Brexit.

[Tigger]

So is that all she wrote for today or are they still debating stuff?

That was the end of it. The Tories threw a sulk took their ball and went home. They didn't so much sit on a Saturday as sit for about a third of a Saturday.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

So basically if it was agreed today it could all have been done before Halloween, and now we need tons of extra time?
I don't buy that any longer. I've heard the mantras from the British politicions way to often.
For detailed further negotiations is the transition period, that will need a few extensions.
But what we need now is finally getting to know where British politics stand: May's deal, BoZo's deal, No deal, revoking A50. There ain't more flavors available.
According to the choice there should be an as short as possible extension granted, and that's it. Totally no more room for private dreams of totally different Brexits. One of the 4 above possibilities has to be it. And No Deal is the default if nothing else is choosen next week.
That is how Europe should react this weekend IMHO.
The UK parliament wasted three years of our time already with mostly doing nothing but being against everything. It was not the EU that started the A50 procedure.
This almost endless charade has to stop ASAP.

It's confusing and frustrating, I know, but please remember it's even worse for us!

This is the situation, as I understand it.

The revised Withdrawal Agreement runs to 599 pages. Before it can become effective, it needs to be approved by both the British and European parliaments.

Because of all the focus on the backstop issue, the rest of the WA (this version or its predecessor) has hardly been scrutinised at all in the British parliament, and there's been no time whatsoever to study this latest version in detail, except that people are now beginning to note that various guarantees about workers rights and environmental and other protections seem to have been watered down in this latest iteration.

I don't know what the situation is in the European Parliament, but certainly no one here has seen any impact assessments for the latest WA, from either the EU or the British sides, and many British parliamentarians -- particularly Conservatives who wanted to support the WA -- were unwilling to proceed without having had sight of them.

Maybe the European Parliament have seen impact assessments, or maybe they're not interested (I'm sure Nigel Farage's MEPs aren't), but it's certainly an issue here.

Furthermore, there's a lot of detailed legislation needed to implement the terms of the WA in British law, since it's one thing to agree to that such-and-such will happen as a result of the WA but it's quite another to make all the necessary changes to all the relevant legislation on taxes, customs inspections and so on that's necessary actually to make it happen.

That, quite simply, cannot properly be done in a couple of weeks, and even had the WA passed today, it would have been necessary to seek an extension to allow time for the normal legislative process to take place.

Add to this the fact no one trusts Boris Johnson, and fears were growing that a loophole in the original Benn Act, designed to prevent our crashing out without a deal, meant that if he gained a majority for the WA today, this would remove the obligation imposed on him by the Act to seek an extension.

He could then either have tried to ram through thousands of pages of detailed legislation in a couple of weeks in order to keep his promise to leave on October 31, "deal or no deal" or even not have bothered, and allowed the deadline to pass without either seeking an extension or trying to pass the necessary legislation, leaving us to crash out with no deal by the inevitable process of British and EU law.

Neither of these risks were seen as acceptable by a majority of MPs, so they sought to tie his hands by attaching an amendment to the motion that the House approve the WA to the effect that Parliament would withhold its approval until it had completed the necessary legislative work.

They were successful in this, which means that Johnson is now legally bound to seek an extension (or face very serious consequences, and there's a court in Edinburgh waiting to consider the matter on Monday morning).

As soon as the amendment was passed, Johnson and the government cancelled the vote on the agreement, which can mean only that either he was determined to ram it through unscrutinised (not acceptable) or planning, once the Agreement had been approved (thus removing the obligation to seek an extension) to do nothing more about it and to allow us to crash out on the night of October 31 without a deal.

Yes, that's totally cynical of him, but that's the kind of man he is (he's just thrown the DUP under the bus, after all, having promised them his undying support only a year ago), and the kind of man his colleagues in Parliament know him to be, so they took no chances, and rightly so.

Both the EU and certainly everyone here now accepts that no resolution (other than a very disorderly no-deal) is now possible with the current Parliament, and that a general election is inevitable in the next few months.

