 precincts which campaigns had flagged as potentially inaccurate.

www.cnn.com

 

[Anya Ristow]

Yeah, random overly simplistic charts without any attribution are so compelling. Not.

Let me google that for you...

...no, fuck that. If you were actually curious you could have typed fewer words into google than you did here.

"clinton sanders paper voting trail"

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Let me google that for you...

...no, fuck that. If you were actually curious you could have typed fewer words into google than you did here.

"clinton sanders paper voting trail"

This is the first hit I got

Stanford Study Proves Election Fraud through Exit Poll Discrepancies

Two researchers released a paper (not a study) examining whether primary election fraud that favored Hillary Clinton had occurred.

www.snopes.com

Mixture
About this rating
What's True
Two researchers (presumably graduate students) from Stanford University and Tilburg University co-authored a paper asserting they uncovered information suggesting widespread primary election fraud favoring Hillary Clinton had occurred across multiple states.
What's False
The paper was not a "Stanford Study," and its authors acknowledged their claims and research methodology had not been subject to any form of peer review or academic scrutiny.

Would you want to rely on this paper's conclusions? Not sure I would without further supporting evidence.

 

[Anya Ristow]

This is the first hit I got

Stanford Study Proves Election Fraud through Exit Poll Discrepancies

Two researchers released a paper (not a study) examining whether primary election fraud that favored Hillary Clinton had occurred.

www.snopes.com

Would you want to rely on this paper's conclusions? Not sure I would without further supporting evidence.

Yep. The most maddening outcome of finding an interesting correlation is "it's a conspiracy theory", and not "the process should be open and verifiable so people trust it." Nothing at all came of questions of the validity of election results in 2016, not even the Russians hacked it!

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Yep. The most maddening outcome of finding an interesting correlation is "it's a conspiracy theory", and not "the process should be open and verifiable so people trust it." Nothing at all came of questions of the validity of election results in 2016, not even the Russians hacked it!

No, the paper, by two graduate students, makes a very serious allegation, and since it apparently hasn't been subject to any sort of peer review, I think I'd like more evidence before relying on it.

What's transpired since? Did anything come of the paper and its conclusions?

ETA: To clarify, I'm worried about how the authors calculated the statistics, and what variables they allowed for, and what were the margins for error, and so forth, rather than conspiracy theories.

 

[Brenda Archer]

Yep. The most maddening outcome of finding an interesting correlation is "it's a conspiracy theory", and not "the process should be open and verifiable so people trust it." Nothing at all came of questions of the validity of election results in 2016, not even the Russians hacked it!

Why are we re-litigating 2016?

This paper isn’t very convincing by itself. Bernie threw his support behind Clinton in the general and is working to get downballot Dems elected now. You can distrust the primary process if you want - that’s reasonable. The Dem leadership certainly needs to be replaced. But Bernie himself did not advocate voting third party in 2016, or sitting it out.

 

[Free]

Uh boy...

Nevada Democrats debut to volunteers new iPad-based ‘tool’ to calculate math on Caucus Day in the wake of Iowa fiasco - The Nevada Independent

Nevada Democrats are planning to use a new caucus tool that will be preloaded onto iPads and distributed to precinct chairs to help facilitate the Caucus Day process, according to multiple volunteers and a video recording of a volunteer training session on Saturday.

thenevadaindependent.com

 

[Brenda Archer]

Uh boy...

Nevada Democrats debut to volunteers new iPad-based ‘tool’ to calculate math on Caucus Day in the wake of Iowa fiasco - The Nevada Independent

Nevada Democrats are planning to use a new caucus tool that will be preloaded onto iPads and distributed to precinct chairs to help facilitate the Caucus Day process, according to multiple volunteers and a video recording of a volunteer training session on Saturday.

thenevadaindependent.com

So much for learning from experience.