For practical reasons it doesn't look possible to hold one before the new year (it would be theoretically possible but there are a lot of good reasons not to have an election in late November or any time in December), but there most certainly will be one very soon.

I'm now feeling a lot more hopeful than I did before that we're going to be able to secure a second referendum.

Yes, this should all have been resolved long ago, but because of successive blunders, first by May and now by Johnson, we are where we are, and to my mind it would be incredibly irresponsible for either the UK or the EU to allow final decisions something so important, which is going to have a huge impact on the relationship between the UK and the EU for years, to be taken out of impatience or frustration with our current or previous governments, understandable though that impatience and frustration certainly is -- and, as I said, it's even worse for us than it is for you, trust me.

 

[danielravennest]

The Tories and other millionaires in the government are pretty anxious to leave before the rules about offshoring your wealth come in. The others are equally anxious to stay in until we revoke our leave or have a deal which keeps Northern Ireland peaceful. I'm not sure how the dramatic tension between those two can be diffused, nor if a deal that keeps Ireland peaceful is possible.

It's not just rich people from the UK worried about the offshore rules, but all the money from *outside* the UK being held in London's financial centers. It could lead to a massive amount of funds being moved out of the country.

 

[Da5id Weatherwax]

It's not just rich people from the UK worried about the offshore rules, but all the money from *outside* the UK being held in London's financial centers. It could lead to a massive amount of funds being moved out of the country.

If the upcoming rules about offshoring wealth bother anyone, that says to me that either they are cheating on their taxes or it's crooked money anyway. And, frankly, if they want to get that kind of money out of our country then all I can do is hope that the door does hit them in the ass on the way out.

 

[Innula Zenovka]

Brexit: Johnson sends unsigned letter asking for delay, and second arguing against it

PM sends to Donald Tusk a photocopy of the request required by Benn Act, with a conflicting view in a second letter

www.theguardian.com

Boris Johnson's Super Saturday bubble bursts | John Crace

‘Trust me, I’m Boris,’ the PM had said, and to his astonishment 322 MPs decided they didn’t

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bartholomew Gallacher]

It's not just rich people from the UK worried about the offshore rules, but all the money from *outside* the UK being held in London's financial centers. It could lead to a massive amount of funds being moved out of the country.

Well according to a study of "New Financial" in March this year the financial industry already move 1.2 trillion US$ in assets from the UK to other countries, mostly Ireland, France and Luxembourg. This is what you can call a massive amount of funds being moved out.

So the question is what is going to be more impactful - the money drain that already has happened, or what would happen when the EU rule gets implemented.

And this drain is real, I've met quite some people in Greater London now in need of a second job driving cabs part time, because their former customers from several banks of the full time job moved to away to continental Europe, so that they are in need of it.

 

[Essence Lumin]

Well according to a study of "New Financial" in March this year the financial industry already move 1.2 trillion US$ in assets from the UK to other countries, mostly Ireland, France and Luxembourg. This is what you can call a massive amount of funds being moved out.

So the question is what is going to be more impactful - the money drain that already has happened, or what would happen when the EU rule gets implemented.

That is massive, almost 1/2 the UK GDP.

 

[Wesleytron]

Tim Shipman on Twitter, political editor at the Sunday Times:




Regular text too in case Twitter embeds don't always work:

"BREAKING: Boris Johnson has actually sent THREE letters to EU leaders.

"NEW: Boris’s three letters to circumvent the Benn act
1) a photocopy of the letter in the bill, unsigned
2) a covering note from Sir Tim Barrow which basically says “we’re sending you this because we have to”
3) a signed letter from Boris saying we don’t want an extension

"Johnson’s three letter strategy has been signed off by government lawyers and the attorney general. They point out he was told to send a letter not sign one. They fully expect to go to court"

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Daniel Voyager]

I can see a brexit general election happening very soon if the EU approves the extension.

This will be the third extension this year.

If the EU decides for longer than 31st January 2020 I would imagine that may be used for a public vote.

 

[Sid]

This three letters are not only a deep insult towards the UK parliament, but also one towards Brussels. He totally proves that he does not take democracy seriously. He is making a fool of himself, his country and the EU.
That man should be kicked out of office first time parliament gathers again.

 

[Kara Spengler]

Tim Shipman on Twitter, political editor at the Sunday Times:




Regular text too in case Twitter embeds don't always work:

"BREAKING: Boris Johnson has actually sent THREE letters to EU leaders.

"NEW: Boris’s three letters to circumvent the Benn act
1) a photocopy of the letter in the bill, unsigned
2) a covering note from Sir Tim Barrow which basically says “we’re sending you this because we have to”
3) a signed letter from Boris saying we don’t want an extension

"Johnson’s three letter strategy has been signed off by government lawyers and the attorney general. They point out he was told to send a letter not sign one. They fully expect to go to court"

I thought people were already say he could not do something like this?

 

[Innula Zenovka]

I thought people were already say he could not do something like this?

He can, obviously, because he has done, but it's nothing more than a demeaning charade.

Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has quite rightly said he's treating the communication as an official request, and government lawyers have on Monday to explain to the highest court in Scotland the extent to which the Prime Minister has honoured the legally binding assurances he gave the court last week about complying with the requirement to request an extension if Parliament failed to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement.

If the government lawyers try to argue that the communications, taken as a whole, are not intended as an official request for an extension, then Johnson is in breach of his binding assurances that he would comply with his legal obligations, and that would have very severe consequences for him, both political and personal.

It's infuriating to see them playing out this little farce, but it doesn't change the legal realities at all.

 

[Ariane]

Also if I were that court deciding the matter, I would put out an arrest warrant for Boris, the Attorney General and the "Government lawyers" that approved this strategy for "contempt of court".

 

[Kara Spengler]

He can, obviously, because he has done, but it's nothing more than a demeaning charade.

Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, has quite rightly said he's treating the communication as an official request, and government lawyers have on Monday to explain to the highest court in Scotland the extent to which the Prime Minister has honoured the legally binding assurances he gave the court last week about complying with the requirement to request an extension if Parliament failed to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement.

If the government lawyers try to argue that the communications, taken as a whole, are not intended as an official request for an extension, then Johnson is in breach of his binding assurances that he would comply with his legal obligations, and that would have very severe consequences for him, both political and personal.

It's infuriating to see them playing out this little farce, but it doesn't change the legal realities at all.

It does seem odd. It is not like Tusk does not know the request would be coming. Maybe long ago you could hide stuff like that but not for awhile has that been possible.

 

[Caliandris]

I voted remain and I want to remain. I feel the lies that were told, the funny money, and the complete apathy from the British Public who didn't really have strong feelings either way until it was too late are enough to call into question the result of the referendum and I want a redo. But things have become soo complicated, with the Lib Dems having voted a Tory in disguise as their leader (see her voting record) who refuses to co-operate with Labour, and so many people now so fed up with the word Brexit they'd be happy if the EU set us adrift in the Atlantic if it will only STOP. I feel so sorry for the businesses trying to cope with the "never-changing but may change next week" conditions, trying to stockpile the stuff that needs stockpiling, the NHS trying to ensure continuity of supplies for prescriptions, the ports and airports trying to cope with the possibility they may be called upon to change everything. It's insane. I don't think Brexit will be anything but bad for us as a nation, but I'm not sure this constant state of suspense is any better.

 

[Wesleytron]

"If you voted leave you shouldn't have been allowed to vote - and I can say that because I also shouldn't have been allowed to vote. I don't know why they got me involved, I don't fucking know."

 

[Innula Zenovka]

 

[Tigger]

I haven't seen this from any source other than the Mail but....

 

[Sid]

The Mail huh?
I suggest lets wait and see.